Hollinger released his free agent PF rankings. I’ll post the relevant sections Tier 3: Midlevel guys 2. Lauri Markkanen, Bulls (restricted): $11,916,654 (23rd overall) One of the offseason’s top mystery men, Markkanen has never quite blasted off in Chicago and proved a difficult fit in particular with Nikola Vucevic. Markkanen is a minus defender and doesn’t rebound nearly enough for a player of his height, but despite those deficiencies, there’s a lot to like. He’s a potent inside-outside threat who hit 40.2 percent of his 3s last season and nailed 58.2 percent of his shots inside the arc, pouring in 25.6 points per 100 possessions overall. A restricted free agent, Markkannen is likely to have interest outside Chicago and may only have tepid interest from the Bulls. The latter depends in part on Chicago’s other cap room scenarios, but the Bulls could have enough room to do a renegotiate-and-extend arrangement with Zach LaVine if they let Markkanen walk. Alternatively, that money could be put toward a point guard, with Chicago already linked to a couple of the free-agent point guards we mentioned earlier this week. 3. Paul Millsap, Nuggets: $11,284,924 Paul Millsap is 36 years old, but he can still play. While he doesn’t stretch the floor from the four spot as much as you might hope (34.3 percent from 3 last season and career), he’s still strong enough around the basket and on the glass at 6-foot-7 to be a net positive. The question is whether Denver can afford to bring him back. Slotting both Millsap and Will Barton into their room under the luxury tax will be a tight fit, and in any event, the Nuggets might prefer using their midlevel exception (MLE) to bringing back Millsap at his age. Michael Porter Jr.’s development as the long-term starter at the four doesn’t help Millsap’s case. Regardless of where he ends up, Millsap is likely looking at a one-year deal because of his age, but he could be a shorter-term overpay for a team with space that needs a quality four. 4. Nicolas Batum, Clippers: $10,595,480 Nicolas Batum’s bounce-back season with the Clippers showed he can still contribute at a high level with his switchability, shooting and basketball IQ. But that means the Clippers are in a tough spot to retain him. He was on a minimum deal, and the Clippers have no Bird rights, meaning they would have to use their taxpayer MLE to have any shot at keeping him. Batum’s market could end up even stronger than that — he’s only 32 years old, believe it or not, and he should have interest from a number of teams around the midlevel exception. 5. Derrick Jones, Jr. Blazers (player option): $8,264,796 Derrick Jones Jr. has a player option for $9.7 million that I suspect he’ll invoke after he gradually fell out of the Blazers’ starting lineup due to his lack of offensive punch. While BORD$ is keeping the faith, it seems likely Jones will be a trade target for a Portland team that will be trying to upgrade the roster while staying out of the luxury tax. 6. Doug McDermott, Pacers: $7,947,236 Shooting never goes out of style, and Doug McDermott made 38.8 percent of his 3s last season, which is why he’s likely to have a lot of interest around the MLE. McDermott is also a canny cutter who really weaponizes his 3-point threat with his off-ball movement, shooting 64.1 percent on shots inside the arc and displaying particularly good chemistry with Domantas Sabonis. Indiana has full Bird rights on McDermott but has a tight squeeze under the luxury tax if it wants to keep both him and T.J. McConnell; in the absence of a trade, the Pacers will likely have to choose one or the other. If it’s not the Pacers, expect several teams to have interest in McDermott with the full MLE. 7. Zach Collins, Blazers (restricted): $7,839,102 What’s a fair valuation for Zach Collins at this point? He seemed on his way to becoming a plus backup, if not a long-term starter, before a series of injuries sent him sideways, but has only played 11 games over the past two seasons. Collins required additional foot surgery after the season, leaving his availability for the start of next year in doubt. That health history puts a major damper on his free-agent market and leaves one to wonder if the Blazers will even submit a qualifying offer for $7.4 million on him. Collins might be best off signing a one-year deal with Portland, rehabbing his injury and entering next summer’s market as an unrestricted free agent with full Bird rights. 8. Nemanja Bjelica, Heat: $7,817,627 The Kings couldn’t find minutes for Nemanja Bjelica before the trade deadline because they were committed to Marvin Bagley, and Miami seemed weirdly uninterested in putting him on the court after acquiring him midseason. Despite that, Bejlica can offer an offensive weapon from the four spot with his ballhandling and shooting, especially as a distributor. Even last season in his limited role, he averaged 5.6 assists per 100 possessions. Bjelly slumped to 31.8 percent from 3 last season, but he’s a 38.7 percent career marksman and at 33 should have at least another good year or two left in the tank. He’s likely looking at lower offers than this BORD$ valuation after he hardly played last year, but the room or taxpayer exception seems like a fair price. 