To be honest, I still think a team like the Knicks would need to be a third party in that trade and the Siakam trade. They still have a ton of young assets and cap space. Also if we are able to get either of those guys it will mean the team is looking at a much different timetable than CJ would fit into. As far as Grant being a second option, I completely disagree. He was a fantastic role player that a team decided could be a first option for a season and did alright despite the record and considering his teammates. As a second option I think he would flourish but I do think we should get more coming back in that trade. Siakam should be straight up or us adding just a little sweetener and Simmons is going to cost us but his upside is ridiculous and CJ's value with the Sixers straight across is high so no third team would probably be needed.
I have to ask...have you seen anything, at all, that shows Olshey is even seriously shopping CJ, let alone aggressively shopping him? for instance, I noticed that the initial chatter about Philly and Simmons included the Blazers as a potential suitor. However, when I read the details of the chatter, the few times there were details, it was almost all speculation but, over the last week, the reports of the teams in 'serious' talks for Simmons never included Portland. personally, I think Olshey really really wants to rinse-repeat the Dame/CJ experiment for another season. He wants a last chance to prove himself right. And the combination of Seattle ambivalence and next summer's Blazer cap will give him a green light to do so. And by then, Dame may very well be demanding a trade
I think Olshey will not make major changes until he sees what Billups does with the roster. In his mind, replacing Stotts with Billups was a game-changer - it's not the roster that's the problem.
Grant is not a good #2 option. However, I think there's 6 years of solid evidence that CJ is not a good #2 either...if you want a contender that is I don't really like the idea of CJ for Grant. At the same time, maybe the idea needs to be gauged as CJ for Grant + 10M in extra cap + a re-signed Powell. That makes the idea more digestible, but of course, I don't see why that would appeal to Detroit
Ooh, just remembered the Magic also have Michael Carter-Williams. He REALLY must be surplus to requirements. I'd like him more than Mudiay as our backup PG.
I think CJ next to Cunningham would be great for both Cade, and Detroit, because of the professionalism CJ would bring, and ability to show the youngster the right way to do things. But CJ doesn't fit their timeline( possibly a Presti type take) for their youth movement.
It seems like Derozan is there for the taking with the Lakers out and the Clippers not having cap room (or many traceable assets). I think SA would accommodate a sign n trade if we had anything to offer. I doubt Neil has the balls, but CJ and Jones to the Knicks for cap relief and a few picks, a pick or two (2nd rounders?) to SA and Derozan and a $20 million trade exemption (assuming Derozan signs for $20M per year) would work. With the cap exemption we could throw all the picks from the deal plus a few more to Detroit for Grant. They'd then be under the cap and have more picks for the future. Lillard/Simons Powell/Little Covington/Derozan Grant/Derozan Nurkic/MLE (Ibaka) That team would have a nasty edge and provide lots of spacing for Derozan. Doubt he's ready to take on a 6th man role at this point, but he could get 30 MPG, run the second unit, and sub O for D with Covington at the end of games.
I don't often agree with you but I actually appreciate very much that you create threads. I don't think you are excessive about it and you offer your thoughts as a starter. Things should be talked to death.
if the Blazers receive a player in a S&T, they'd be hard-capped. I don't think that's a situation Portland would consider as for the TPE in the situation like you describe, I'm pretty sure the Blazers would not have a 20M TPE, but rather a couple of 10M TPE's
Not only is Portland not getting closer to a championship, they are moving further away from one. They are aiming for the same window as Los Angeles (both), Golden State, Utah, Denver, Dallas, Memphis, and Phoenix. And aren’t better than any of them except Dallas I suppose. If and when these teams decline, teams like Houston, SAC, SA and OKC will have waited their turn and assembled picks and assets and presumably will be competitive again. Portland will just cruise along in the middle. Then Lillard will be 35. Even if they somehow land Simmons, that won’t be enough to overtake the first group. They’ll need another really good player. It just feels so average and mediocre and content.
