Long game

So I started really thinking about this, and I’m now hoping we lose the Pels pick this year and get the Bucks pick in 2025.

In my heart of hearts, and yours too if you are honest with yourselves, I know we are not going to win a title in Dame’s prime. So getting the 14th pick this year and trading it for a vet that can “help” Dame make a title run is foolish because AS Cronin himself said, this isn’t a quick 1 year fix

So let’s trade Dame for players that match Ant, Hart, the 6th pick and whatever YOUNG stud in free agency we can get or trade for


I’ll sit here and take my lumps quietly

hart is closer in age to Dame than Ant.

fwiw.

we have the template for an older star (age 36), a middle age star (age 25), and a young star (age 23) right in front of us. They were in the finals last year and are favorites to get there again this year. To not even attempt at maximizing a roster build around the best player in franchise history is something I can't wrap up my head around.

Mediocre Man said:

So I started really thinking about this, and I’m now hoping we lose the Pels pick this year and get the Bucks pick in 2025.

In my heart of hearts, and yours too if you are honest with yourselves, I know we are not going to win a title in Dame’s prime. So getting the 14th pick this year and trading it for a vet that can “help” Dame make a title run is foolish because AS Cronin himself said, this isn’t a quick 1 year fix

So let’s trade Dame for players that match Ant, Hart, the 6th pick and whatever YOUNG stud in free agency we can get or trade for


I’ll sit here and take my lumps quietly

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Can't disagree and I agree we are not going to win a title in Dame's time remaining. My preference remains to trade him for best rebuilding assets we can get. I would prefer we get the Pels pick and still trade Dame.

illmatic99 said:

we have the template for an older star (age 36), a middle age star (age 25), and a young star (age 23) right in front of us. They were in the finals last year and are favorites to get there again this year. To not even attempt at maximizing a roster build around the best player in franchise history is something I can't wrap up my head around.

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That comparison only works on paper, IMO. Chris Paul isn't who Phoenix built around. He was the final piece of the puzzle to elevate everyone else's game. (Ayton was heading toward bust-ville before he arrived, and Booker was known as a gunner with no all-around game.) Lillard is sort of the anti-CP3... Weak defender vs elite defender, average or worse distributor vs one of the best ever, uncomfortable playing off the ball vs someone who willingly did so alongside Harden. I don't see Dame bringing the dog out of guys like Paul. And Dame's biggest strength (shooting) is hardly a weakness for Paul.

Our formula is all wrong for following Phoenix's blueprint.

Mediocre Man said:

So I started really thinking about this, and I’m now hoping we lose the Pels pick this year and get the Bucks pick in 2025.

In my heart of hearts, and yours too if you are honest with yourselves, I know we are not going to win a title in Dame’s prime. So getting the 14th pick this year and trading it for a vet that can “help” Dame make a title run is foolish because AS Cronin himself said, this isn’t a quick 1 year fix

So let’s trade Dame for players that match Ant, Hart, the 6th pick and whatever YOUNG stud in free agency we can get or trade for


I’ll sit here and take my lumps quietly

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In my heart of hearts, when I'm being honest with myself I see it as being unlikely that Cronin can build a contender around Dame if Cronin's moves are going to be as weak as they were at the trade deadline but there's no reason for us to think they have to be. Let's just wait and see what happens tomorrow and then on May 17th because if we get a top two pick and Jabari or Paolo are the difference makers I think they'd be in Chauncey's system, adding one of them, Jerami Grant via 11th pick and TPE, a solid backup big in the second round and one more guy who would compete for regular rotation minutes with the TPMLE would make us a solid team that could contend.

Dame, Ant, Grant, Jabari or Paolo, Nurk, Hart, Nas, second round C, and TPMLE or one of our young guys who pops, is a really solid rotation if Chauncey is able to coach them the way he seemed to be able to coach the team right before we went into full tank. Getting one of the top two picks is like an 18% chance, some in here think Chet could be that difference maker or go before Jabari or Paolo so that would be close to a 27% chance and if Jaden went in the top two or three that would be 37%.

