This is not good / How do we fix it / Why does god hate us?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Rastapopoulos, Jun 27, 2021.

  1. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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  2. calvin natt

    calvin natt Confeve

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    Yeah the sale price of the team won’t be impacted by whether Lillard is here or not I’m not sure why it’s brought up whenever the topic comes up. We’re talking about a multi billion dollar transaction
     
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  3. B-Roy

    B-Roy If it takes months

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    My opinion isn't necessarily that personnel dictates value. More that competitiveness is a driving factor and having good personnel obviously makes your team more competitive. Also, every team is an investment, but not every investment is the same. The franchises that have appreciated MORE compared to their previous value (mostly) are either the big market teams (Knicks, Lakers), or the ones that have been able to field more competitive rosters (like the Bucks). You can go look at the numbers yourself.

    If we are taking the report at face value, it's saying Jody doesn't want to hurt the valuation of the team because she plans to sell in the (near) future. She's treating it as an investment. Try to appreciate the team as much as possible, then sell at the very top. No way that happens if we're a bottom barrel team. That's why I think it's in her best interests to keep Dame, because it also means trying to compete. Hopefully we make a deep run, and she can sell at the height of the team's value.
     
  4. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    METHODOLOGY
    Revenue and operating income are for the 2019-20 season and net of revenue sharing and arena debt service. We use revenue multiples to calculate our team values (equity plus net debt) based on the economics of each team’s current arena deal. Our appraisals are what we think the team would sell for. So while Tsai paid $3.2 billion for the Nets, we think the team is worth more like $2.65 billion because he paid around $1 billion for a money-losing arena business. If a team has a new arena, media deal or sponsorship agreement set to kick in after the 2019-20 season, we estimate its impact on the enterprise value. Our estimated income statements and franchise values include revenue that team owners get from non-NBA events at their arena.
     
  5. B-Roy

    B-Roy If it takes months

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    Attendance is a good point. Anyways, I shouldn't have said "keeping Dame", when what I mean't was keeping the team competitive, which indirectly means keeping Dame.

    But the point about Portland supporting the team even when they're bad is a good point. For the other small market comparables, the valuation of the small market teams that are bad have not gone up YoY: Pels, Wolves, Pistons, Magic, Hornets, Hawks, Grizzlies, Thunder etc. Compared to the small market teams that are good: Bucks, Nuggets, Jazz, Blazers etc. But perhaps that wouldn't matter as much in this market since people will still show out.

    I think in Jody's best case scenario, we remain a 3-8 seed treadmill team for the next few years. That will guarantee the value of the team to keep going up. Dame getting antsy threw a wrench in those plans.
     
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  6. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    I have said this before and I'll say it again, Jody Allen does not own the Blazers. The Paul Allen Trust owns the team.

    I do think that PA truly loved the Blazers. It was his first big billionaire purchase. A purchase that he was always, up until the very sad end, deeply involved in the running of.

    While yes, I do believe that Jody is in charge of the trust, I think it's very likely that terms and conditions were written into the trust as to what exactly she can and can't do with the team.

    The last things PA would want to see done with and to the Blazers would be either a Donald Sterling type ownership where the team is only run for-profit or a situation similar to the Sonics where the team was sold and moved out of town.

    The PORTLAND Trail Blazers were a love of PA and part of his legacy. I just don't see him wanting that legacy to be tarnished.

    This is pure speculation on my part but I believe there are terms and conditions put into the trust that limit when and how she can sell both the Blazers and Seahawks.

    It was reported publicly that JA didn't like PA's spending with the Blazers when he was alive but now she is giving Olshey a free hand to spend over the cap and into tax penalty.

    I don't recall JA attending playoff games with PA when he was alive but here she is at the playoff games.

    Something has made her an engaged owner of the team and again I believe that is the terms and conditions of the trust.

    It could be something so simple that she can't sell the team until we win a championship.
     
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  7. KSF-ERIC

    KSF-ERIC Well-Known Member

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    Maybe we should’ve kept Stotts
     
  8. B-Roy

    B-Roy If it takes months

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    All of this makes sense. Not sure about the last sentence, but it's nice to believe it since that would make her number 1 incentive match the one of the fans.

    But I do think she's heard Dame's concerns and is putting in the effort from a financial perspective, which is the most she can do as an owner.

