What is the ideal off-season?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by B-Roy, Feb 13, 2022.

  1. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2008
    Messages:
    18,358
    Likes Received:
    12,482
    Trophy Points:
    113
    As @wizenheimer said, this really makes no sense. They're allowed to essentially use their TPEs as contracts and operate over the cap regardless of Ingles' cap hold.
     
    Scalma likes this.
  2. LayneStaley

    LayneStaley Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2018
    Messages:
    6,040
    Likes Received:
    6,490
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Badass
    Location:
    Kirkland, WA
    If we turned down Maxey/Simmons/Thybulle for Dame it was a mistake imo. I love Dame but all 3 fit the timeline better and Maxey is turning into a stud.
     
    SlyPokerCat likes this.
  3. SlyPokerCat

    SlyPokerCat cats rool dogs drool

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2017
    Messages:
    4,646
    Likes Received:
    6,217
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I suggested Simmons, Maxey and picks long ago and people shit on it.
     
    LayneStaley likes this.
  4. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2014
    Messages:
    15,624
    Likes Received:
    16,768
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I didn't want to start another thread with what my ideal off season will look like if the Pelicans make the playoffs which I still think isn't the most likely scenario but it's getting closer to a coin flip and has momentum heading towards happening. So if they make the playoffs and whoever is our GM is dedicated to trying the Dame/Ant back court, this is what I would do.

    First I would trade one of our two second round picks or send cash to the bulls to take the conditions off of the pick we owe them for next season.

    I would then trade Detroit our 2025 FRP and the Milwaukee 2025 FRP for Grant.

    Then I'd trade whatever pick we end up with in this draft, our 2027 and 2029 FRPs if necessary, Bledsoe and Winslow for Jaylen Brown.

    Re-sign Ant and Nurk. Opt in on Hart. Sign a backup C with the TPMLE. Off season over.

    Rotation: Dame, Ant, Jaylen, Jerami, Nurk, Hart, Nas, TPMLEC and whoever pops more between Greg and Trendon.
     
  5. Cugel

    Cugel The epitome of mediocrity

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2019
    Messages:
    6,768
    Likes Received:
    6,295
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Canvas Repairman
    Celtics are killing it and Brown is young. Why would they trade him?
     
  6. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2014
    Messages:
    23,631
    Likes Received:
    34,981
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The bloggers when Ingles runs out of the tunnel with his blazers teammates next season.

    CD64F4DE-496A-4F3A-989E-A2E5A9B3D610.jpeg
     
    Tweak and RR7 like this.
  7. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2014
    Messages:
    15,624
    Likes Received:
    16,768
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Are they killing it though? If they have an underwhelming playoff performance, I could see them being ready to split up those two and try and get the best value for Brown. I think a mid lotto pick in the current draft and two future FRPs would be a great haul for him.
     
  8. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2008
    Messages:
    19,768
    Likes Received:
    16,814
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    PDX
    Trade a pick for a starter, Draft an exciting lotto talent.
     
  9. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2014
    Messages:
    15,624
    Likes Received:
    16,768
    Trophy Points:
    113
    My ideal off season that is within grasp at this point is winning the first pick in the lottery and having the Pelicans pick convey at number 9.

    I would then like to see us set up some sketchy shit with the Celtics after they make a first round exit, where we allow them to work something out with Ant for a sign and trade that would send the a S&T Ant along with the rights to the 9th pick that we'd pick for them for Jaylen Brown.

    Draft Jabari Smith with the first pick.

    Draft a backup big with our second rounder.

    I would also like to see us trade the Memphis second rounder to the Bulls so they will allow us to take the conditions off of the pick we owe them for next year. Then I'd like to see us use future picks and the TPE to pick up another impact player.

    Re-sign Nurk to a contract that gives him a raise but not more than a few million in the first year of the new deal.

    See Williams and Keon battle it out for the backup PG spot.

    Dame, Hart, Brown, Smith, Nurk, TPE, Nas, Keon, second round big and hopefully someone else pops out of all of our young players.
     
  10. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    7,773
    Likes Received:
    11,502
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Saying this for years
    I think Dunn is more likely to be on this team next year than Brandon Williams.

    It's been fun watching Williams play. He's so quick and can invent shots attack the basket. However, there are a couple of issues.

    1. He's an even smaller Dame/Ant and he'll never be the scorer either of them is.
    2. You have to cover for him on defense as much as anyone we have.
    3. Turnovers. He averages nearly as many as he has assists. An NBA PG can't do that.

    Dunn fills a niche that I thought might have secured DSJ a spot next year and he actually might fill that niche better: Big guard who can defend and facilitate and looks more comfortable remembering he's one of the five guys on offense he has to keep involved so defenses are honest. There's a reason at the end of games he's been playing PG and Williams has been off the ball.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2022
    TBpup likes this.
  11. AmirIcon

    AmirIcon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    7,116
    Likes Received:
    6,076
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Writer, Director, Actor
    If Portland can end up with either Jabari or Paolo out of this draft, that is a win. Then they can move the latter of lotto picks and TPE for Grant which is likely. Chauncey can decide which of Grant or the lotto pick deserves to start.
     