I just think it's pretty crazy to rule out the possibility that we'll be able to build a contender around Dame in the next couple of seasons... it isn't the most likely thing but it isn't something I can come close to knowing.

I've already said if I was a new GM coming into this team not as a fan of the team and Dame, I'd likely shop him pretty hard and see what package of young players and picks I could get for him because it pushes expectations back and we probably just find ourselves a lot younger and still competing for a low seed in the playoffs. As a fan or if I'm part of this front office I want to see if Dame/Ant can be more effective than Dame/CJ, I want to see what we can get in the draft with our pick and I personally want to see how Jerami Grant fits with that pick and the rest of our guys all of this while being coached by Chauncey in a season that has the real Dame and where we're not actively trying to lose.

Mediocre Man said:

So I started really thinking about this, and I’m now hoping we lose the Pels pick this year and get the Bucks pick in 2025.

In my heart of hearts, and yours too if you are honest with yourselves, I know we are not going to win a title in Dame’s prime. So getting the 14th pick this year and trading it for a vet that can “help” Dame make a title run is foolish because AS Cronin himself said, this isn’t a quick 1 year fix

So let’s trade Dame for players that match Ant, Hart, the 6th pick and whatever YOUNG stud in free agency we can get or trade for


I’ll sit here and take my lumps quietly

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Do you think the Buck's pick in 2025 is going to be better than the Pels pick this year?

In the era that teams drafted players who were ready to step in an contribute, a pick 3 years down the road actually meant 3 years. In the current reality, it is more likely to mean the pick doesn't actually pay off for 5-7 years. Nor is there any reason to believe that player will be a superior prospect to whoever is available this year.

It's true that we might have a new, better owner who brings in a a better GM...or we could be "blessed" with the next Sarver or Sterling.

IMHO, it makes more sense to start the rebuild now instead of sticking to the Olshey approach.

I still have this little voice in the back of my head who thinks this is all just a charade and we're actually going to trade Dame this summer.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that we convinced him to be patient. We worked with CJ to get him where he wanted to go.

I don't think it's likely we will be able to put a contender around Dame. So.... I think it's possible we told him to play the good little soldier and we will move him this summer to a place that he wants.

But if Dame is cooked, who is going to give up prime assets for him? You can't have it both ways. Either is still a borderline superstar with some years yet to go or he is over the hill. Take your pick.

If you get a young STAR for Dame then sure. But if you only get good players for Dame then it's not worth it. Portland can get good players, what is harder to get is great players.

The question is how many teams want to trade a cheap young star player for an older star player that will be making 45 million dollars?

Natebishop3 said:

I still have this little voice in the back of my head who thinks this is all just a charade and we're actually going to trade Dame this summer.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that we convinced him to be patient. We worked with CJ to get him where he wanted to go.

I don't think it's likely we will be able to put a contender around Dame. So.... I think it's possible we told him to play the good little soldier and we will move him this summer to a place that he wants.

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That's really possible but Dame isn't exactly playing the good little soldier, he's playing the obsessed captain that's willing to go down with the ship in an Oscar worth performance. Now if someone else is GM or if Cronin gets a new boss as President of Basketball Ops then all bets are off because that person really might want to take what they could get for Dame, our two picks, Ant, Nas, Keon, Greg, Trendon and what could be around 40M in cap space and see what they could do with that and the time that would give them.

Natebishop3 said:

I still have this little voice in the back of my head who thinks this is all just a charade and we're actually going to trade Dame this summer.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that we convinced him to be patient. We worked with CJ to get him where he wanted to go.

I don't think it's likely we will be able to put a contender around Dame. So.... I think it's possible we told him to play the good little soldier and we will move him this summer to a place that he wants.

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It's possible. This franchise owes Dame a lot - but if he actually expects a super-max contract to cover the years of his inevitable decline, that is too much. Unless there is a dramatic change to the curent salary cap system, building a team around a super-max contract is going to be almost impossible. If the player in question is no longer a top 10 player due to age - forget about it.

