This poster on Reddit did all the work. Want to take the time to look at where we sit after the draft. Player salaries, cap holds, future picks, etc. All values from spotrac (amazing resource) unless specified otherwise. TLDR: Set up to pay the tax. We have a lot of players now. A bunch of guards and we actually have wings but they aren't that good. Need a big badly. I did not put any FA signings besides our own or trades in. This post is meant to set up that conversation by outlining how much room we're expected to have to maneuver those. Salary Cap: $136m Luxury Tax: $165m (121.3%) Hard cap / Tax Apron level one: $172m (126.47%) Currently rostered players: Salary (23-24 cap %) Italics for non-guaranteed money Lillard: $45.64m (33.56%) Ant : $24.11m (17.73%) Nurk: $16.875m (12.41%) Shaedon: $6.314m (4.64%) Nas: $6.250m (4.60%) Knox: $3m (2.21%) Team Option deadline of June 29 - Could decline but I don't see it Keon Johnson: $2.809m (2.07%) Watford: $1.836m (1.35%) guarantees on June 30 Jabari Walker: $1.72m (1.26%) guarantees on July 20 Jeenathan Williams: $1.72m (1.26%) guarantees on August 1 - Likely cut Total: $110.274m (81.1%) - 10 Players Dead Cap: Used cap space that we're fucked for Andrew Nicholson (still): $2.845m (2.09%) Eric Bledsoe: $1.3m (0.96%) Didi Louzada: $268k (0.2%) Total: $4.414m (3.25%) note: Spotrac math was not mathing on the %s. I calculated the %s here myself because for some reason they had the total at 2.02%. Running Total: $114.688m (84.33%) Cap Holds: Placeholders for pending free agents. If we renounce the cap hold, the place on our cap is gone but we also lose bird rights, meaning we cant go over the cap to re-sign them. Draft picks are included here. Scoot Henderson: $9.77m (7.18%) Kris Murray: $2.847m (2.09%) Rupert: $0 (0%) 2nd rounders are not guaranteed and entirely negotiable. I think we could bring him on a two-way contract here since we now have 3 spots, our own G-League team (!!), and they don't count towards the cap Running Total: $127.305 (93.6%) remaining cap space: $8.695m (6.4%) - 12 players, at most 13 Free Agents: I'm only including players I think are likely to re-sign or that we should want to bring back. Feel free to argue about a specific player if the are/aren't mentioned. Players can be paid up to their max, which is determined by their years of service (YOS). This is their cap hold. Not the same. Keep that in mind. Jerami Grant: $31.433m (23.12%) - Should sign for less than his hold for his average annual value (AAV) Cam Reddish: $17.864m (13.2%) - Could see us re-signing him, not even close to this number, if not renouncing him. Likely to walk. Thybulle: $13.16m (9.7%) - Similar to Reddish, but more likely to re-sign, still not at that value. Don't see us renouncing this one though. Winslow: $5.327m (4%) - We should be renouncing him but could see a want to bring him back on a minimum. Likely gone. Drew Eubanks: $2.02m (1.5%)( - Could go either way. Cap hold isn't hurting us so no point in cutting him and he plays hard so we should bring him back around this value. Want back but might not be able to do it. Total: $69.804m (51.33%) Running Total: $197.109m (145%) - This is perfectly normal for the pre-FA period. We have 5 free agents that we should re-sign but all of them way below, or right at, their cap hold. Reddish and Thybulle are taking up a huge portion of that. Exceptions: Essentially "free space". Players can be signed with some and traded into others We only get one of these non-trade ones: Non-Taxpayer MLE: $12.403m (9.12%) - Signed Taxpayer MLE: $5m (3.68%) - Signed Bi-Annual: $4.515m (3.3%) - Signed GPII Trade exception: $8.3m (6.1%) - Traded into Expected Outcomes: These aren't necessarily in order don't get it twisted. Also just my opinon. So we've all seen the rumored Jerami Grant $150m/5y contract. Let's use his AAV of $30m (22%). His actual value should be less but I don't want to do that math. Thanks to /u/Arr0wmanc3r I didn't have to! His first year is $25.81m (18.98%) Running Total: $153.115 (112.58%) - remaining Luxury Tax Space: $11.885m - 13 Players I think we will bring back