Game Thread 2023-24 Game #26 - BLAZERS VS SUNS - DECEMBER 19, 2023 - TUESDAY - 7:00 PM PST - ROOT

Billups is saying we have too many chill dudes in the starting lineup and that's why we start slow.

He's not wrong.

Simons
Sharpe
Grant
Ayton

The only dude in the starting lineup who is instant intensity is Camara. I think Scoot could eventually be that guy, but he's TOO juiced right now. The rest of them are all super chilled out, which isn't a bad thing. It's just that they can't ALL be like that at the same time.

 

Thybulle shot a career high 36.5% last season, which is solid, but not amazing.

You don't really think he's a better 3pt shooter than Ant or Brogdon do you?

 

This Suns team is in trouble. They mortgaged any chance of a future for KD and Beal. They’re nowhere close to title contenders. Now Beal is always injured. They may have to trade KD to salvage any assets for the future.

 

He shot .388 last year.

If we’re talking about strictly 3 pt shooting, yes. The efficiency backs it up.

Certainly not someone you want to leave open.

 

On a game he took 18 shots; not buying it.

 

Edit: sorry, the numbers for this season below do include tonight's game.

 

Thybulle shot a career higih 36.5% last season.

You said he may be our best 3pt shooter. Ant is a career 39% 3pt shooter (on much harder shots) as is Brogdon. I'll ask again:

Do you really think Thybulle may be our best 3pt shooter?

 

This season yes. What does what a player did to start their career 3 teams ago have to do with anything?

If you ask any coach they’d say you don’t leave open a 40% 3 point shooter

 

Sample size.

Do you believe Thybulle will finish the season above 40%?

 

That's perfect description.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again... I think Scoot is going to be the engine of this team, but he's not ready yet.

 

Rotation makes a lot more sense with 3 high usage guards instead of 4. Once Sharpe went out that simplified things. Just like when Brogdon was out for a few games.

 

Noticeable difference.

 

After a scorching 1st quarter for the Suns, we played some impressive defense the rest of the game. Held the Suns to 104 points which is 11 points below their season average.

 

Different team. Different usage.

It doesn't matter to the Trail Blazers what Matisse did before he started playing in Portland.

which number matches how Thybulle is shooting now with the Blazers?

33.3% in Philadelphia, or 38.8% he shot last season as a Trail Blazer?

Do you expect Thybulle to revert to 33.3% 3-point shooting?

 

I expect him to finish above 37%. Theres too much variance that can happen to predict that he'll be above 40

 

I do not expect him to revert to 33.3% because that number came from 49 games, which I don't believe is a large enough sample size. Just like I don't believe his percentage in 47 games with Portland is a large enough sample size.

If I had to guess what he'll shoot from this point of the season on, I would guess around 36-37% based on career averages and overall trajectory.

I still haven't found one person who claims that his percentage in Portland is the only thing that matters that would also bet me his percentage doesn't go down the rest of the season. And let me repeat myself, I love Thybulle, I do think he's improved, but "best 3pt shooter on the team" is wild to me.

 

I think that's fair, 37% seems like a good number to me as well. It implies we both think his current shooting is above what we believe is likely to be sustained and why we shouldn't use the 40% to characterize what type of shooter he is.

Just like when Nurk shot 46% from three from Oct-Dec last year, it wouldn't be fair to say he was a better 3pt shooter than Steph because he was only shooting 44% during that time period.

 

Isn't Billups the guy who chooses the starting lineup?

Scoot didn't look so juiced when he was with the starters at the end of the game.
Coming off the bench Billups probably wants him to score, but with the starters he can concentrate on defense and getting the ball to his teammates.
Sharpe might be better off coming off the bench as the go-to scorer.