9. Rudy Gay, Spurs: $7,543,075 Rudy Gay turns 35 in August but has had a pretty productive four-year run as a combo forward off the bench in San Antonio. Last season he shot 38.1 percent from 3 and averaged 25.6 points per 100 possessions, but with the Spurs rebuilding, he’s likely looking at a new destination. Gay made $14.5 million last year and is near-certain to see a pay cut, plus at his age, he’s probably looking at a one-year deal. But with so many teams having their full MLE, he should have a lot of interest from playoff contenders at or near that price point. Tier 4: More than minimum, less than midlevel 10. Maurice Harkless, Kings: $7,330,851 I’m as surprised by this number as you are, and I suspect Maurice Harkless would be too after struggling to gain traction in Miami at the start of last season. However, he played significantly better in Sacramento, shooting 58.2 percent on 2s while adding some disruptive defense as an undersized four. Also, despite being around seemingly forever, Harkless is only 28 years old. The key issue here is that Harkless doesn’t provide much shooting or rebounding and is a low-usage offensive player who only scored 12.1 points per 100 possessions last season. His defense has value, but he’s probably looking more at the biannual exception than the type of money BORD$ suggests. 11. Georges Niang, Jazz: $6,888,948 The minivan shot 42.5 percent from 3 last season and didn’t try to do anything he couldn’t, so while he filled a fairly limited role, he was pretty effective within it. Utah had him on a minimum deal last season and will have full Bird rights, but luxury-tax concerns may prevent the Jazz from paying Niang his market value in free agency. With floor-spacing role players always in demand, he should have a lot of interest around the taxpayer MLE and the room exception. 12. Trevor Ariza, Heat: $6,479,349 Trevor Ariza played 30 games for Miami after spending half the season chilling on Oklahoma City’s salary-cap sheet and did the usual Ariza stuff: shooting decently enough from 3 (35.0 percent) while playing solid defense and otherwise mostly staying out of the way. He’s 35 now, but his last seven NBA seasons have been so statistically similar as to be basically indistinguishable. Ariza’s market is pretty clear at this point: Playoff-contending teams in need of a veteran combo forward are going to take a long look at him on a one-year deal, with his price likely falling somewhere between the taxpayer and full MLE. 13. Blake Griffin, Nets: $5,525,449 Blake Griffin looked utterly washed in Detroit but seemed reborn once he showed up in Brooklyn, moving into the Nets starting lineup in the playoffs and delivering three straight double-figure games against Milwaukee. He’s 32 and knee problems have robbed him of a lot of his former explosiveness, but his shooting and ball skills let him contribute without playing above the rim. The Nets are in a bit of a bind if they want to keep Griffin, especially if he has other quality offers. Brooklyn can only offer him a minimum without going into exception money and may need to use its taxpayer MLE on Griffin just to keep in him in Brooklyn. 14. JaMychal Green, Nuggets (player option): $5,276,257 JaMychal Green has a player option for $7.6 million next season, leaving him with a tough decision that likely depends more on years than the money. One presumes Green’s general market is likely the same range as it was a year ago, but the 31-year-old would probably like to lock in more than one year at this point. Green’s value to the Nuggets is pretty clear: He shot 39.9 percent from 3 while toggling between the four and five and did a solid job on the boards. If he opts out, the question is whether the Nuggets can afford to bring back both him and Millsap (above); and if not, which one they would pick. 15. Al-Farouq Aminu, Bulls (player option): $5,055,618 Listed here for posterity only, as Al-Farouq Aminu already chose to opt in to his $10.1 million deal for next season. 16. Jarred Vanderbilt, Timberwolves (restricted): $4,658,526 Jarred Vanderbilt emerged as a rotation piece in his third pro season, and at 22 hits restricted free agency in a promising situation. While he’s not a 3-point threat and isn’t strong enough to play center, Vanderbilt is a top-notch rebounder who runs in transition, and the result is a lot of layups and dunks. He was good enough to push his way into the Wolves’ starting lineup and establish himself as an important part of their rebuild. However, Minnesota is in a tricky situation if it wants to keep him at a decent salary. The Wolves stand just $5 million from the luxury-tax line entering free agency, and that’s before using any exception money to address backup center or adding a much-needed wing. If Vanderbilt gets an offer sheet at the high end of his salary range, it could force Minnesota into a tough decision. 17. Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (restricted): $3,964,246 Well, there is a free agent named Antetokounmpo this summer, but it’s not the one teams were lining up cap space for through most of 2020. Giannis’ brother is an erratic offensive player, but Thanasis brings defensive intensity, rebounds and nasty finger-pointing anytime his brother dunks on somebody. This BORD$ number is on the high side, but I would expect him to return to the Bucks on a deal for the minimum or slightly above. 18. Nicolo Melli, Mavs (restricted): $3,618,228 Although technically a restricted free agent, it seems unlikely Dallas would qualify Nicolo Melli given their cap space ambitions and Melli’s tenuous fit in their rotation after being acquired from New Orleans. The Italian big man is an alleged floor spacer but shot just 31.6 percent from 3 in his two pro seasons, and because of that, it seems more likely he’ll be headed back to Europe. 19. Jeff Green, Nets: $3,485,958 Jeff Green has taken one-year minimum deals in consecutive offseasons, but his play has been good enough to warrant more than that. He surprisingly shot 41.2 percent from 3 last season — he’s at 34.0 percent for his career — but his more durable strengths are his ability to play multiple frontcourt spots and the fact that, even at 34, he virtually never gets injured. Green doesn’t rebound and isn’t much of a playmaker, but he still has enough explosion to get to the rim and finish. As with Griffin above, the Nets are in a dilemma with Green if they want to bring him back for more than the minimum. The Nets have just the taxpayer midlevel exception to pay somebody more than that and would basically have to choose between Griffin and Green. 20. James Johnson, Pelicans: $3,282,146 A back-end rotation payer in both Dallas and New Orleans this past season, James Johnson can handle the ball and attack the basket, shooting 55.6 percent on 2s. However, he slumped to 25.8 percent from 3-point range, and his lack of a perimeter threat compromises his team’s spacing when he’s off the ball. Johnson can still jump at age 34 and also has the strength to take turns as a small-ball five. He’s not for everyone, but he should have interest at the minimum or the biannual exception. 21. Torrey Craig, Suns: $2,992,975 The Suns’ defensive stopper had to settle for a minimum deal with Milwaukee in free agency last summer and is likely looking at another minimum or biannual exception deal after landing in Phoenix. Torrey Craig hardly played in Milwaukee but had the best offensive numbers of his career with the Suns (60.3 true shooting percentage, 15.5 PER), which could lead teams to look a little more favorably on him this time around. 22. JaKarr Sampson, Pacers: $2,946,386 JaKarr Sampson is a good athlete and is tough enough to play as an undersized five, but his near-total lack of shooting limits his value to an occasional bench contributor. Despite this BORD$ valuation he’s almost certainly looking at another minimum deal, whether in Indiana or someplace else. 23. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Blazers: $2,930,448 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson only played 11 games last season after signing with Portland late. His inability to shoot from the perimeter has sidetracked his career, but his defense, energy and ability to convert shots in the paint still packs some value. The 26-year-old had a solid 2019-20 season in Toronto and could be a valuable bench energizer in the right situation. 24. Andre Iguodala, Heat (team option): $2,705,101 Andre Iguodala has a $15 million team option that the Heat will almost certainly decline, although it could prove useful in a trade. If so, the 37-year-old Iguodala is likely to look at a minimum deal with a contender. He still provides solid defense, particularly with his strip move against bigs trying to post him up, but he’s lost athleticism and his offensive game has withered. Nearly three-quarters of his shots last year were 3-pointers, and he’s not a true threat from there (33.0 percent last season, 33.3 percent career). One option everybody will instantly wonder about: a potential return to Golden State, which needs to fortify its expensive roster with minimum deals. Tier 5: Minimum guys 25. P.J. Tucker, Bucks It’s odd to see P.J. Tucker down here after he played such a big role in Milwaukee’s playoff run, but he’s 36 years old and had the lowest usage rate in the entire league, finishing with a PER of 5.5 on 37.3 percent shooting. His very niche-specific role as a guy who can guard Kevin Durant in the playoffs certainly offers value to the right team, which is why one suspects a return to Milwaukee (at a sharp discount from his current $8 million salary) is probably the most likely outcome. 