It really seems like people on this board actually undervalue CJ, at least the loud minority do. Yes, he's overpaid. Yes, he has maddening deficiencies (hence "MeJ"). But he's still a pretty solid NBA player, even if he might be hard to find a good fit for. Anyway, I thought I'd take a look at a couple of fairly well-respected measures of NBA worth to see where he falls. Here's "Estimated Plus-Minus" (which came out first in the stat that GM's like): Above Dejounte Murray (and Nurk!), and not far below Beal and SGA. How about RAPTOR WAR: Above young hotshots like Darius Garland and Cole Anthony, and just one step below Harden, and only a smidge below Beal and Donovan Mitchell. Anybody want to over a counter narrative? Or perhaps point out that this is damning with faint praise?
I can practically hear the furious clicking of @wizenheimer ‘s keyboard as he assembles his spreadsheets to refute your heresy.
Obviously both those stats have many scrubs rated higher than CJ. This is a problem! But the fact that CJ, whom most of this board seems to see as a net negative, that we would literally be better if he was out for the season, registers not-too-terribly, is I think worth noting. Especially as he's playing (certainly shooting) significantly worse than last season (WILSON!!!).
He’s underrated at least on a mediocre team. But for certain player types like CJ, their value does not scale to great teams. Replace Jrue Holiday with CJ and that’s a huge downgrade for the Bucks. But on a crappy team that can’t score it might be closer to a wash.
no spreadsheet needed in the last 3 seasons, CJ has missed 38 games. Portland's record in those games, was 24-14. That's a fairly decent sample size made more dramatic by the fact that Nurkic also missed 28 of those 38 games. That's about a 52 win pace, without CJ. With Nurkic it would have likely been quite a bit higher
Doesn't it depend who those teams were? For example, the Blazers handily beat the Pistons last game without Dame, but I don't think that fact should be used against Dame.
38 games seems a pretty decent sample size...no? this is your thread....your stat showed CJ the equal of James Harden and almost as good as Beal and Mitchell. Do you think that's his value? EPM shows he's better than Nurkic...I'm assuming in this case better = more valuable. Do you think CJ is more valuable to Portland than Nurkic?
I'm not a stat head, so you tell me - is the drop in TS% from 58% to 53% significant? The eye-ball test suggests he is become less efficient/more selfish. Since being a reasonably efficient scorer represents most of his value that's an obvious problem. Let's assume Olshit is fired and his replacement puts out the word he is accepting offers. What would you honestly expect? My honest prediction is that the best we could hope for was an equally bad contract that was a little shorter. CJ is a high quality role-player who is paid like an all-star.
58% > 53% is a fairly significant drop in TS%. CJ's career mark is is 55% so last season's 58% is wider variance than this season's 53% Looks like a lot of the smaller guards in the league have taken a big efficiency hit this year. I'd estimate that the new foul rules make it much easier to re-direct the smaller players and bump them into lower efficiency. I'd also wonder if the smaller hands of smaller player are having grip problems with the new basketball...just a theory from my colon my guess is that CJ's trade value isn't nearly as high as many Blazer fans have assumed. But I doubt if it's ever been tested because I don't think Olshey has ever offered CJ
Who are these CJ-overvaluing fans? It's been my experience that fans of other teams seem to like CJ better than we do.
Let's pick on Bradley Beal. Why is he seen as such a big deal? He's never been a good defender and he's notoriously not much of a three-point shooter. But he's perpetually mentioned as the other guy Morey is drooling over besides Dame. If he's All That, surely CJ is close to being so. (Plus he's a fuckin anti-vaxxer.)
Seeing a guy play once or twice a season vs seeing him 82 times a season. Which one is likely to produce a more accurate evaluation?
I know. It's just everybody here seems to think everybody else really loves CJ when I don't think anybody here counts as a real CJ fan. Poor CJ - I hope he doesn't ever come across this hellsite.
Hey, I've said repeatedly that Morey doesn't want the "best" deal, he wants the deal he can give the best PR spin. I have no problem seeing him prefer Wall or Westbrick to a better player with fewer Sports Center appearances.
Beal is severely overrated. I was very unimpressed when I watched him on the Olympic team (before they left for Japan.) Also, it's funny because he was drafted as a shooter.
he's another one of the 'smaller' players that seems to have been hammered by the new foul rules and new basketball: he is at a career high in assists, but also a career high in turnovers Wizards are doing well this season. Sure helps they are getting 41 points, 21 rebounds and 7 assists from the three guys traded for Westbrook
