With the #7 pick, the Portland Trail Blazers select....

My prediction is the Blazers make a trade for someone barely are never mentioned to this point in the media. I am not going to defend the deadline deals but I think there is a chance Cronin could turn something from one of those deals into gold. This is the reason I have waited to totally destroy him for the deadline wanted to see what happened in the summer. HOWEVER if the next season comes and those assets from those 2 trades turn into not much then I will gladly join the what the hell were you doing Cronin train

 

I still see people dismissing the value of proposed moves because that single transaction won't "put Portland over the top"...won't "make them a contender". I think that's a poor gauge because no single move: trade, draft pick, or signing, will make the Blazers contenders. It will have to be a process; a series of moves, and the 7th pick is just the beginning of that process. Portland had their opportunities to land Giannis, PG13, and Butler. No player like that is available now

so then, if the irrelevant gauge of 'becoming an immediate contender' is removed from judging the use of the 7th pick, what is the best use? I have a hard time believing the Blazers are going thru all these workouts just as an exercise of deflection; or as leverage plays in trade negotiations. They may end up trading the 7th pick but I do think they are actually considering using it on a player. Due diligence. And it may be that the trade demands they've received so far make Portland inclined to use the 7th pick rather than trade it

I do know I have a line of 'acceptable' I use in defining trade value of the 7th pick. For me, right now, John Collins is about the only player who has been rumored to be a target that is in the acceptable group. Anunoby is borderline. Grant, Randle, & Ayton are unacceptable; Grant because of his talent; Randle because of his warts; Ayton because he'd cost a lot more than the 7th and the C position is the least important one on the floor

and so far, that seems to be the list of names we've heard...Collins, OG, Grant, Ayton, Randle. Any I have missed?

I also find myself completely unimpressed with the ideas of trading back in the draft. Especially since they almost always are ways to simply give a later pick for Grant...to justify the that trade. "Trading the 7th for Grant is unacceptable, trading the 13th is". That is still essentially trading 7 for Grant. I'm not fooled by the subterfuge.

 

Well written. Reasonable.

 

Anunoby > Collins > Ayton > Grant > Randle

Wiz, your argument is strong. I’d take the two-way, more switchable OG > Collins.

The cost of Ayton is because of BPA — I know the draft is BPA and trades are more about needs, etc, but it’s doable. Swing away. Grant, two-way. Randle still makes the list. With Beal (and Ayton for that matter), it would be because they chose Portland as a FA, so there would be some leverage to decrease the cost a bit with WSH and PHX.

 

Nobody thought Giannis would be as good as he is. Likely good, yes. Game-changing. No.
Nobody thought Butler would be the player he has become either (drafted 30th).
PG13 has turned out better than many thought (drafted 10th).

We have the 7th pick and to say that nobody like a 10, 15 or 30th pick is available now is asinine.

Sure, those guys were exceptions but there are always exceptions. High pick busts and mid-to-low pick stars.

I'd like to hope that whomever we land (assuming we use the pick) could perhaps end up as one of those better-than-expected players.

 

GPB, it’s not asinine to say what Wiz wrote — it’s far more likely than not. A certainty? It’s up there.
I do share your hope about 7 (which is why I’m less in favor of trading down or out unless … ) … and 3 of 4-5 draftees who are in that range (and will be there) have game. What they become?

 

i think one aspect that people often forget when bringing this stuff up is how much these guys develop AFTER coming to the league. I remember Butler on a podcast a while back talking about his third season being do or die for him and how he had a wakeup call to work harder the summer after his sophomore year just to survive. Similarly, there were people who used to think Giannis' ceiling was Batum well into his second year. These late bloomers did not have the prior body of work necessary to be drafted higher. They simply had a requisite amount of skills and terrific athleticism/physicals, and unparalleled work ethics to get to where they are.

 

Who is being "asinine"? I wasn't talking about mistakes, I was talking about missed opportunities, and that, as far as we know, no player like those three are available now, so no opportunity.. which is directly the context I'm using with potentially trading the 7th pick

Portland drafted CJ when Giannis was available. That wasn't a mistake, but it was an opportunity the Blazers missed on, like several other teams did, yes.

And for fucksakes I wasn't talking about PG13 and Butler when they were draft prospects. Portland was making offers for PG13 when Indiana was looking for to trade him. That was 2017 after PG had averaged 24-6-6 (4 time all-star); and when the Blazers had three first round draft picks in the 2017 draft and they were offering all three picks, but Olshey was holding CJ untouchable in that trade (notice: draft picks offered for all-star level player...very on topic). Meaning he was likely offering something like Harkless and Meyers for PG13 which is an asinine offer.

