he has repeatedly referenced FRPs being worth more to a team like Portland than others because we aren't much of a FA destination, and the draft is one of our only means of acquiring high level talent (that too, cost controlled). I agree with him in this aspect a bit even if he overstates the small market thing. So not throwing away picks in deals makes sense to me. This is why the 2017 draft really hurts us. THAT was the key in all this. He's whiffed on another draft before in his career (Aminu over George/Hayward), but the Collins pick was the most consequential I think.
ya that's why i disagree with the notion that he hasn't taken risks. He misjudged Roco as the missing piece and drastically overpaid for him. Hell, I thought he was gonna make us much better too.
When the supply for FA's is low in wanting to come to Portland, I can see why we may end up overpaying someone. Im hopeful with Chauncey and his network of connections within the league, helps.
I disagree to an extent, when you have someone like Lillard on the roster. When you have a win-now player you should do whatever you can to surround that player with as much talent as possible. The draft is one way, but it should only be the primary source earlier in the star's career because 1.) You're likely to be worse, so those picks will be higher, and have a higher chance of turning into a good player. 2.) Picks take awhile to develop. You can't afford to wait 3-4 years for a pick to become starter quality. By that time your star will be 3-4 years older and the pick will be up for an extension anyways. You have a small window for those picks to actually turn into a good player. When your star is already aging those picks should be used in trades to get proven win-now pieces that can make your team better. Dame wasn't young when he came into the league, he was already 22. So our window with him was already limited from the beginning. Now we are beginning to see the results of Neil's overly conservative strategy. What picks since drafting Dame have turned into a starting quality player? I think only CJ, and that pick came the year after drafting Dame. We have gotten literally nothing out of our picks since then. And yeah, execution can still fix a bad strategy. In 2017, we could have came out with 3 starting level players. Even if we had gotten 2 or 1 we would at least be in a better situation than we are now. Instead we have 0. We're in this position because of Neil, and I don't see how he has any choice but to push all in with multiple unprotected firsts.
a 16th and 23rd pick doesn't qualify as a very risky trade. A couple of non-lottery picks for a 4th-5th option isn't a big trade either
That was not "risky". It was two lottery protected firsts, and it was structured in a way that we would be out of our debt to Houston by the end of this year. Also, putting the protection on those picks means we couldn't move any future firsts during last season without removing the protection on the 2022 pick, something that Neil clearly wasn't willing to do. When you protect your picks like that you remove all the upside a team gets for trading for them, and diminish their value. If you see the entirety of all of Neil's moves here in Portland I would say they are all calculated risks that are on the overly conservative side.
think all this is based on the premise that other teams actually wanted our draft picks in exchange for a high level player. i think that basis is flawed to begin with -- we don't really know what was available, and if any other team found our assets interesting enough to give up a big time player. We traded away 1 pick for Afflalo, 2 for Roco, and essentially 3 for Collins. All three were mistakes, effectively.
...I don't think it matters since we have his bird rights if the org wants to prove to Dame they share the same "championship urgency" then they will match any offer -- regardless of Dame's future (or CJ's for that matter)
well the fire is definitely on Neil's ass now and he's close enough to the end of his contract to make moves for the short term. Let's see what he can do-- unfortunately as you have referenced, our hands might be more tied now than ever before with the lack of assets. also don't want to dismiss his retention of terry for this long as a conservative move. that guy did nothing to improve the trade value of our young guys (Trent was clearly the exception) . Turning a second rounder into a ~20 mil player in Powell (back to this thread ) would be a big return on investment.
bird rights simply means we can go over the cap to retain him. but powell can choose to go wherever he wants to as an unrestricted free agent.
Looks like you're coming around to how bad of a GM he is. Obviously he has some hits, most GMs do, but his misses and more importantly his strategy has been all wrong since Aldridge left.
Trade our PLAYERS. Holding on to CJ for this long is criminal. Retaining our non-starters as "assets" as a conservative move was a mistake. Trade picks 5-7 years out and remove the protection on them. Like I said, when you trade a pick in the next year it's easier to project where that a pick will be. A 16-30th pick has no upside for the team dealing for it. Just look at what type of "go for it" deals have been made by other teams: Heat, Clippers, Lakers, Mavs, Rockets, Nets, Bucks etc. etc. We know what the godfather package have gotten in the past. Butler, George, Davis etc. have all been moved for similar deals. They're not even in the same level as Neil's. The Covington trade was the "riskiest" by far, but if that's all you have to show for 9 years of Dame's tenure I think you're doing it wrong.
I have long felt that he was maybe average, but not nearly as bad as some people here claimed. He works well along the margins and seemed to have a good rapport with agents, and mainly had strong support from Dame. And his record with second round picks is undeniable (every single 2nd round pick was a hit). But he clearly needs help from the PR perspective and has a tough time building teams and finding the right fits. He "never studied chemistry" as they say, and cared a lot more about asset acquisition than actually fielding a team that was greater than the sum of its individual parts.
Even in the article Haynes mentions the out of position thing. I don't think Norm will like that to continue.
The plan better not be another three guard lineup. I want one of CJ/Norm traded, and by that I mean CJ.
great...Blazers have a GM who is a master of the 2nd round; a bozo of the 1st round; an idiot with free agents, and afraid of risky trades. What could go wrong?
I think we're starting to see that the support from Dame was just Dame's loyalty. Unfortunately, it now appears that loyalty is not unconditional (nor should it have ever been).
I seriously doubt that Powell would sign on to be a SF, or sign on to be a backup SG. Now, you have the uncertainty about Dame to throw into the mix. Portland will likely have to overpay, by quite a bit, to re-sign him. Or trade CJ