Honestly, I'm not convinced Dame being traded would be any worse than Roy's injury driven early retirement. Some fans seem to have forgotten how good Roy was and how important he was to the franchise!

Cugel said:

But if Dame is cooked, who is going to give up prime assets for him? You can't have it both ways. Either is still a borderline superstar with some years yet to go or he is over the hill. Take your pick.

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Maybe I missed it. Who thinks he's cooked? I think he can still be a very good player if he's healthy.

Natebishop3 said:

Maybe I missed it. Who thinks he's cooked? I think he can still be a very good player if he's healthy.

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Think people are forgetting he had his best season like a yr ago and is finally healthy with a yr off. He's gonna be ballin next yr.

handiman said:

That comparison only works on paper, IMO. Chris Paul isn't who Phoenix built around. He was the final piece of the puzzle to elevate everyone else's game. (Ayton was heading toward bust-ville before he arrived, and Booker was known as a gunner with no all-around game.) Lillard is sort of the anti-CP3... Weak defender vs elite defender, average or worse distributor vs one of the best ever, uncomfortable playing off the ball vs someone who willingly did so alongside Harden. I don't see Dame bringing the dog out of guys like Paul. And Dame's biggest strength (shooting) is hardly a weakness for Paul.

Our formula is all wrong for following Phoenix's blueprint.

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The order of operations and the machinations Phoenix went thru is irrelevant to my point of three guys who are generations apart (effectively in the NBA) surrounded by elite role players and defenders being the best team in the league. Whether Dame is CP or if Ant is Booker or our next rookie star becomes Ayton is also not the point. It's that we can build a foundation around Dame still and don't need to trade him just to match the ages of our younger guys, which i think is what @Mediocre Man was saying in his OP.

illmatic99 said:

Think people are forgetting he had his best season like a yr ago and is finally healthy with a yr off. He's gonna be ballin next yr.

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Yeah, I have no doubt that Dame is going to come back and still be a superstar player. The questions are:

1. For how long will he be a superstar?

2. Can we realistically build a contender around him while he's still a superstar?

I think he can still be a top 10-15 player for eat least another 4-5 years if he's healthy. So the question then becomes, can we build a contender around him in the next 2-3 years?

Cugel said:

But if Dame is cooked, who is going to give up prime assets for him? You can't have it both ways. Either is still a borderline superstar with some years yet to go or he is over the hill. Take your pick.

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Let me suggest a different question. How many years does he have left as a borderline superstar vs how many years will the team have to keep paying him a superstar salary?

Natebishop3 said:

Yeah, I have no doubt that Dame is going to come back and still be a superstar player. The questions are:

1. For how long will he be a superstar?

2. Can we realistically build a contender around him while he's still a superstar?

I think he can still be a top 10-15 player for eat least another 4-5 years if he's healthy. So the question then becomes, can we build a contender around him in the next 2-3 years?

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I think your timeline may be too optimistic ( I see Dame having 2 or 3 truly elite seasons left), but that's a minor point. The questions you raise are (IMHO) right on.

oldmangrouch said:

Let me suggest a different question. How many years does he have left as a borderline superstar vs how many years will the team have to keep paying him a superstar salary?

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Dame even on his supermax will not be as big an obstacle to team building once the new TV deal kicks in. Even if Dame is borderline all-nba caliber, him taking up 33% of the cap 4 yrs from now is really not much of an issue.

Natebishop3 said:

Yeah, I have no doubt that Dame is going to come back and still be a superstar player. The questions are:

1. For how long will he be a superstar?

2. Can we realistically build a contender around him while he's still a superstar?

I think he can still be a top 10-15 player for eat least another 4-5 years if he's healthy. So the question then becomes, can we build a contender around him in the next 2-3 years?

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4-to 5 years is a perfect time period to build around. Any amount after that is too hard to count on. Injuries and free agency can change things in a hurry.
I would say Dame has another 3 very good years left in him, and 4-5 years of great leadership skills. I would not underestimate that part of his game.