I think the way this trade may logically work is that we trade CJ and Jones to the Knicks for Toppin, Quickley and draft capital. Toppin and Quickley and some of that draft capital for Grant. That would leave Detroit with additional cap space. That would get us Grant, a 20.5M trade exception and the remaining draft capital. We could then work the sign and trade for Derozan (if that's who we really want) for the trade exception and draft capital. I don't think Detroit is taking a trade exception and picks from the Knicks and Dallas for Grant. The Derozan sign and trade would leave us hard capped. If you estimate that Norm costs 22M that would put us at 139M having filled 9 roster spots so we would have around 7M to fill the other 4 spots to get to the minimum of a 13 man roster. Greg Brown would take out just under a million of that. It would leave us 6M to sign a GLeaguer for under a million and then we could get two actual veterans who would cost some place under 2.6M a piece. So I guess it could work but we would be hard capped. The MLE would not be an option. If we didn't go for DeRozan with our TPE but instead took someone who was already under contract that would give a team cap relief and draft capital, then it wouldn't be a sign and trade and I don't think we would be hard capped which would leave us the ability to sign as many vet mins as we want and use the taxpayer MLE... I'm pretty sure.
Post draft, i am further convinced that these three need to be our targets in trades. The draft indicated exactly the direction these teams are moving in away from vets and rebuilding around a younger core. 1. Gordon Hayward -- looks horribly miscast as the overpaid veteran on a team full of 19-25 yr olds + Plumlee. I know MJ and Kupchak are desperate to make the playoffs, but Hayward makes very little sense on that team to me. 2. Siakam -- Drafted a guy who play his position and potentially his role. Lowry on the outs. Yet again, a guy hovering around 30 on a max deal. 3. Grant. Now the challenge for us and the only real avenue to increase our ceiling as a team is to be able to land one of these guys without giving up CJ. And we have to retain Powell to not lose a valuable trade chip for the deadline. Probably a pipedream for to be able to get Siakam without trading CJ, but the other two.... that's the hope. For example, if we replace Roco with Grant, does that make us a better team?
The apron will be around 143M. Getting hard capped is not an option as far as I'm concerned, it will be almost impossible without some super diligent planning with regards to FA contracts and which guys to target for the minimum deals. There is little to no margin for error and while it may be technically possible, expecting Olshey to be able to operate under such strict handicaps is well.....about as good as his drafting ability in the 1st round. Another thing regarding getting hardcapped: little to no flexibility during the season. Something Olshey has always valued highly.
I think in terms of Simmons it depends on what he can become. I think his upside is a player just as good as Dame and his floor is a perennial all star. Then you have to consider what Norm would give us if he was given more shots than he'd been given before. I also think the team would function at a higher level if we got a three and D post instead of Nurk. I think we might be able to get Bobby Portis for the taxpayer MLE if we promised him a starting spot. I think we could get Boucher and Flynn from Toronto for Nurk. Assuming we could get Simmons for CJ and every future draft asset we have (picks and swaps). Dame, Norm, RoCo, Simmons, Portis, Boucher, Ant, Nas, DJJ and Flynn is going to be a damn good defensive team for a long time and who could stop this team from scoring? So much shooting, so much athleticism and skill. I think that's a team just as good as those other teams you listed that we'd be competing with. However, if Neil wasn't willing to sell out every draft asset we have and CJ for Simmons... and do it quickly or make some Siakam trade; I don't think Norm will re-sign to play SF with the idea in his head of how many touches and shots he can get while playing with Dame and CJ. So I think if CJ isn't moved really soon that Norm will walk for nothing, if he can get equal money elsewhere. Then trying to get up to the level of those other teams does become impossible and Dame will ask out. Then Olshey will get fired and they will bring a new GM in within a month and that GM would spend all of September tearing this team down into young players and future picks. You still might have to deal with hoping for the potential of Simmons if the rebuild happens.
I don't think Hayward is really on the market, at least not for a rebuilding package. Like you said, that team is stupidly chasing the playoffs and they went all out last year to even sign Hayward. They stretched Batum for him, and to just get a few firsts for him in a year....I don't really understand it. Plus he has a 15% trade kicker that goes on the books of the team acquiring him. Not that it would hamper a deal, but it's a consideration.
I don't think you can keep Powell without trading CJ. You can enter the season with one or the other, but not both.
The scary part about that is that we don't have until the beginning of the season. If the Knicks want Powell which they reportedly do, how are we going to win Powell over them? They can offer to play him at SG, they can offer him more touches and shots and they can most definitely offer him just as much money as we can because they have the ability to offer two max contracts this off season. Not two super max contracts but two max deals. I don't think they would use max money on Norm but they might be willing to get in a bidding war with us and go as high as 25M... to me that would mean us having to outbid them at 26M which is a huge overpay. It would also take us into the season with three guys 6'4" and under making right near 100M.
Given Neil's conservative nature, I don't think he will even really consider realistic CJ trade scenarios until Powell has either committed or signed on the dotted line.