  12. CJ_is_Gone

    CJ_is_Gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2022
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    2,235
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ideal off-season:

    Assume picks #7 & #10

    Draft:
    #7 Tari Eason
    #10 -> Trade down for #17 (#10 & Bledsoe for #17 & Christian Wood)
    #17 Mark Williams

    FA:
    Nurk: $60M/4yr ($15M ea)
    Ant: $70M/4yr ($17.5M ea)
    Dunn: $2M Min Contract
    Otto Porter Jr - Full MLE -> $30M/3yrs ($10M ea -> 2 guaranteed + 1 PO)

    Playing Rotation (8 deep):
    PG: Dame, (Ant)
    SG: Hart, Ant
    SF: Porter, Little, Winslow
    PF: Wood, (Porter)
    C: Nurk, (Wood)

    Bench:
    Eason, Mark Williams, Dunn, Johnson, Brown, Watford, Didi
     
    TBpup likes this.
  13. DDolla

    DDolla Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2018
    Messages:
    8,478
    Likes Received:
    7,813
    Trophy Points:
    113
    OT: Chiefs traded Hill for 5 draft picks. Would you trade Dame for that?
     
  14. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2008
    Messages:
    23,699
    Likes Received:
    36,252
    Trophy Points:
    113
    context:

    upload_2022-3-23_10-35-21.png

    so, what is the NBA equivalent?

    looks like trading Dame for the 26th pick this year and 4 second round picks, one in the 30's

    no, wouldn't even consider an idiotic trade like that
     
    Hoopguru and PCmor7 like this.
  15. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2014
    Messages:
    15,624
    Likes Received:
    16,768
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There is no equivalent to this trade in the NBA. This is a crazy haul for a wide receiver... hell it's a crazy haul for any player. One player in the NFL can never be equated to the NBA and because teams regularly expect to land immediate starters in the second round and even the third and fourth depending on the position, draft picks can't be compared either. I feel like this is like getting a 5th pick, 14th pick and 25th pick in this draft, then a top 20 protected pick in next season's draft that rolled over to the next draft for six years before turning into a second rounder and the teams second rounder next season.

    The only difference is that the trade I just proposed for us isn't like what the Chiefs got because it's far more likely that the 29th and 50th pick start for the Chiefs next season than the 5th and 14th would for us next season. Just completely different animals but in terms of draft capital, this is a lot of value in return for any player in the NFL because the Chiefs cut a huge amount from their cap in a hard cap league and get so many picks in a league that picks are far more valued than they are in the association.
     
  16. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2008
    Messages:
    23,699
    Likes Received:
    36,252
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm glad you mentioned the NFL hard-cap because tht is by far the biggest structural difference between the NFL and NBA. That hard cap forces NFL teams into moves NBA teams don't have to consider

    as for you analogy of draft equivalence, I don't agree that a 29th NFL pick = a 5th NBA pick; a 50th pick = a 14th pick; or a 116th pick = a 25th pick. If my analogy went two far in one direction, yours went twice as far in the other. Your analogy might be valid if there were 90 NFL teams; three times as many as in the NBA. But there are only 32 teams in the NFL vs 30 in the NBA. meaning that NFL teams can loop back into the various tiers of draft talent a lot easier than NBA teams can. They simply have more opportunity
     
    blazerkor likes this.
  17. Mr. Robot

    Mr. Robot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2017
    Messages:
    4,482
    Likes Received:
    4,114
    Trophy Points:
    113
    they werent willing to deal either maxey or thybulle

    and im sure daryl morey would rather have harden than dame and they got him without giving either of them
     
  18. CJ_is_Gone

    CJ_is_Gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2022
    Messages:
    2,155
    Likes Received:
    2,235
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Not sure I agree with you here. As a percentage of league rosters - the drafts provide about the same number of roster turnover.

    NBA
    15 roster spots x 30 teams = 450 players
    Draft = 60 picks / 450 players = 13.3% potential player turnover

    NFL
    53 roster spots x 32 teams = 1,696 players
    Draft = 224 picks (7 rounds x 32 teams) / 1,696 = 13.2% potential player turnover

    Theoretically, you should be able to do a straight ratio between the two leagues.

    29/224 = 0.129 * 60 => 8th Pick in NBA draft
    50/224 = 0.223 * 60 => 13th Pick in NBA draft
    4th rounder (96-128th pick) => 26th pick to 34th pick in NBA draft
    4th rounder (96-128th pick) => 26th pick to 34th pick in NBA draft
    6th rounder (160-192nd pick) => 43rd pick to 51st pick in NBA draft

    So it turns out to be 2 late loto picks, 2 late 1st/early 2nds, and a late second rounder.

    The likelihood that you'd find a star WR is about the same chance as you'd have finding a star PG.
    The likelihood that you'd find a star OL is about the same chance you'd have finding a star C.

    I think this approach is very comparable.
     
  19. SlyPokerCat

    SlyPokerCat cats rool dogs drool

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2017
    Messages:
    4,646
    Likes Received:
    6,217
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Which just goes to show how overvalued Dame is by our fan base at this point in his career.

    I love the guy as a fan. But Simmons, Maxey, and multiple 1sts for Dame would be a good restart deal.
     
  20. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2008
    Messages:
    23,699
    Likes Received:
    36,252
    Trophy Points:
    113

    good job on the math

    I don't really agree with the conclusions you drew though
     

Share This Page