Pac 12... 11... 10... 9... 8... 7...6...5...4... POOF!

that's a really vague and unsupported assertion

what monies were they asking for? And where is the evidence those schools asked for those monies because they "wanted to pay for their moves" rather than because they felt they had earned that revenue? That departing schools were making claims on revenue I don't doubt. But this narrative they wanted that revenue to "pay for their" moves looks very much like a hyperbolic press release from one side of a high profile divorce

we need to know exactly what money is in dispute. And if those schools have a legitimate claim on that money, it doesn't matter one damn bit what they hope to spend it on. It's all the same AD budget

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some pretty stunning irony at work in Corvallis and Pullman. They have been screaming about how unfair it was that the Big-10 and Big-12 came in, raided the Pac-12, and left devastation and a dying conference in the wake. How the departing schools were badbadbad for only thinking of themselves and leaving OSU/WSU behind

but in the very article you mentioned, there's a link to an article outlining what OSU/WSU want to do:



https://sportsnaut.com/oregon-state-washington-state-rebuild-pac-12/




now, I don't blame them a bit for trying to join the party and look out what's best for themselves; to end up in the most advantageous position. Just like the other 10 schools have done. I also think those headlines might be misleading. I'd imagine if it happens ( a ton of obstacles in the way) it will be all 12 MWC schools making a Pac-14; and not leaving any schools behind. But that's not known at this point

 

Pac14 brand would be way better than using the Mountain west, so makes sense to have merger go that direction instead, even if effectively it's 90% of what the mountain west was last year and only 10% Pac.

Probably would get buy in from all MWC schools and media partners to do the switch.

I guess hickup could be that OSU WSU would want bigger than 1/14 slice at this time so that would be something they have to bargain for.

Are there any other California schools not in the MWC? Ideally would be good if "new pac14" could have at least one bay area and one LA area school.

 

MWC has Fresno, san Diego State and San Jose state. So I guess they have decent regional coverage for bay area and LA.

 

MWC has Hawaii, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico (Vegas), and Idaho.

So I guess only Western state missing is Arizona.

Seems like best option for the Beavs is try to form this new pac/MWC, try to get a little bigger slice of pie or their own beaver streaming network revenue. Then over the next 5-10 years have the conference push like hell to promote that it's all west coast while Ducks Huskies LA recruits are having to agree to doing hundreds of flights a year to the East Coast.

 

Given that the Longhorn Network couldn't be profitable, I doubt a Beaver Network would be able to keep the lights on. Running and producing a network is tough business in a large market with a national brand, so attempting to pull one off in Corvallis would be reckless.

 

I'd hope OSU has learned their lesson by now that they're not in a position to be making demands for a bigger share than schools in much larger markets.

I think the MWC and OSU/WSU combining as one would be the most realistic best case scenario.

 

that sure seems inevitable, one way or the other. Either a PAC or a MWC. I still think it would be difficult to re-form a PAC if the existing PAC was bogged down in litigation

I was under-estimating the pools of money that may be in dispute. This article talks about what the PAC generated from men's March Madness in 2021:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/03...-madness-be-worth-to-schools-and-conferences/

over 38M. I did the math for 2022 and it was 14M (7 units). That's 52M for just two years of a 6 year cycle. Even assuming it was an atypical 2 years, the 6 year MM pool could be 120-150M

and if a Pac-12 team plays in the Rose Bowl, the conference would receive 75-80M. Considering the strength of the Pac-12 in football, the conference could be generating another 150M in revenue

those aren't the only 2 sources of revenue, but they are the main components. Just from those 2 sources, the pool of money could be in the 250-300M range. That's 20-25M per school which probably means a settlement might be a lot harder to achieve. The bigger the reward, the bigger the argument

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if this is the case, I will not be surprised, at all, if there is a filing by the PAC to have the dispute moved to federal court and maybe, the TRO lifted:

“In an interview Saturday, Jayathi Murthy, Oregon State’s president, asserted that her institution and Washington State should have the “sole right to make any decisions about the governance and assets of conference,” given that “the other 10 have elected to leave.”

The conference calendar stretches thru next August. Yet OSU/WSU want sole control over business that all 12 schools are conducting and revenue that all 12 schools are generating. Now, it could just be negotiating 101; but if that's what OSU/WSU are fighting for then the other 10 schools will almost certainly fight back

 

this was the published agenda of the full board meeting the judge prohibited, But obviously, unless prohibited by the bylaws, the board could have moved to other business

 

When USC/UCLA announced they would leave they lost their conference votes. So there is a precedent for OSU/WSU to push for the same with the now 10 schools that have announced they will leave.

