Though I think this is a very simplistic question that doesn’t really get into all of the complications and facets of the situation, of course I choose door number one. But it really is a lot more complicated than that. And there is a shit on of misinformation out there.
True. It is a hard path to follow though, when it seems both sides spend more time (mostly successfully) debunking the other’ claims instead of just reporting the truth. it really does make one want to move to no man’s land and remain removed from it all and come back out after the dust settles.
good post. At times I wish the President could line item veto so a decision could be made w/o have to take on other shit.
Part of this info has been confirmed by Russia, the rest, you decide. Russia has confirmed one of their experienced training pilots was shot and killed at a bus stop inside Russia. Why this may be important. It is believed due to combat losses of experienced Russian pilots. Russia has been calling up retired military pilots up to 60 years old.
Elon Musk has used his platform to spread a Russian lie that an American has been in Ukrainian prison for five years and is being tortured. Tucker Carlson shortened it to months, claimed the American was jailed for criticizing Zelensky and repeated torture lie. Both added Biden approved the arrest and torture because he wants to do the same here. Xitter own community notes corrected Musk. The man has been held since May for publicizing military information, not tortured, trial set for this month.
He was active duty training new pilots. And had a reputation that made his death news worthy. My impressions, maybe wrong, FWIW No clue who killed him or why. My guess is an Ukrainian special operation. But it could also have been a jealous husband, you decide. I do believe some retired Russian military pilots have been called up. No idea if it is 60-50 or 40 years old. Or maybe a select few with special skills. You decide.
Gotcha. Thanks for the info! Yeah, hate to say it, but if he's going around nailing married women he probably got what was coming to him... Wouldn't be surprised if it were Ukrainian special operation either. Wouldn't blame Ukraine for that either... Lol
Long but very thorough and fair military assessment by Romanian blogger @RaduHossu Night Summary (14.12.2023 03:55 RO/UA time): You might want to read this head to toe: 1. Situation on the frontline: 1.1 #Kupyansk axis: the Russians, started this offensive about 3 months ago, and the gains are absolutely insignificant (on the order of a few hundred meters), but the recorded and photo/video/satellite documented losses are at an overwhelming ratio in favor of the Ukrainians - 1:3 (one Ukrainian armored vehicle lost/damaged/abandoned compared to three Russian ones) according to some sources or even 1:5 according to others. 1.2 #Bakhmut: In this sector the AFU, unfortunately, has at least a temporary loss of initiative, in the #Klischiivka and #Andriivka area the Russians managed territorial advances. Even if these are not significant, they are a likely indicator of lack of ammunition, fatigue of AFU troops, or maybe an indicator of tactical withdrawal into defensible areas through fortified lines. 1.3 Avdiivka: In this sector, 2 months and exactly one week after the Russians initiated the almost army corps offensive, the AFU managed to stabilize the front, with the Russians losing the initiative. What is noteworthy here is that the Russians have the highest casualties in the entire war. Forget Vuhledar, forget Bakhmut. Avdiivka will go down in history, even if the Russians capture it, even if the AFU holds out, as the battle after WWII in which the Russians lost the most military equipment and men. Open #OSINT sources that voluntarily identify equipment losses on both sides give Russian losses in the Avdiivka sector alone as between 200 armored vehicles lost by the Russians (some sources) and 400 armored vehicles, and on some days the loss ratio was as high as 1:7 in favor of Ukraine. And consider that these figures do not consider all Russian losses, because not all of them were filmed/photographed or published by the AFU. 1.4 #Horlivka: The AFU continues to advance to the city gates, harassing the Russian Army and DNR militias. 1.5 #Herson-#Krynky: 300 Ukrainians vs 12,000 Russians (estimated) and AFU continues to hold multiple bridgeheads across the Dnieper, using artillery on the west bank, but also using FPV drones. ERATUS: In the last Night Summary I reported the fall of Marinka as almost certain. I assume this error and regret the misinformation. Marinka is still not under full Russian occupation, even if the settlement itself is no longer considered to exist. 2. #Russian losses since the beginning of the Avdiivka offensive: 2.1 To give you an idea, taking the official estimates of the Ukrainian MoD (just as an indicator, keep in mind that each side tends to exaggerate their opponent's losses, but the Ukrainian MoD was always pretty close to international estimates), between 6 October and 13 December, the Russian Army lost: - 60,410 men (killed, wounded, captured) - 905 tanks - 1512 armored vehicles (Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Armored Personnel Carriers, Armored Fighting Vehicles) - 1410 artillery pieces (Self-Propelled Artillery, Trailed Artillery, MSLR) A large part of these losses, I estimate at least 30% of the total Russian losses on the front are in that small #Avdiivka sector alone. 