Same thing happened in 2018 when Butler was available (4 time all-star), and again, Olshey held CJ untouchable. Giannis was just a missed opportunity because he was such a long shot to be an elite player. PG13 and Butler were both missed opportunities, and mistakes, because the GM was asinine and grossly overvaluing his favorite player in the whole wide world

 

Well.... here's the problem..... to really have a chance of building a contender, we need a legit second star. Boston has Tatum and Brown. The Warriors have Curry/Klay/and Poole has been playing like a star. We have Dame and..... maybe Simons? So right off the bat we're miles away from being able to contend. We need that second star. Could Collins be that guy? Maybe. Could Grant? Probably not. Could any of the guys available at 7 be stars? Absolutely.... but it depends on how long it will take and at what position. If we draft a guard, regardless of whether it's BPA, that's going to make it difficult to help us contend. Especially if it's someone like Sharp.

 

It was a mistake to draft another short scoring guard, the year after Dame won ROY. Not saying we would have taken Giannis, but even at the time I thought it was a weird pick.

 

CJ was the 3rd best player in that draft. That pick was hardly a mistake. Do people realize that Trey Burke/Ben McLemore/Cody Zeller/etc were picked ahead of CJ?

 

Right. Another reason why character and investigating these guys is so important.

 

This is how I see it.
By keeping the 7th pick and keeping the player we draft, are we robbing the Trail Blazers of competing for a championship?

If the answer is "no" the choices the Blazers should make are clear. Draft the player whom we think will be the most impactful player in 3-4 years, with the main concern their rookie season being improvement. If they can make an impact right away that's a bonus.

 

I have multitudes of Buck fan friends from my working days and everyone of them were pissed when the Bucks drafted the Greek Freak. No way people thought he'd turnout super star.

 

Yep, there was nothing wrong with drafting CJ. CJ was and is an excellent player. You need more than 2 guards on a team.
Even if no one gets injured throughout the season. The issue was they never got that 3rd guard to complement the two. A healthy
Wes may have been that guy. Hart, could be that type of guy. But CJ was not the problem. One can argue that his contract was an issue, but CJ the person, and the player was IMO the perfect 6th man. Just because a guy is a lottery pick does not mean he needs to be a starter, but he should be in an 8 or 9-man rotation for a playoff team. Regardless there are very few draft picks who will be ready to contribute in that role in year one.

I can't wait for the draft, but at the same time, this board will be extremely annoying that night. People are going to lose their shit no matter who we get.

 

I see them trading up top 4 or trading 7 and some for a very good vet pkg.
Both would qualify for being super aggressive/swinging for the fence moves.

He's been consistent that the goal is to build around Dame.

 

I'm all in on Duren. He will be a star caliber player in the league.

 

Sorry, I misinterpreted your post. I had thought you were saying nobody at 7 would possibly pan out as well as Giannis, etc.

As you explain it makes sense what you were saying, we aren’t going to get a Giannis, etc immediately from the draft.

I did not mean it to come across as a personal attack and sorry if it did. Just thought the statement that nobody could ever be at that level was what you were saying and wanted to vehemently disagree.

I’ll go back to mostly lurking again.

 

The first paragraph is easily misinterpreted. Some people "misinterpret" other posts intentionally. You didn't so don't worry about it. That's my opinion.

I still see people dismissing the value of proposed moves because that single transaction won't "put Portland over the top"...won't "make them a contender". I think that's a poor gauge because no single move: trade, draft pick, or signing, will make the Blazers contenders. It will have to be a process; a series of moves, and the 7th pick is just the beginning of that process. Portland had their opportunities to land Giannis, PG13, and Butler. No player like that is available now

 

no problem....I misinterpret what people say quite often

mainly, I think my point is this: Portland can't punt the 7th pick to future drafts; they can't have a 7th pick next year or the year after. That asset has to be used in 8 days, either on a player drafted or a player traded for

there almost certainly won't be a Giannis in this draft. There might be a Butler, or a Klay, or a Booker, or an Adebayo. The trick would be landing on the one or two players that might reach that level, eventually, and who would fall to 7. But what are the odds of actually landing on that player vs the value of an established player? I think taking the chance of striking gold with the 7th pick probably stacks up favorably vs the trade alternative when that alternative is a player 28 years old at Grant's level. But the equation changes quite a bit when the player is somebody 24 years old at the level of John Collins

that's the calculation that needs to be made, IMO