Drazan recieved the least amount of votes of any Republican nominee for governor in Oregon for the past 80 years. Betsy Johnson running as an independent will draw many votes from Republicans hoping to finally get a voice in the governor seat as well as votes from more moderate Democrats who feel Kotek is too far left. It could be a close race between Kotek and Johnson.
I wouldn't be so quick to say that. She will get a solid 40% of the state vote. Betsy will get more dem votes than rep votes. If any more than 1 in 5 dem voters votes for Betsy, Drazan wins.
That's possible. Betsy may get more Republican votes than you think. She is an ex Democrat, but while in office she voted mostly with the Republicans.
I think this is going to be a neck and neck three way race. And Drazan may just slide in because Kotex is waaaayyyy too liberal for many Oregonians (and is too closely tied....unfair or not....to an unpopular Kate Brown), and Johnson's pro gun leanings became an even bigger liability this past week or two. I personally can't bring myself to vote for either one and will likely not cast a vote for any gubernatorial candidate. But I won't be shocked if Drazan wins pretty much by default, as the other two candidates are more polarizing than her. But then, Trump could give her the kiss of death and endorse her. Whatever happens, this could be the most interesting governors race in my lifetime.......
I hope Drazan doesn't win. She will put forth a don't say gay law here. Though it will get struck down. She espouses some pretty far right stuff.
Kotek beat out the more moderate Tobias Read in the primaries by a lot of votes. She might do better you expect. But, you could be right.
At some point, Betsy's going to put out ads going after one or the other. I have a feeling Kotek will be her primary target.
Anything's possible, and I certainly don't claim to know what the voters will do - but I'd be surprised if Johnson and Kotek split the D vote such that Drazen wins. I think the most likely outcome is that Johnson fails to gain altitude and becomes a non-factor. The second most likely outcome is that Johnson draws at least the same percentage of R voters as she does D, and so Kotek wins. The third most likely outcome is that Drazen fails to gain altitude and Johnson becomes the de facto choice of R voters. In that instance, she might be able to draw enough D votes to make it close or even win. barfo
Kate Brown is at the bottom of this list: https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/
Going to be interesting to what kind of summer (protest & such) we will have leading into the election.
What's more interesting is that Desantis isn't more well loved. Spells trouble for his presidential run.
Just counting from this list, there appears to be 28-Republican Governors and 22-Democrats. Based on straight mathematic ratios, one would expect to see ~8.4 Republicans and ~6.6 Democrates in the Top 15 tier (assuming an equal distribution). However, there were ONLY 2 Governors who were Democrats in the Top 15 (much lower than statistics would suggest). These Governors enjoy 58% support. Assuming the 'poor' Governors have lower than 50% support, there are 8 in this Tier. 6 of the Bottom 8 Governors are Democrats (much higher than statistics would suggest). Coincidence?
Pretty sure the GOP have shown how cultish they can be with how many Republicans would suck Trumps dick if given the opportunity.
