Lots of threads about what the Blazers should do in the 2023 NBA Draft. In this thread I'd like to see your Big Board. Not necessarily who will be drafted by each team, but rather who you think are the best overall prospects. Here's my Big Board: My Top 14: 1. Victor Wembanyama 2. Brandon Miller 3. Ausar Thompson 4. Taylor Hendricks 5. Amen Thompson 6. Cam Whitmore 7. Scoot Henderson 8. Gradey Dick 9. Dereck Lively II 10. Brice Sensabaugh 11. Jarace Walker 12. Noah Clowney 13. Brandin Podziemsky 14. Leonard Miller My Most Underrated (on other Big Boards): - Brice Sensabaugh - Only 19.6 years old. He was the #6 points-per-minutes in the NCAA as a freshman. A PER of 26.4, and shot over 40% from 3. - Noah Clowney - Only 18.9 years old. A defensive rating of 89.8, ranking him #36 in the NCAA as a freshman. Averaged 11.2 rebounds per 36. - Brandin Podziemsky - 19.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 3.7 apg. He was the #5 leader in the NCAA shooting 43.5% from 3 pt. He tested at a 39.0" vertical in the pre-draft combine. My Most Overrated (on other Big Boards): - Anthony Black - Although I think he will be a decent prospect, most boards have him in the top 10. I have him ranked #16. - Nick Smith, Jr - Most boards have him in the top half of the first round. PER of 13.0. Offensive rating under 100, and defensive rating over 100. Shot under 40% from 2-pt range. I know he was injured for a big part of last year. I'd put him ranked around #39 - Jalen Hood-Schifino - Most boards have him in the top half of the first round. PER of 13.0. Offensive rating under 100, and defensive rating over 100. Assist-to-turnover ratio of only 1.3 for a point guard. I'd put him ranked around #37. Every year there are surprises. Who will be this year's second round gem, and who will be that lottery bust?
1. Wemby 2. Scoot 3. Amen 4. Ausar 5. B Miller 6. Hendricks 7. Walker 8. Whitmore 9. Coulibaly 10. Lively 11. Wallace 12. Black 13. Bufkin 14. L Miller
Top 1. VW 2. Miller 3. Ausar 4. Amen 5. Scoot 6. Walker 7. Hendricks 8. Whitmore 9. Wallace 10. Lively Underrated- Clowney Coulibaly Sasser Hawkins Overrated- Scoot Dick Murray Bufkin Leonard Miller
1. Wemby 2. Miller 3. Scoot 4. Amen 5. Walker 6. Ausur 7. Whitmore 8. Hendricks 9. Black 10. Coulibaly 11. Dick 12. Lively 13. Hawkins 14, George
Blazers need bigs. Large players that can play defense, rebound, make smart decisions. Roll the dice, take a chance on a young Center, maybe 2. I know the Bowie/Oden decisions came back to haunt Portland, and Meyers Leonard washed out and became an emotional basket case. C'mon Portland! We're getting KILLED in the paint. If the Blazers aren't going to trade for Centers, then dammit, start drafting some big strong dudes. Watford is too busy getting his spinny flippy action on to guard the rim. Jabari just stands there hopelessly clueless on defense. Eubanks is severely outmatched on multiple occasions. John Butler desperately needs a sandwich. Kevin Knox is simply not big enough to play lock down defensive Center. And of course Nurkic is on the decline as the higher salary starting C. I say use #23 & #43 to draft very large and strong athletes to bolster the Front Line. Make it a scary bench with hackers that can say... not in my house.
Apparently he can't shoot even though his midrange game is great and he's a top tier athlete. Also his bbiq is top notch but he's 6'2 so he won't be good in the NBA. Same fools who kept calling Shaedon Sharpe a long-term project.
Apparently your "most overrated" list should include Scoot, because I guarantee NOBODY else has him as low as you. What's your ranking system? Why so down on Anthony Black? Not a fan of defense?
I don't know if it's really 'down on Scoot' or rather just that I like the other 6 prospects better. I think Henderson comes with a lot of red-flags: - His PER was only 13.5. That's below average for the G-League. - 3.5 turnovers and 3.3 fouls per game. - Not only did he shoot 27.5% 3 pointers in the G-League regular season, he also only shot 46.5% for 2 pointers. That's not good efficiency. - For being a point guard that facilitates scoring, he only had a 98 offensive rating. Combine that with a 122 defensive rating, one of the worst in the G-League. - His G-League team only went 11-21, even though he has some solid talent on the team, including Leonard Miller. As for Anthony Black, yeah, meh. You ask about my ranking system. I try to focus on production on the floor and discount 'potential' as much as possible. - His PER was only 17.2. - His shooting is not good. 30.1% from 3. - Some people refer to him as a point guard, but he only had 3.9 assists to 3.0 turnovers (1.3 a/t) - As for his defense, he only tested out with a 6'7.5" wingspan, and only had a 96.9 defensive rating. I don't see a bad prospect there. Just not overwhelmed and don't think he's a lottery level talent.
One technique I do like to use to evaluate college players is to modify their stats using different factors. I start with PER. - I adjust for age (for example x1.25 if they are 19 years old, or x0.75 if they are 23 years old). - I adjust for Strength of Schedule. - I adjust for Win-Loss of their team (factoring in how many minutes they played each game). - I adjust for Defensive rating (PER is a bit limited measuring defense). Using those criteria, here are the players that had the best stats in college last year: - Brice Sensabaugh - Noah Clowney - Brandon Miller - Gradey Dick - Jarace Walker - Brandin Podziemski - Adam Sanogo - Azuoles Tubellis - Cam Whitmore - Dereck Lively II - Taylor Hendricks - Kobe Bufkin - Anthony Black - Amari Bailey This year is a bit unique in that many of the top players did not play college ball, so it's a bit difficult to compare the stats when it's not apples-to-apples. I recognize stats don't tell the whole story. I also understand that these rankings can be modified just by changing the adjustment factors for each of the noted factors above. I've tried to tweak those factors over the years to line up with the best NBA results. The stats can tell some of the story. The tough part of the evaluation is quantifying the intangibles.
Can you give your top 10 for the last 2 years? Im interested to see how your system grades out in the NBA
Here's 2022: - Chet Holmgren - Jalen Duren - Jabari Smith - Mark Williams - Walker Kessler - Tari Eason - Paolo Banchero - Jeremy Sochan - Johnny Davis - Kennedy Chandler - Keegan Murray Here's 2021: - Evan Mobley - Franz Wagner - Isaiah Jackson - Jaden Springer - Cade Cunningham - Jalen Suggs - Cam Thomas - Filip Petrusev - Charles Bassey - Moses Moody - Scottie Barnes It's a bit of a balancing act with the stats and adjustment factors over the years. When it looks like there's too much weight on youth one year, it throws off another year. But again, the stats don't tell the full story. It's a bit of the 'Money Ball' idea. Scouts often get enamored with potential, and sometimes miss out on the obvious production value.
My Top 12: 1. Victor Wembanyama 2. Brandon Miller 3. Amen Thompson 4. Scoot Henderson 5. Jarace Walker 6. Cam Whitmore 7. Ausar Thompson 8. Taylor Hendricks 9.. Tony Black 10. Gradey Dick 11. Dereck Lively II 12. Brice Sensabaugh
Who'd trade the #3 for Chet Holmgren? I'm kinda thinking I would. But I don't think OKC would be interested.
