Whole thing has gotten stale and this team needed some kind of change at the head of it. I think in the long run, it is best that Dame asked out now so we can get a good young core together and look for the future.
Is that true though? Golden St didn't have a top 6 pick before their run. Denver hasn't had a top 6 pick since Melo. Milwaukee hasn't since they missed on Jabari Parker in 2014. Miami hasn't had a top 6 pick since they missed on Beasley in 2008. Obiously we can throw out the Miami market, but even the Warriors built through drafting well, not high. The small markets who have had the most success recently, haven't done it through having a ton of top 6 picks. Yes, there are examples of teams having mutliple top 6 picks that have got good. There is also the opposite. Seems to me that drafting well and managing your trades/free agency properly is actually more important to small market teams than having a bunch of top 6 picks.
Forgive me, I'm really tired, and I feel like I've asked this already but entertain me. What is the path that works better, realistically, for our team?
But what younger all-nba talent are we getting (maybe) unless we trade dame? Our assets suck. So it's not a realistic path unless dame is traded. Or we wait 4 years and trade again and dame would be 37. You had to cut it at the pass now or we're fucked for a decade. I just don't see a realistic way other than what we are doing, and the only way to make it potentially move faster is trading dame. But I'm open to other ideas.
Curry was picked 7th Really for me it's the top half of the lottery. I can't remember but I think I have seen data about how big the drop off is in terms of talent once you get past.... top 5? I'd have to do more research.
1000%, which is why I continue to say that people can believe we're going to win a championship next year if they want, I'm not trying to stop anyone from having faith. Personally, my hope in this being a team that can win has decreased in the last month and even over a large period of time, not the other way around. While we agree things are different, I'm not sure they are better, but I don't want that to be the case. I hate to see people come in with unrealistic expecations for players/coaches, then when they are met, they lash out on the players/coaches as being bums or failures. It appears to be a cycle around here of building up the potential of young players, them failing to meet it, then wanting the proven players to be replaced by the potential of the next young group, which they will put unrealistic expectations on. Again, if you and others think this next group is poised to contend down the road, you have every right to do.
I'll try to slap together a quick database of the last 10-15 champions and the picks they had 5-10 years prior to their title and see what it spits out. One minute!
We could still win the Summer League Championship next year. Why do you have to be such a wet blanket!
I don't think anyone thinks we will compete next year. Our runway to put a winner together around Scoot just is tremendously longer than the runway we had for Dame. That runway was 1-2 years away from downsliding with him as our best player without many tools to add much to him.
I am so surprised at how excited I am to watch Scoot and Shaeden play together. I predict great things for that tandem.
@Natebishop3 There was no great database due to all the trades and whatnot, so I slapped something into a spreadsheet showing the location of each 1st round pick. Highlighted the busts in red and all-stars in green. The picks inside the black area are the picks the championship team had 5-9 drafts prior to winning it all. Looks like having multiple top 6 picks in that range only happened once for championship team and one of those wasn't even an all-star. Even my theory that they have to draft well (at least in the first round) is somewhat debunked. It's clear that teams who win titles, on average, don't do so off the backs of a lot of high draft picks of their own. Trades make it too complicated, but should obviously be factored in.
Appreciate your work, but here is the issue. It's in a vacuum. That vacuum is called, "All team have equal access to team-changing all stars". It appears you want it to be fair, but is not...and will not be so. The path of drafting our success may not be successful, and your data may display that. But it is the Trailblazers path.
I agree. You shouldn't take it as the gospal. No team is exactly like Portland, no time period will be exactly like this one. I'd throw out the Lakers/Warriors pretty quickly. I do think Denver/Milwaukee are fair to look at. There is no doubting, no matter if it was a small market, FA destination city, etc. that NO team in the last 12 years built a championship winner based around all-stars taken by them, at the top of the draft. Like you suggested, Portland could be the exception to the rule, just like they attempted to be the excwption to the rule by building a contender with a bunch of tiny guards who aren't great at defense. If I were in charge, I would try to not be the exception to the rule and make the path that much more narrow.
I went from big Dame supporter to “Indifferent” I want best value. If he goes to Miami I won’t pull for or against him. the longer this plays out the more likely he stays. And I’m ok with that. there are some that have wanted to trade him for awhile and I’ve never been in that camp
Ive realized there are so many very important parts of life and as much as i love Dame and the Blazers, this drama is not part of what i consider important in my life. Im half checked out until its resolved… in part because it does hurt to watch this all go down how it has. Thats what ive realized.
Reminds me of when we traded Sheed after making those runs to the WCF and we started over. It's going to be a long rebuild but we will be good again. Hopefully this time we draft right though and stay away from bad knees.