26. Carmelo Anthony, Blazers Melo’s renaissance in Portland has been a great story, but he’s kind of the opposite situation from Tucker — a player whose offense remains adequate but defensively gives it all back. Anthony shot a career-high 40.9 percent from 3, but the Blazers were far too indulgent with left-block post-ups for him; he made only 42.9 percent of his 2s, dragging down his overall efficiency. With Portland trying to reshape the roster and actually stop people on defense this year, one wonders if Anthony will be part of the picture in Portland, or if he’ll be looking at a minimum or biannual exception deal someplace else that needs a bench scorer. 27. Ersan Ilyasova, Jazz Surprisingly ignored in the 2020 free-agent market, Ersan Ilyasova ended up signing a minimum deal with Utah and only played in 17 games. One suspects his market may be stronger in Europe than in the NBA at this point, but Ilyasova can make 3s and takes charges in bunches. 28. Trey Lyles, Spurs Trey Lyles only played 23 games due to injuries but was effective enough when he played to warrant another look on either a minimum or biannual exception deal. Lyles is a low-usage player and isn’t quite threatening enough as a stretch four (34.1 percent career from 3) to make defenses quake, but he’s a decent rebounder and defender with a bit of craft around the basket. San Antonio has Bird rights on him, but the rebuilding Spurs may go in a different direction. 29. Markieff Morris, Lakers Markieff Morris was an unexpected defensive spark in the Lakers’ run to the title in the bubble, but his play fell off last season and he was mostly out of the playoff rotation. The 31-year-old is a theoretical floor spacer who hasn’t quite shot it well enough (31.1 percent from 3 last season, 34.1 percent career) to make that a reality, resulting in a 9.3 PER in 1,200 minutes. He’ll be looking at another minimum contract from a team in need of forward depth. 30. Solomon Hill, Hawks Solomon Hill signed a non-guaranteed minimum deal with Atlanta and worked his way into the Hawks’ playoff rotation with his defense, but he needs to contribute more at the offensive end to sustain his career. Hill shot 32.1 percent from 3 and rarely wandered inside the arc, finishing with a career-low 6.7 PER and 49.8 true shooting percentage. His size and grit will get him looks from teams that need a combo forward on a minimum deal. 31. Semi Ojeleye, Celtics Semi Ojeleye is 26 and can make 3s well enough with his feet set (36.7 percent last year, 34.9 percent career), but his lack of other offensive skill and minimal secondary contributions may not be enough to keep him in Boston for another year. Ojeleye has a strong frame and can slide his feet on defense, but his instincts often short circuit beyond that; oddly, he didn’t block a shot the entire season. Boston has full Bird rights on him, and the new Celtics GM (Brad Stevens) seemingly went out of his way to find situations to play Ojeleye the last two years, so he may have a landing spot for another year. However, Boston also has a crowded roster and an impending luxury-tax crunch. 32. Mike Scott, Sixers As a stretch big, 34.2 percent from 3 isn’t going to cut the mustard in the modern NBA, and as a result, the 33-year-old Mike Scott’s career might be on life support. He does offer a bit more defense than the typical stretch but very little in the way of shot creation or rebounding, leaving him dependent on that 3-point percentage for value. 33. Patrick Patterson, Clippers Patrick Patterson is 32 and no longer has much athletic pop; in particular, he’s become a total zero as a rebounder. However, his shooting percentages remain solid enough to keep him in the mix, hitting 35.7 percent from 3; he’s also become a reliable ball mover when nothing is there, and his rare forays inside the arc were surprisingly productive (60.4 percent on 2s). All of that probably earned him another minimum deal, whether in L.A. or someplace else. 34. Stanley Johnson, Raptors Stanley Johnson dialed back his offensive aggression and played much more as a defensive role player, slashing his usage rate nearly in half from the previous season. The change likely suits him given his iffy outside shooting and struggles to complete plays at the rim. The former lottery pick is still only 25 and should have interest from teams in need of combo forwards to fill out the bench. 35. Marquese Chriss, no team Marquese Chriss was traded to San Antonio and then waived after a season-ending injury, finishing his 2020-21 campaign after only two games. However, the bouncy 24-year-old should be on teams’ radars this offseason based on his solid 2019-20 season in Golden State. 36. Jared Dudley, Lakers Beloved in the locker room and for his IQ on the court, the 36-year-old Jared Dudley battled injuries last season and only played 12 games. It will be interesting to see if the Lakers want him to return to his role as the end-of-bench sage or will look to get younger. 