Matisse Thybulle, I just can't figure out his value at all. If anyone wants to do a better job here than me go ahead. I'm gonna just half ass it and say he signs for a bit more than Nas/Shaedon's deals, hopefully we bring him back at 3y length. Lets say $6.5m per year (4.78%). Running Total: $159.615m (117.364%) - remaining Luxury Tax Space: $5.385m - 14 Players Jeenathan Williams is going to be cut. There's no point in rostering him. Could see him coming back on a G-League deal. His deal is $1.72m Running Total: $157.895 (116.1%) - Tax Space: $7.105m - 13 Players We promised Ryan Rupert to a multi year deal but it has yet to be signed. It's not going to be by much. That's 14 players. So here we are. A bit below luxury tax. We've got 14 Players, at the minimum, with an extra spot. We have a TPE ($8.3m) and likely the TPMLE ($5m) left to spend. The roster as it stands is: Guards: Dame, Ant, Sharpe, Scoot, Keon - ($88.643m 65.18%) Wings: Grant, Thybulle, Nassir, Knox, Walker, Murray, Rupert - ($50.317m 37%) - Will change when Rupert's numbers come in. Not by much. Bigs: Nurk, Watford ($18.711m 13.75%) Clear need is another big. I didn't forget about Drew just don't think it's in the cards for us with our exceptions. Long shot he signs for the TPMLE, I don't think he's quite worth that money.
go grab some opponent bench players that aren't very good, and let Portland's heavy duty PR system get to work. Only high basketball I.Q. reporters can miraculously turn marginally talented free agents into key acquisitions.
Rupert is NOT going to be signed to a 2-way after the way his agent scared away teams for him to drop to our pick. He'll probably get about the same as pick #30.
Letting Thybulle walk might make sense. Definitely let Knox go. I'd rather have Eubanks and another ~$10m big than those two guys.
Wow props to that poster for writing that up. I honestly agree 100% with everything said. I think we should cut Jeneethan Williams and Knox. Resign Thybulle if he’s willing to take no more than 6.5 mil and go after another big or two.
If that's where the Blazers are, imagine Phoenix with 170 mil, just on 5 players. Golden State has been playing the tax game for years. I don't see how Phoenix can have any depth at all without trading Ayton. It's one of the big reasons they traded away Poole for an expiring CP3
Yeah I guess who is the big we can get for the non tax MLE but not for the tax MLE? If it's the difference for Naz Reid maybe Id cut Thybulle. We might be able to dump Keon or NAS if we need to free up a couple bucks. I'm not that high on Thybulle, but this team really needs defense if we're actually keeping the 4 guards. We may trade Ant or Dame though.
It will be interesting to see if Rupert is expected to be on the active roster and if he can fill the role of "defensive guy who shoots like crap" that Thybulle has played in his career.
It was reasonable. I don't know what he'll be demanding in the free agency market. I like Matisse as a very valuable bench piece.
I'm curious if it would be worth brining in Derrick Rose if we do end up trading Dame. I'd like to have him as a mentor for Scoot.
Get real. Why, cause some have said he reminds them of Rose. Some have said the same about Westbrook. He has Chauncey. Big pass on Rose.
Having a veteran presence is crucial. That can’t be the coach. What’s wrong with Rose? I’m not saying sign him to some big contract.
I mean, Pelicans need a point right? They tried to get Scoot and failed. But what if they took Ant? I think that's Ant's natural position and maybe we can get back Herb Jones + change or Murphy? None of the guys listed are FA options. Only trade.
If we fully commit to a rebuild (Dame trade) then FA is mostly not for us, if we can acquire a "value" pickup who perhaps we could later trade for a pick or player that fits then fine. Assuming we trade Dame and get players back then key for next year would be trading those players for further value perhaps at the deadline or earlier. Also nothing against having a few quality vets for leadership. But we do want to give the youngsters the minutes to develop
