Game Thread 2023-24 Game #22 - BLAZERS @ CLIPPERS - DECEMBER 11, 2023 - MONDAY - 7:30 PM PST - ROOT

I don’t care to go back and listen. Go back and watch. He had nowhere to go so he made a lousy pass when he was in trouble .

 

It was predictable. As soon as he started the two dribbles right one left and back right crossover you knew he had blinders on. When they collapsed like we all knew they would only then did he look to pass to Sharpe which the Clippers (veterans that they are) all knew he would try to dump to his right ( SCOUTED). There was Kawhi waiting. Game over.
That's the difference between Simons and Dame. The Clippers would have had to bring defenders out to half court and dame might still have smoked them with a logo shot but would also have had way more room for that pass out of the lane because the spacing he creates.
Maybe in that situation Sharpe should have had the ball in his hands and looked for an outlet to Simons? These are the things this young team is learning now.
On to the next one!

 

We would have won if it weren't for the perennial Norman Powell Revenge Game.

 

Scoot had his best game, but he makes me so nervous. He's like a poor man's young Russell Westbrook: non-stop downhill with kind of sloppy handle and an ugly jump shot that he has way more confidence in than anyone watching.

 

You see I agree to a point. It was that play that put them down 5. A veteran team with a 5 point lead with a minute remaining is tough to beat. Even more so when the coach calls for a challenge that isn't going to make a difference and burns a TO. Rookie coach move as well. Billups even took some of the blame in his post game. I respected the way he addressed it. Said it was bad communication. Didn't throw anyone under the bus and accepted his part of the problem.

 

Do you want me to tell you who averages more assists and also less turnovers per/36 minutes between Ant and Sharpe?

Spoiler: You don't.

 

Ok, so I went back and watched it again... Like I posted in real time, Ant made a bad pass attempting to force to it Sharpe instead of taking a very makeable shot for him. It was a bad choice on his part. He should've shot it.

 

His handle is really loose for a point guard...I was not expecting that. He seems ready to dribble the ball away on every other possession.

 

Even Lamar Hurd pointed out that Ant had a left handed layup that he passed up.

 

I understand people have their biases, but watching Ant has been a breath of fresh air after watching the 20 or so games without him. You're telling me we got better shots with Grant barreling ISOs, Ayton having no space to even catch in traffic, and Sharpe giving up the ball. Like watching the 30th ranked offense wasn't eye gouging enough.

Blazers as a team had an ORTG of 106 before Ant came back. They have an ORTG of 120 with Ant. Beyond that, the offense just looks way better with Ant in there through the eye test. Rewatch the games and see how many times Ant makes a pass to the short roll and the Blazers play 4 on 3. I wish I had second spectrum but I'm willing to bet our expected shot percentage with Ant has been much higher than without him.

This is coming from someone who wasn't even a fan of Ant last year. He was decidedly mediocre playing next to Dame, but he makes way more sense at PG than SG.

 

Well said, I agree. I think Ant, Sharpe, Grant, etc all have some real strengths and obvious weaknesses.

I'm guessing Ant is going to have some real bad games where it'll be real easy to bash him (as will everyone else). Last night, he provided us 1.65pts/attempt while getting the most defensive attention from the Clippers (who have some high quality defenders), so seeking out reasons to bash him yesterday just seemed silly to me.

I still contend it's possible to think Sharpe and Ant are good enough players that we don't need to bash one to try and prop the other up.

 

Scoot's shot isn't amazing, but come on..... Amen Thompson has an ugly jump shot. Aminu had an ugly jump shot. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had an UGLY jump shot. I don't think Scoot has an ugly jump shot by any means.

 

That's all fine. Yes, he's playing well overall. Our team has better spacing with him on the floor and once Grant/Ayton/Brogdon come back, I think the team should snag a couple wins.

BUT I was merely pointing out that he seems to go to shit in the 4th quarter. You brought up that he's only 24, but Dame had many game winners by the time he was 24. I'm not seeing the cold blooded closer in Simons that we had in Dame, and that's fine. Not everyone can be Damian Lillard. He's a rare and special player. Arguably the most clutch player in the history of the game. With that said, if Simons isn't Dame, he needs to pass the fucking ball. We don't need him going 1 on 5 in the 4th quarter if he's going to shoot 30% from the floor and turn the ball over 2-3 times in crunch time. He has to adapt.

 

Here is Simons' breakdown by quarter. The stuff that stands out is that he does his best work in the third quarter and that 45% of his shots in the 2nd and 3rd quarters are assisted. That number tanks down to 25% in the 4th quarter when he tries to go MeJ. His two worst quarters are the 1st and 4th where his assisted shots go down. So clearly our offense changes and/or Simons changes what he's doing.

 

I'd have to try to dig it up, but I'd also wager that the second and third quarters are probably when Simons plays the most minutes with Scoot.

 

Sharpe averages 0.238 assists/FGA
Ant averages 0.235 assists/FGA

suggesting that Sharpe is slightly more inclined to pass than shoot over Ant

Sharpe averages an ast/usg ratio of .687
Ant averages an ast/usg ratio of .827

Ant's assist rate is 26.9%; Sharpe's is 15.6%. Of course, Ant (according to bbref) has spent 54% of his career playing PG so he should have a lot higher assist rate than a 20 year old SG. Ant's 26.9% assist rate is significantly less than Brogdon at 36.9% and Mays at 35.9%. And that brings up the point that Ant's assist rate is almost certainly skewed because he hasn't had to share the floor with Brogdon, Grant, and Ayton the last 3 games. When he did share the floor in game 1 his assist rate was 21%. On the other hand Sharpe has shared the floor with those three players so his assist rate would logically be lower

when Ant did share the floor with the 3 missing players, his usage rate was 23.5%. After the last 3 games, his usage rate is 32.5%. For reference, Dame had exactly one season, last season, with a usage rate over 31.5%

worth mentioning sample size again. Ant has only played 4 games so a good game or bad game can significantly change his numbers. For example, going into last night's game Ant's TS% was .565 and his FT Rate was .191. After last night, his TS% is .595 and his FT Rate is .294