LOL...yet another thread where people say Dame is fading so Portland should hurry up and trade him for a great package of assets....as if they would be the only team clued into the reality of a fading Dame

on one hand people are saying that "well, yeah, Dame is a dollar, but all Portland can surround him with are dimes, nickels, and pennies....so then let's trade him for some dimes, nickels, and pennies"

illmatic99 said:

Dame even on his supermax will not be as big an obstacle to team building once the new TV deal kicks in. Even if Dame is borderline all-nba caliber, him taking up 33% of the cap 4 yrs from now is really not much of an issue.

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We'll have to agree to disagree on that. With LeBron past his peak, there isn't a single player in the league I would invest 33% of the payroll on. It is still a team sport and even the best players can't win without a strong supporting cast. Even Jordan couldn't win a title until they put a good team around him.

Dame isn't going anywhere and we will have players that play Defense going forward. A new Era has started.

wizenheimer said:

LOL...yet another thread where people say Dame is fading so Portland should hurry up and trade him for a great package of assets....as if they would be the only team clued into the reality of a fading Dame

on one hand people are saying that "well, yeah, Dame is a dollar, but all Portland can surround him with are dimes, nickels, and pennies....so then let's trade him for some dimes, nickels, and pennies"

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To stick with your analogy. For the rest of his career, Dame will be getting paid a dollar (or more) while his value drops to .50 cents, then a quarter, then a dime.....

oldmangrouch said:

To stick with your analogy. For the rest of his career, Dame will be getting paid a dollar (or more) while his value drops to .50 cents, then a quarter, then a dime.....

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Chris Paul is more than 5 years older than Dame. Has his value dropped 50%? Curry is 3 years older. Kyle Lowry is almost 5 years older. Lebron is 6 years older. Not a single one of those guys have dropped to a quarter yet, let alone a dime

my analogy was pretty smart...you dumbed it down

oldmangrouch said:

Let me suggest a different question. How many years does he have left as a borderline superstar vs how many years will the team have to keep paying him a superstar salary?

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valid question, probably longer than average a bit?? he is always in shape fwiw

wizenheimer said:

Chris Paul is more than 5 years older than Dame. Has his value dropped 50%? Curry is 3 years older. Kyle Lowry is almost 5 years older. Lebron is 6 years older. Not a single one of those guys have dropped to a quarter yet, let alone a dime

my analogy was pretty smart...you dumbed it down

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To be fair, Dame has never quite been at CP3, Curry, or LeBron's level. Lowry might be a better comparison, although Lowry was never at Dame's level. And Lowry has declined a decent amount. At his peak, he was ~22/7/5 on 41% shooting from '3'. Now, he has dropped to 13.4/7.5/4.5 on .377 shooting from '3'. Still very solid, but not worth near what Dame will be getting paid at that age if he is still here.

Here's how I can see the next five years going. Two. Two paths.
Path One: Give back the keys to a finally healthy and motivated All Time NBA player and work around/with him with the option of vets and young guys.
Path Two: Trade said player for younger assets, and build through the draft giving "those keys" to a series of 20 year olds for the next five years.
I know what path I would choose.

TBpup said:

To be fair, Dame has never quite been at CP3, Curry, or LeBron's level. Lowry might be a better comparison, although Lowry was never at Dame's level. And Lowry has declined a decent amount. At his peak, he was ~22/7/5 on 41% shooting from '3'. Now, he has dropped to 13.4/7.5/4.5 on .377 shooting from '3'. Still very solid, but not worth near what Dame will be getting paid at that age if he is still here.

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It wasn't about whatever talent level these guys were at in their prime. It was about how rapidly and significantly they have declined...which isn't much

I'm seeing a bunch of people here say Dame has only a couple of seasons left at the level he's at. I'm saying they don't have any fucking reason for saying that other than their bias for wanting dame traded.

Natebishop3 said:

Do you think the Buck's pick in 2025 is going to be better than the Pels pick this year?

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No, but the asset we get for it might fit better with a contending team?