Politics Oregon Gov candidates

So the Oregonian published a poll today, 32% Drazan, 31% Kotek, 18% Johnson.

Assuming the poll is accurate, then I'd say Johnson is taking more votes from Kotek than Drazen, because in a 2 way race, there's just no way that Drazen would be ahead. At least, conventional wisdom would say so.

So, potential Betsy voters, this should be a wake-up call. She ain't gonna win. Who's your second choice - is it Drazen?

barfo

 

Not sure how you mean that, although it's a reasonable question/comment in any case.

barfo

 

Thank you for this. I listened to about the first 55minutes of the debate this morning. These are my summaries:

• Opening salvo:
  • Johnson: "Oregon won't go anywhere if we're divided. I won't let anything pass without bi-partisan support. I am supported by former heads of both parties, a republican ex-senator and a democrat ex-governor."
  • Kotek: "I'm a good person. I volunteer. Central Oregon likes to get stuff done, and so do I."
  • Drazan: "Kate Johnson sucked. You're no better off now than 8 years ago, and probably worse off. These other two aren't going to do anything different than she did, but I will."
• Gun violence (measure 114)
  • Kotek: "I support the measure. NRA supports both my opponents. We need to pass 114 and support additional new regulations ensuring background check on every sale, red flag laws, raising age to 21 to buy 'guns of war'. I am committed to ensuring young people no longer have to do active shooter drills in school."
  • Drazan: "I oppose the measure. Our gun laws are already strong. Laws will not prevent every tragedy. Government taking more freedoms will not make us more free."
  • Johnson: "I oppose the measure. It's costly to small local governments and not funded. I support additional gun laws including raising the age for some guns--but this is not a good measure.
    • Rebuttals:
      • Kotek: "I don't believe you Betsy, and nobody else does either"
      • Johnson: "You supported Kate Johnson releasing violent criminals"
      • Drazan: "Neither of you made kids safer. You even supported drug-user needle exchanges near schools
• Homelessness
  • Drazan: "I'll declare a state of emergency on homelessness. Need to support mental health and shelter space, but need to hold people accountable for making poor choices, including those who choose homelessness."
  • Johnson: "I'm actually doing something about it, repurposing wasted space. We need to reverse our "laissez-faire" attitude toward drugs. We need to address mental health."
  • Kotek: "I agree that we can restrict where people can live outside. We need to work tent-by-tent with individuals. My opponents opposed project 'turn-key'"
    • Rebuttals
      • Johnson: "I didn't oppose turn-key, but I had questions about its cost. Also, Kotek voted to allow tent cities"
      • Drazan: "Tent-cities are Kotek's fault. Both she and Johnson allowed measure 110."
      • Kotek: "I didn't say living outside was OK--just that it was unconstitutional to jail people for doing so."
• Housing affordability
  • Johnson: "Affordability is due to supply. Need to build 580K units next 10 years. Need to make more land available and reduce regulation. Need to expand urban growth boundaries."
  • Kotek: "Need 360K units the next 10 years. More construction workers. Get young people into trades."
  • Drazan: "Kotek has been one of the chief regulators to put more restrictions and costs on builders."
    • Rebuttals:
      • Kotek: "I tried to protect people from being evicted, and these two fought me on it."
      • Johnson: "But we also needed to protect the landlords who had 2 years of costs and no rent"
      • Drazan: "This was a one-party failure, where we had money to get out to landlords to support their lost rent, and the democrat-run state government failed to do so."
• Grade for Kate Brown in pandemic handling
  • Kotek: "Not gonna grade Kate. I'll grade the legislature that we were all a part of. My opponents here fought me on everything, so I'll generously give them a D+"
  • Drazan: "Not surprised. Kotek refused to hold Brown accountable for anything. I will--she gets an F because of how long kids were out of school. They were impacted the most by our COVID response."
  • Johnson: "Completely agree with everything Drazan just said."
    • Rebuttals:
      • Kotek: "I didn't want schools to be closed so long. We need to focus on supporting kids now."
      • Drazan: "Both opponents voted against reopening schools."
      • Johnson: "No, Christine, that's inaccurate."
• What will you do to support hospitals?
  • Drazan: "I will support a well-rounded healthcare system. I will lead with facts, not fear."
  • Johnson: "I supported hospitals. Kotek put too many conditions on money that could have been given to hospitals."
  • Kotek: "I advocate for access to affordable healthcare. I support the people on the ground, not the CEO's. I'm supported by nurses. My opponents are supported by CEO's."
    • Rebuttals
