If CJ were to be traded, who are we most likely to get?

CJ +

2022 1st
2023 swap
2024 1st
2025 swap (lottery protected)

If the Blazers have Dame, Simmons, Powell, and Nurkic over the next 3 seasons, those picks will be pretty low in the order

 

Worst case, if we blow our future to try to make Dame happy, we could just move the team to Seattle and start over with an expansion

 

When you start trading multiple firsts, the protections start to get difficult. In most scenarios you will end up doing no protections on the picks themselves.

ie. If I trade you a 2022 top 4 protected pick, what happens if I get a top 4 pick? Well, it just moves to the next tradable pick right? If I traded you my 2023 pick as a swap though, it can't be that. If I traded you my 2024 pick, well woops, I owe you that pick already. So what happens to it? Usually it turns into two seconds or something like that. Well then the value of that pick is not as high because I could always tank next year and keep my pick and just send you two later seconds.

Protecting the swaps is probably okay. In this scenario, if you wanted to trade 4 picks with protections, it would probably go something like this:

2022 1st Unprotected
2023 Swap (You can protect this however you want, since 2022 is unprotected)
2024 1st Unprotected
2025 Swap (You can protect this however you want, since 2024 is unprotected)

Like I said, it's tricky. If you protect 2024, you have to get Philly to agree to move that pick to 2026 if they don't get it. That may be a harder sell.

 

Yeah, cause Neil doesn't want to do anything besides a CJ 1:1 swap.

Philly offered Simmons to the Spurs for 4 picks + 3 swaps and a player worse than CJ. So I think CJ + 2 picks 2 swaps is more than enough for them to accept.

 

Value-wise, certainly! I was trying to make more of the point that if there is a chance Morey can get Dame, he won't want to potentially assuage the tense star situation in Portland (though frankly, I have no idea if such a move would do it for Dame).

 

It's not that tricky, they fact is both Dame and Simmons are under contract through 2024... if Dame picked up his option it would be 2025. The gamble is will Ben Simmons get better or at least play at the best level he has so far. If he plays at least at his past best then we'll be able to put players around Dame and Simmons that make us relevant.

 

Well then Morey is stupid. At the end of the day, if Dame goes on the market, Philly is not the only (or even the most likely) suitor.

And I don't think Morey is stupid.

 

I'm talking about how to protect the picks.

 

If CJ is the best fit and we add the picks they want, they aren't going to be bitter when we tell them that their offer for Dame isn't even the one we'd take if Dame were traded which he won't be. The snake oil salesman better sell.

 

it's a double edged sword, really. if dame wants out, i really want to blow it all up and have no interest in taking back Simmons, even if they throw in Maxey/Thybulle.

It's why I kinda want to move past Philly in these potential CJ trades. Don't think they're a good trade partner.

 

I want to say that maybe there are trades on hold for CJ that make perfect sense but Olshey is waiting on a possibly indecisive Norm. Maybe Neil's plan is that if Norm signs elsewhere he blows up the team but if Norm signs here, he'll make a trade sending CJ and assets out and getting back an impact forward.

 

More likely he's just waiting on Dame to return from the Olympics, then sell him on the team he signed being good enough to compete in the west.

"Look Dame, we got Cody Zeller and Abdel Nader. Check out Zeller's percentiles defending the pick and roll and Nader's percentile on catch and shoots!"

"What you're not impressed? Well hmm, okay....."

 

If that team doesn't have Norm on it... I don't think Olshey makes that sale.

 

In all seriousness I think Dame and Neil will reconvene after the Olympics. At that point they can discuss about the roster signings and whether those signings are enough. If not, hopefully Dame pushes Neil to do something drastic. I'll bet Neil will try his hardest to convince Dame that he doesn't need to.

 

Good old "Kick the Can" Olshey.