37. D.J. Wilson, Rockets (restricted) D.J. Wilson got some extended run in Houston after his trade from the Bucks and looked somewhat viable, hitting 34.5 percent of his 3s on pretty big volume (9.5 attempts per 100) and scoring and rebounding at a respectable clip. The Rockets were circling the drain, of course, and posting counting stats on a team like that is always treated with suspicion. Houston isn’t going to qualify him, but he probably did enough to earn another one-year deal someplace. 38. Anthony Gill, Wizards (restricted) After several years overseas, the Virginia product only played 26 games in his first year in the NBA and struggled in his stated role as a stretch big (29.2 percent from 3). However, he was good enough around the basket to still add some value (63.9 percent on 2s), and the overall output looks pretty solid. He might be facing a return to Europe based on his limited usage, but I’d give him another look. 39. Gary Clark, 76ers A tough-as-nails defender, Gary Clark’s 31.1 percent career mark on 3s is the main argument against him, especially since he subsists almost entirely on 3s for his offense. Clark only made nine 2-point baskets all of last season, in 39 games across three teams. 40. Juwan Morgan, Jazz (restricted) Juwan Morgan only played 29 games last season, and with the regime change in Utah, the Jazz will likely be focused more on getting veteran help than internal development candidates such as Morgan.
i feel like half the guys on that list aren't PFs (iggy/batum/ariza/etc) but what is a PF these days anyway?
I think all SG/SF/PF are just wings in this league. SGs tend to be a bit shorter, PFs tend to be a big taller, but functionally no difference in their roles on offense. On defense, length and quickness is more important than height, since everyone just wants guys that can switch 1-4.
every title team for the past 6-7 yrs has switched on defense. yet our coach instead we don't switch. Will be really interesting to see how Dame does in this scheme for Team USA, but i hope chauncey implements it. it's just unfortunate that we didn't use the long wings we had last year (jones/little) at all, but these guys are clearly the key to a strong defense.
I think we meant to switch in many scenarios, but I saw guys miss so many switches I don't know if it was a personnel issue or a coaching issue. But the team was not on the same page defensively (obviously). I'm pretty sure we switched all off-ball action with Melo. I thought we looked our best on defense last year when we just simplified things by switching everything. Still not a great defensive scheme when you have Dame/CJ on the floor, but it was better than the alternative.
Holy cow! I said that I was just showing how many quality roster spots we have filled. I completely expect to give up CJ and whatever draft capital is required to get Simmons. I think that means a Nurk trade that either brings back a player like Boucher. Then we would probably want another big with the taxpayer MLE. If we can get Bobby Portis with that he would start. So no... not the same team at all. Dame, Norm, RoCo, Simmons, Portis, Boucher, Ant, DJ, Nas being the rotation. That's a team that can compete to be the best defense in the league. I also don't think we lose much with our offense especially since we'll be moving players and the ball instead of just isos or our pick and rolls having no movement away from the primary action.
I think Norm and Michael Porter Jr. would disagree strongly with you after their playoff match up. The idea that smaller SGs like Powell (who is a really good defender for his position) can guard a PF like AD is silly. The whole "positionless basketball" thing has been way overblown.
Wait... I'm confused. You are saying we don't switch? Switching is our primary method of defending the pick and roll (at least against ball handlers that are threats to shoot). We can't really afford to hedge or even institute a more typical drop coverage because Dame and CJ die on every screen. If the only improvement Billups made to our defense was getting our guards to better fight through screens, we'd be an instantly better defense.
Am i in a parallel universe? Terry Stotts never embraced any other P&R defense except for drop coverage. The few times we did switch, it never seemed like the team was connected.
Not to mention we regularly saw Covington guard the least skilled offensive player on the floor. Stotts was fucking terrible.
Yep. I'm wrong; my apologies. Went back and watched some video from several games this past season, and it does look we are trying to employ drop coverage. Unfortunately, we do end up switching a ton because frankly Nurk (or Covington) have no choice but to pick up the ballhandler. Our ability to (not) fight over and through screens is kind of astounding.
I had forgotten about Jared Vanderbilt. I would love for him to be our MLE pickup. RFA, I know, but if what Hollinger said above is accurate, he'd definitely be my first call.
