We haven’t lost 2 in a row yet. 14 games into the season, 68 games left ~1/6 of the way through the entire season We would have to lose two games in a row 19 times in order to finish below .500 (40-42) 18 times and we would finish above .500 (42-40) Without doing the math for 3+ game losing streaks, or looking in detail at the schedule, I would say it’s plausible that we will finish with at least 42 wins. We haven’t played Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta, or Milwaukie yet. Which is 8/68
I think Portland's level of play is sustainable. They aren't doing anything that gimmicky or playing in a weird aberrational way. Grant is probably going to cool off from three, but then Ant is due (statistically) to get hotter. You can kind of see how there's an outside chance that Gary Payton has kind of a Detlef Shrempf effect, where a guy looks great on paper but kind of ruins team chemistry in an unforeseeable way through no fault of anybody just by taking minutes away from other guys. But I think that's only a possibility. Somebody is bound to get hurt, and if it's Nurk or Eubanks our really thin center rotation gets exposed. But simultaneously, with so many younger players getting minutes, some guys are bound to show improvement as the season progresses. Does anybody really expect Sharpe to be the same or worse 3 months from now? Ant is just now starting to play as well as he did during his best stretch last year. Portland survived the hardest part of the schedule, and hasn't feasted on any tanking teams as of yet (aside from Spurs). There are probably 15 easy wins ahead of us baked into other teams trying to lose for the Wembanyama sweepstakes. To me it's not about Portland playing above its level. It's more a case of a number of good teams may not have hit their stride yet. The fact that Portland, Utah and San Antonio came out so hot right out of the gates seems to indicate that a lot of other teams aren't playing as well as they could. Golden State, Denver and Pelicans really should be better than they are. Minnesota should either right their ship or ship someone out (probably Kat) which creates more balance. Phoenix is better than their .615 record. Memphis is probably better than .600. Even the Lakers have hit on a better strategy with Westbrook, which should make them better going forward. The Clippers now at least know there's no point in waiting around for Kawhi. I could see Portland drop down to .650 or .600 even without much of a dropoff in play, just by virtue of other teams solving their own internal problems.
Yeah, but knowing Maurice Cheeks, you were probably talking about if he was done using the bathroom on the team plane.
The Blazers have the best record in the west and the 3rd best in the NBA. Is that sustainable? No way If they lose these next two games they could drop to 6th. If they have a losing record on the road trip they could drop out of the playoffs. There is a very fine line at this point between 1st and 11th. However, they are in a much better position right now than I thought they would. The goal in my mind was for them to get better as the season goes on. We still need that to happen, and it could. But no way do they maintain a 70% winning percentage for the whole season.
1st in the West....and 1.5 games away from being a Play-In team. A bit early to come to much of a conclusion.
Too much parity in the west to think this is real. We might have elevated ourselves to at the worst a play-in status, but remain guarded about predicting too much better than that
On the flip side......because of the parity, it will be hard for anyone to win at a high percentage. So we could end up like I thought (46-48 wins) and still be fighting for the 4th or 5th spot. (which I did not think was possible)
Ask this question after Monday’s and Wednesday’s games and I think we’ll have a better handle on what’s reality. That said, where are the big bad bullies in the West that we’re supposed to think are more legitimate contenders than the Blazers? The Suns? The Blazers already own the season series over them and lead the Nuggets 1-0. I guess the Clippers could crank it up once Kawhi gets back, but he’s not exactly a horse you can count on to carry you to the finish line. I’m not seeing anyone that I think is inherently better than the Blazers. The fact is that the Blazers “big three” is a lot better than almost anyone (except Eric) gave them credit for and the bench is way deeper and more talented than expected. Winning is sustainable, maybe not at the current rate, but this team is a winner if relatively healthy.
Too bad Phoenix did not lose Ayton like many thought this summer. He has elevated his game and is a huge factor for them Without him, they would be one level lower IMO
I will say when Dame select his cabinet some day, and he will, all you "Morrisey" types...dont' hold your breath.
10-4 = .714 => 58-60 wins. No, that's not sustainable. Portland is 3rd in the NBA in 3ptFG%...that's very likely not sustainable either. but Portland has a +2.4 rating differential and that IS sustainable and that would, historically, project to 48-51 wins. And that is quite a bit better than all of the doomsday predictions of abject mediocrity ahead for Portland that were advanced in the off-season....actually advanced incessantly here since last season's trade deadline. what this start has conveyed is that the Blazers actually have some upside and potentially, some decent paths forward. That becoming a contender is not the impossible quest that many were saying it was. That there actually are substantive reasons for some optimism. That's a major step forward from the pervasive doom-&-gloom of February-->October around this place (remember how significant the 0-4 off-season was, according to some?) even if there are many who refuse to admit it yeah, the season could go south in a hurry and it's just about certain there will be a losing streak and a bad month ahead. But the team is resilient and entertaining and that's more than enough for me after the decade of the obvious mediocrity of the olshey-era
This is a new-look Blazer team that other teams have yet to figure out how to scheme for. NBA coaches are too savvy and will figure out eventually the best way to stop this 3-headed beast of Lillard/Simons/Grant. However, we also have weapons in Sharpe, Hart, Winslow, Nurk... etc. Our bench has kept us in some games and teams can't game plan against talented depth IMO without playing their best players many more minutes. I also think CCB is a player's coach and is already prepared for this. Is .700 feasible moving forward? Probably not. Is .600+ attainable? Probably!
We're not, but who is? San Antonio has already stumbled after a red hot start, but Utah hasn't really. Are we more real than Utah?
I can't remember where, but somebody pointed out that Sacramento started well the past 4 seasons, but never sustained it. I think they WILL sustain it. Are they better than us?
