Serious questions from the under informed: Are the Ukrainians certain the Russians aren't sandbagging them? Are the Russians drawing the Ukrainians in so that they can encircle them and/or hit them with a roundhouse punch? What might the Russians have in reserve in terms of equipment and materiel? Do they have better or more up to date equipment held back just for situations like this? Or have I read too much military history and am overthinking this................??
Will you give us your take on this region being primarily pro Russia and that the locals might rather be part of Russia as it stands? That is the commentary many are repeating about this northern most area.
Putin just sacked the head general after 16 days on the job....I don't think this is a rope a dope move...also most of the politburo seems to be hell bent on sacking Putin right now. The wealthy Russians want their yachts and money back.
My opinion is that most of the people here and in Donbass would be ok with either government, at least before the war. But I think I lot of people have been turned off by russian brutality, looting and indifference to damage to civilian structures. I know that in Odessa, which was considered very pro-russian, that most people, including the mayor are now very strong pro-Ukrainian. Having rockets fired at civilian targets will do that.
The Americans would be all over this. We would see it coming from a mile away. I'm fairly certain Ukraine wouldn't have moved without our all-clear. Russia is broken. They're a paper tiger.
The russians just aren't that smart. And I think this is what happens in a totalitarian system; people forget how to think for themselves. Ukrainian soldiers use the western model; every sergeant has some discretion to react to changing circumstances and make his own decisions. It would not be a very good plan to allow an average of 500 soldiers a day to be killed and 25 tanks a day destroyed and giving up key railroad junctions to set a trap. Ukrainians have a tremendous amount of intelligence to work with: satellite photos, intercepted calls by russian soldiers.. reports from patriots in occupied territories. I think I can safely guarantee you that this is not a trap.
Putin's Key Man in the Artic Found Dead After Falling Overboard The death of a Russian energy executive over the weekend adds to a list of mysterious deaths of high-powered national businessmen since prior to the February 24 invasion of Ukraine. Ivan Pechorin, 39, managing director of the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, reportedly fell off a boat at full speed and died Saturday near Russky Island in the Sea of Japan in Primorsky Krai, Russia, near Vladivostock, about 5,800 miles east of Moscow. Pechorin worked under Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the Russian publication Komsomolskaya Pravda, modernizing aviation in eastern Russia while developing resources in the Arctic in light of heavy sanctions. Pechorin's last public appearance reportedly occurred at the Eastern Economic Forum, held from September 5 to 8 in Vladivostok. The Daily Mail reported that Pechorin spoke during a session called, "Everyone has their Own Route: The Logistics of a Changed World." https://www.newsweek.com/putins-key-man-artic-found-dead-after-falling-overboard-1742218
So, it's more than windows and gas tanks. It seems this plague includes drownings and mysterious illness.
Day 202. The Ukrainian army liberates more than 6,000 square kilometers, including the entire northeast of the Kharkiv Oblast and about 500 sq km in the south, from the Russian invaders, launches more than 100 strikes on the Russian positions in the south and continues to advance. Russians likely order the withdrawal of its troops from the entirety of occupied Kharkiv Oblast west of the Oskil River. Zelenskyy rejects negotiations with Russia. More than 800 Ukrainian settlements remain without electricity after the Russian attacks. Nine more ships with grain leave Ukrainian ports. The second backup power line to Zaporizhzhia NPP restored. Bodies of four tortured civilians found in a liberated village in the Kharkiv region. Ukraine calls for more Western arms after the Russian setback. Ukraine received $18B in aid from international partners.
A relatively intelligent and well-executed offensive in the Kharkiv region. Picked an area with poorly trained conscripts and didn’t telegraph the attack like they did in the South. This was all helped by surveillance and satellite data provided by the US, along with all the weapons and equipment. Unfortunately they weren’t able to completely encircle the Russian troops around Izyum before most of them got out, allowing them to somewhat regroup after their disorganized retreat. But sounds like they still captured thousands and captured around 300 Russian armored vehicles which they can now use themselves. While the offensive has slowed a bit, (probably because the supply lines can’t keep up and to set defense lines in case of a Russian counter-attack) they still advance toward cities like Lysychansk and Sievierdonetsk, which Russia fought a month to take. Slower in the south in the Kherson bridgehead after Ukraine sustained heavy losses initially, as did Russia. However Ukraine continues to target Russian supply lines and seem to be winning the war of attrition despite Russia having skilled and motivated Airborne Divisions in the area. It's only a matter of time until Russia retreats here as well. They just don't have the manpower/supplies compared to Ukraine. Rumors from Russian military that Ukraine is massing troops in the south with their eyes possibly on Melitopol or Mariupol but that’s not confirmed. Politically this is nothing short of a disaster for Putin. The military failures are combining with the increasing toll the sanctions are having in many areas, like aviation and the tech industry, due to so many components not being imported. Some companies may be planning mass layoffs. The danger is Putin pulling a scorched-earth temper tantrum, shedding any pretense that this is just a “special operation” rather than a war, and using tactical nukes to target Ukraine’s infrastructure and cities. We just saw them target the power grid as they liberate Ukrainians from electricity and heat. Putin could also try a full mobilization but that would cause further political harm and there's no doubt that the skill/motivation of the new manpower would likely not amount to anything other than more dead Russians. Hopefully this is just the beginning to a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, including Crimea. There's nothing to negotiate at this point until they do in my opinion, despite some allies like Germany and Italy wanting Ukraine to talk peace in order to lower gas prices. As a former member of Russia's parliament said on air, "We're now at the point when we have to understand it's absolutely impossible to defeat Ukraine using those resources and colonial war methods with which Russia is trying to wage war, using contract soldiers, mercenaries, no mobilization. A strong army is opposing the Russian Army, fully supported by the most powerful countries, in the economic and technological sense, including European countries."
