Rumor What's going on in Portland?

now that ive watched this @Phatguysrule you might want to watch it too.

 

https://www.oregonlive.com/realesta...yers-as-new-listings-drop.html?outputType=amp

Leas aNd less houses for sale..

 

I watched it. Violent crime and murder rates increase with increased poverty and desperation...

 

Which means prices just go up and up...

 

did you catch the part that most guns used were stolen guns from families thst didn't have the guns locked up?

 

oh i know. Thats why i posted it.

i think there is an inevitable bubble that will burst but i could very well be wrong if the inventory never stacks up again.
So hard to tell with the inflation aNd current instability of the economy.
If prices of goods drop i believe the house building will pick back up, creating inventory to then lower prices.
My bigger concern currently are those paying over market value currently aNd walking into an upside down situation. If the market levels off, they will remain upside down. They are banking on continued increases to offset their overpay.
Thats really dangerous to me.

 

I caught that they said that. But every gun theft I've personally heard of, family members took the guns out of the gun safe, or somebody broke in and took the whole gun safe.

I'd love to see if they are actually pulling that data from somewhere or just making a guess.

Or are people just selling their guns on the black market since we just passed a new law which makes private party transfers illegal.

Now it's a huge hassle to sell a gun to a private party or you have to go to a gun shop and get far less money for your gun.

It's far more profitable to sell on the black market, then you can just report it as stolen and your hands are clean.

 

Supply prices have already dropped. There is just far more demand than there is supply. There isn't enough space left to build as fast as new people are coming in.

Prices here will keep rising until the prices catch up to California and Seattle. There will be dips every now and then, but barring a natural disaster the price will always recover until we suffer a long term environmental disaster.

Or if we drastically expand or get rid of the Urban Grown Boundary (which is not likely either).

https://azbigmedia.com/real-estate/...-falling-but-when-will-consumers-see-savings/

 

supply prices are nowhere near what they were two years ago. That goes for steel, wood and acrylic. When i say drop i mean back to prepandemic costs.
The 68% drop recently seen, noted in that article is but a portion of the 280% min increase the market saw on lumber.
And lumber is not the only cost of building a home.

https://fortune.com/2021/05/05/lumb...a-wood-shortage-why-so-expensive-to-buy-wood/

 

That will take years, if they ever do. Prices were artificially low due to an unbalanced (cheap) supply chain.

Shipping costs will inevitably rise, and shortages will persist unless everybody keeps more local stock. Holding stock costs money.

These problems don't get fixed quickly enough to cause a crash.

 

why do you say prices were low due to an unbalanced supply chain?
Free trade helps keep costs down as well as provides economic stability in countries that have little other resources to develop any type of wealth.
This is the misconception(in my opinion) of the wto.
There are certainly issues and regulations needed to ensure free trade doesn't enable what we see in China, but thats what trade sanctions are for.

But the end result, by and large is that free trade stops wars.
It stops wars. We figure out all the other shit, but we have to stop the fighting first, and to avoid the impoverished’s need to use force to take what they need to survive.
If we stop free trade, not only will our costs of goods continue to increase, but the countries who have found economical stability from it, will be pushed back into a corner and feel they will have to take by force, what they feel they need.
So to me the wto shouldn't be the focus of protests. The countries abusing free trade through civil rights violations within their country should be.
The concept of the wto or world trade is a good thing.

i will admit it is a very grey and tough spot.
Civil rights violations vs wars.
The world isnt perfect, but i think stopping wars is more important than tackling civil rights violations.
in todays world, The next world war is likely the last war.
of course all my opinions, but i think history has shown this.

 

I'm not proposing isolationism. I'm simply saying prices were artificially low.
Shipping costs will rise a ton or local stock will be required, or we will not have enough supply to meet demand.

That will all hold prices higher than they used to be.

That's why we've had so many shipping companies bought up by competitors. The margins are just too low. That's why people are still quitting jobs in droves, even though there is no more enhanced unemployment.

 

My house is 20% higher than November 2020. Loving it. Just imagine what my house would cost if Portland was a shitty city.

 

Yeah, we bought 2 years ago. Just a few months ago, the house 2 doors down, which is half the size of ours, sold for 50K more than we bought. Happy we bought when we did!

 

Inflation is awesome!

 

Not as awesome as hyper!