      • Johnson: "This is where an independent governor is valuable, because I wouldn't be beholden to nurses associations or other political lobbying organizations."
      • Drazan: "This is the problem with a single-party system. We can't be picking winners and losers."
      • Kotek: "We can't take care of our people if we don't have workers to care for them. We don't have a "nurses" shortage; we have nurses who aren't willing to be mistreated by organizations run by overpaid and unregulated executives"
      • Drazan: "Eroding the foundations of the hospital system will ensure that the nurses won't have anywhere to work."
• Our standardized test scores have dropped. What would you do?
  • Johson: "First, raise standards. Make schools focus on core competencies rather than socio-political issues.
  • Kotek: "Kids need mental wellness supported, smaller class sizes, and more choices around career and technical education. I passed a bill to help with that. Drazan voted against it, and Johnson doesn't like it"
  • Drazan: "I'm the only parent on this stage. Yes raise standards. Restore stronger graduation requirements.
    • Rebuttal
      • Johnson: "The problem with the student success act was the lack of accountability built into it. We also needed PERS reform, and it wasn't there."
      • Kotek: "Neither of these other two want more money in schools. I'm not going to politicize our schools."
      • Drazan: "I had legislation to fully fund schools--Kotek killed it. She picked winners and losers, and our kids suffered for it."
• What are your beliefs on higher education and funding
  • Kotek: "Need to increase college funding and support for student cost. Need to fund community colleges. Increase Oregon opportunity grant."
  • Drazan: "Community colleges are wonderful. I love them. University system also needs to commit helping students graduate in 4 years."
  • Johnson: "I think this is one of the few things that we all agree on. Universities need to stop cannibalizing each other--our 7 public universities need to complement each other rather than compete."
• When does life begin; should Oregon law be changed?
  • Drazan: "Yes, I'm pro-life. Oregon laws are the most extreme--elective abortion the day before birth is legal. I will uphold the law, even if I disagree with it."
  • Johnson: "I'm unapologetically pro-choice. I'm not going to opine on when life begins--I'm not a doctor. But I fully support a woman's right to choose."
  • Kotek: "Medical choice is a personal thing. Government should not be involved. Our laws are not extreme--they're where they need to be. It's not enough to say you'll follow the law; you need to champion them. I'm the only candidate supported by Planned Parenthood."
    • Rebuttals:
      • Johnson: "Planned Parenthood is wholly-owned by the democratic party; I was not given the opportunity to be supported by them. But I'm absolutely as pro-choice as anybody."
      • Kotek: "No--you were given the choice to present to them; you chose not too. I'm the only one who can be trusted to protect women's rights."
• Measure 110 (decriminalized small amounts of hard drugs)--stand or repeal?
  • Johnson: "Repeal. It's terrible. Drug problem in this state makes us an attractive place for drug abusers. Needs to go back to voters a second time."
  • Kotek: "Voters said we need a better way than just jailing drug users. I'm not quitting on this. 110 may be imperfect, but we need to refine, not repeal."
  • Drazan: "110 is killing people--OD deaths are up 20%. This needs to be repealed."
    • Rebuttal
      • Johnson: "$800M has gone out with no accountability. We don't just throw more good money after bad"
      • Drazan: "I opposed this measure from the beginning"
      • Kotek: "people are dying, and we want to spend time repealing laws? We need to get more recovery services out there and get people healthy"
      • Drazan: "This is Kotek--don't change, just keep doing the same thing we're already doing badly"

They were just getting to climate change when I had to stop. I'll have to catch the rest of it later.

 

Yeah, the poll is a small number of voters comparitively. But, I don't want Drazen anywhere near the governor's office. We don't need to become the next Florida.

 

I tried to watch it but found it too painful to bear. So thanks for the summary.

barfo

 

Sometimes people do really stupid things. And yes, if we elect a female DeSantis, we will become something like Florida, albeit without the hurricanes.

Then you'll help elect Drazen. Which is fine if that's what you want. It will be 'a change', so there's that.

barfo

 

Or every time Drazan says "I'm the only one..."

 

Pirates have a lifetime of regrets, and plenty of time to contemplate their failures as they sail onwards.

The poll makes clear this is a 2-party race. Johnson is too far behind to have a shot at winning.

I'd like two or more parties, but the current Republican party needs to be taken out behind the barn and shot.

barfo