2.2 A Western intelligence report estimates that over 87% of active Russian pre-invasion army soldiers were lost, wounded, or captured and two-thirds of the number of active pre-invasion tanks have been lost by Russia so far. 3. International Aid: - The US yesterday announced a new $200 million military aid package consisting of ammunition for #HIMARS, #HARM missiles, #AIM-9M anti-aircraft missiles, 155 and 105mm artillery ammunition. Unfortunately, the $60 billion aid for 2024 that could tip the balance drastically in Ukraine's favor is still in the midst of the political battle in the US Congress; - Finland is increasing production of artillery shells for Ukraine, but also for domestic defense; - #Norway donates another NASAMS air defense system in a €1.8 billion package to be delivered by the end of 2023; - #Denmark announces a new €1 billion military package for Ukraine to be unveiled today; - The #European#Union has released the €10 billion for Hungary, which Viktor Orban used to blackmail the European Union and block €54 billion in financial aid to Ukraine. A vote will be taken today on granting this financial aid; ---- On the basis of points 1.3, 1.5, 2.1, and 2.2 I personally think it is absolutely obvious to everyone that Ukraine is achieving wonders on the front. These miracles, however, cannot be sustained with prayers, empty optimism and only with the absolutely incredible courage of the Ukrainian military. Based on these points that I have mentioned, which are from various sources, from official sources to sources documenting every loss based on evidence-based on images, to sources inside Western intelligence services, it seems to me that it is unacceptable for the West not to support substantial aid in 2024 for Ukraine to succeed in an offensive that is as serious as possible. Considering also that most of the Western equipment is operational, a considerable surplus in their numbers, coupled with the necessary ammunition, the addition of capabilities in the area of electronic warfare, and support for increased production of drones of all types, along with F-16s, could lead to a major step towards victory for Ukraine. Ukraine's victory is not just a victory of the victim against the aggressor, it is a victory of Western values against Russian tyranny, it is a victory of democracy against dictatorship, it is a victory of reason against a terrorist regime led by a war criminal. The alternative will affect us all, whether we want it or not. Whether we are on the border with Ukraine (like Romania, Moldova, Poland, or Slovakia) or in France, Germany, or Italy, and certainly whether we are in the US, Taiwan, or South East Asia. The "Northern Alliance" (not to be confused with Afghanistan) - as I've called the action of Finland, Sweden (which has delivered superb Archer self-propelled howitzers), Finland, Norway, and Iceland has raised the bar in the last 24 hours. This is an extremely positive signal, obliging the major European powers, but above all the United States of America, to show that they are not only discursively, but also factually for Ukraine's victory, not just for its survival by delivering arms, financial, and humanitarian aid in bits and pieces. That only leads to the protraction of the war, the death of even more innocent Ukrainians, and the reward of the state-declared sponsor of terrorism: the Russian Federation. Glory to the heroes! Glory to you! Glory to #Romania!
I know that all lovers of the rule of law in the world and lovers of Ukraine may be feeling a little down right now. So here is a good piece on why russia is losing the war. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1692840667838374343
Even after a massive surprise attack, in two years here is how little territory the world's "second strongest army" has been able to take and hold. the area circled in blue.
What bothers (angers) me the most is that USA has 5000 Bradley fighting vehicles, 30.000 Humvees and 1000 ATACM long range rockets in storage, already declared obsolete and waiting to be scrapped. Biden can ship any or all of this to Ukraine without congressional approval, They have previously approved disposal by pentagon of all surplus equipment. Meanwhile in Ukraine, they need to crowdfund just to buy used pickups and SUVs to transport troops.
Good report. The Russian strategy to control the battlefield was to overwhelm Ukraine with massive artillery barrages. Ukraine has taken away the Russians strength and made it their own. Well done. A little more to the artillery angle. North Korea has sent a large number of artillery shells to Russia. However, early reports claim the quality of the shells is so bad, not only is their accuracy very poor, some shells have damaged and destroyed the barrels.
Republicans joined with Putin against Ukraine, blocking aid unless Biden adopts their most extreme anti immigration policies.
Amazing how people manage to equate those two ideas. Not funding a foreign war = joining Putin. This is straight up 2003 Iraq war propaganda. It’s just crazy to see it coming from the liberal left. The media can get people to lockstep into literally anything, including right off a cliff.