Makes sense for OSU/WSU to push for most or nearly all of that money to pay off any required PAC liability or expenses, and afterwards stay with the members of the conference. Not saying they will ultimately get to keep it all, but theres a very logical argument that schools leaving forfeit their claim to those future PAC disbursements.

Now what is likely to happen probably needs some very good attorneys and accountants to do a detailed review of the bylaws, other conference and university agreements, applicable laws and relevant court cases. Highly doubt we get an unbiased factual good analysis of this reporting without somebodies agenda being pushed.

 

I wonder what previously has happened to departing schools share of revenue and assets when they switch conferences? IE when Utah/Colorado came over to the Pac did they get any of the prior year share of big12 revenue? When Texas A&M went to the SEC?

We haven't seen a power 5 conference collapse in a year like this before - but we have seen many huge programs switch conferences so there is probably precedent for this situation. Unless the pac12 has very specific bylaws or rules to specify what happens.

 

I am confused with all of this. What future disbursements are they talking about? After next August? That would make sense.
Before that time would not. And why would there be future disbursements....from who?

 

I don't understand it precisely, but Wiz posted earlier about how for example march madness is disbursed over 5 future years so for instance the 2024 march madness tournament would have 80 % of the proceeds undisbursed when the 10 teams leave and not be disbursed until 2028. Perhaps theres some much more from bowl games and other TV revenue. I assumed it was just a few million but Wiz was throwing around a 300 million figure.

 

In that case, I don't think the Pac 2 will be able to keep it all. Will the Big 10 or Big 12 pay the new schools for income from the last 4 years? No way. It seems to me in this particular situation, what is owed from March Madness, is owed to the schools that were in the conference at that point in time. (After expenses)

 

Well what you and I think conceptually might not matter.

Thats why I wonder what happens with other schools that leave conferences? Surely theres many cases that have happened where they have pending future disbursements of revenue.

Also what is in the PAC agreements.

Certainly think OSU/WSU should push for all the money they can get. If there is a legel route that lets them keep more of that prior revenue then good for them. They are totally screwed out of future revenue at this point and have major unique budget shortfalls from other school leaving the conference abruptly.

 

I'm not sure how accurate that is, and it may pivot on what constitutes an official notice, but maybe

I'm pretty sure USC/UCLA did not challenge the exclusion. Colorado didn't either. If any had challenged, not sure what would have happened

my math was quick and dirty. The NCAA disburses tournament money according to 'units', which are essentially earned by number of games played by conference teams . In 2021 it was 19 games and a unit earns around 2M; so the Pac earned 38M. In 2022 it was only 7 units, so about 14M. So, the PAC earned 52M in 2 years of a 6 year cycle that is pooled. I'm guessing that 2 year sample was probably much more than normal due to 2021. If you assume the other two 2-year samples were around 20M/year, on average, that would be 80M added to that 52M. So, around 100-150M in the Pac's MM pool moving ahead thru time.

for example, if the pool is floating forward at an average amount of 120M, then after next season's payout the pool would be around 100M after the 2024 season. If the courts find that only OSU/WSU are eligible for that, it could bump their revenue by 9-10M/year for 5 years. Say it was 90M. an extra 45M would mean a lot to OSU/WSU. But divided 12 ways, that's 7.5M for each school and I'm inclined to think if that's the only bone of contention, the 10 departing schools won't fight it

I've found conflicting information on how much Bowls pay to conferences. I overshot by a lot I'm thinking. The pool is probably closer to 25-30M than 100M. There is a lot of information here, but it's kind of confusing, at least it is to me:

https://www.rookieroad.com/football/how-much-do-colleges-make-from-football-bowl-games-7398370/

but Bowl payouts, as far as I know are disbursed in the current year. That's entirely different from March Madness which pays current and future based upon past

 

Hold on….so we are supposed to feel sorry for the poor Beavs and Cougs and now they’re just going to turn around and do the same thing to another conference?

 

Yeah, I think you are right here. It seems to me that I recall there not being much left over after expenses for most Bowl games anyway.

 

couldn't edit my post above for some reason but I found this:



https://businessofcollegesports.com/college-football-playoff-payouts/

so it is a substantial amount of money

 

No, clearly they're the bad guys in all this.