    Some random thoughts on Dame's possible issue with the FO/Ownership:

    Dame gave an interview on IG live after we lost to the Nuggets. When asked about whether he wants to stay in Portland he said something to the tune of "if we're just happy making the playoffs and being a good team, that's not good enough for me". Dame has always maintained that he wants to stay in Portland and would only want to leave if the team chooses to go a different direction. Why would he make the treadmill team comment unless he actually had reason to believe that someone in the organization is motivated to keep us in that treadmill status? Just based on when the comment was made it seems like that's what he believes the team wants to do. It would also make sense why he's giving all these non-commital answers when he's been so adamant on Portland in the past. It's up to the team to show them that they are committed.

    That said, I totally believe ownership has heard his concerns and are acting on it. The coaching search was the first step. This is what they did:
    • Fired Terry, who was still under contract, and was one of the highest paid coaches in the league at $7 million.
    • Hired one of the candidates Dame was interested in, and one that was reportedly the top choice of ANOTHER team.
    • Gave that coach 4 years of guaranteed money, part of the reason I believe was them outbidding Boston.
    • Aggressively hiring assistant coaches. I remember our previous assistants were horribly underpaid and also not very good. Now they went after in demand previous HCs like Scott Brooks, and hired away assistants from Steve Ballmer. That could not have been cheap.
    The next step is proving that level of commitment on the roster front. Some aggressive moves that improve the roster and sends us heavily into the tax would go a long way in putting action behind words.
     
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  9. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    Jody Allen is the chairwoman of the Paul Allen Trust who own the Blazers...just because she's a woman doesn't mean she is not informed or engaged in the business of the Blazers...she's been around the team often since Paul died and I think all this banter about her being out of the loop or lacking interest in the franchise is purely fan driven.....I think what people are saying about Jody is what some said about a female coaching...that the gender works against them...fact is, it doesn't or shouldn't. Jody before last season said she wanted to see winning with the team and not winning was unacceptable...Paul was very close to his sister and had plenty of time to make his wishes be known to her about the future of the franchise...there's nothing to worry about in our ownership culture in my view.
     
  10. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    This is exactly what I want Lillard to say.

    It's what the vast majority of us fans want.

    We can't say this and if we do who do we say it to?

    When you have a once-in-a-generation player on your team like Lillard if your focus isn't using him to get the team a championship then you're an idiot.

    If Lillard wasn't on the team then I would be happy with just getting to the playoffs.

    But he's here, under contract, with his family, get this man the tools and teammates to get what all of us want!
     
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  11. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    Prediction: LeBron will be the next Blazer owner.
     
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  12. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    ya the trust is gonna make out like bandits with the increase in valuation regardless of Dame's presence. PA bought the team for 70 mil. Even with inflation, it's one of his better investments. Doubt a potential impending sale will impact the basketball moves much (or vice versa).
     
  13. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    I think she might be sticking around to see this new upcoming TV deal in 2025. The last one had a massive impact on the valuation of these teams.
     
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  14. ehizzy3

    ehizzy3 RIP mgb

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    that would be amazing. We need some rich paul love
     
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  15. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    It's been 3 years since Paul died. If Jody was going to dump the Blazers, I'm not sure why this would be the year, rather than, say, 2043.

    barfo
     
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  16. B-Roy

    B-Roy If it takes months

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    Agreed, but don't think that was management (or Olshey's) preference until it was pushed onto them by Dame. And even then, we will need to wait and see the roster moves in the next month.

    I'm pretty down on both ownership and management at the moment. Not a ton of confidence in them. I put it at 50/50 in terms of just running it back or making some really aggressive moves. Hope it's the latter for sure.
     
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  17. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    I guess you didn’t get the memo that 2021 is the panic year for Blazers fans. :smiley-195517897341:smiley-195517897341:smiley-195517897341
     
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  18. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko boomer maniac Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Every year is the panic year for Blazers fans.

    barfo
     
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  19. tykendo

    tykendo Don't Tread On PDX

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    Time to get Dame involved in having a piece of ownership if he's game.
     
  20. tiredhunter

    tiredhunter Well-Known Member

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    Thinking of what the roster was when Balmer paid 2bil, when the prior owner was being forced out is an argument against roster being part of valuation.
     

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