Game Thread 2023-24 Game #28 - BLAZERS @ WARRIORS - DECEMBER 23, 2023 - SATURDAY - 5:30 PM PST - ROOT

A lot of things seemed to just stop over night when Simons came back.

People like to say that our competition improved so our defense fell off, but we held Indy in check and beat them. That was without Simons.

 

We also held Phoenix in check with Simons (a certain someone was motivated for that game). Correlation doesn't equal causation. Dude could be defending like Marcus Smart and this defense wild still suck right now and people would still blame him based off correlation.

 

Ine of the biggest correlations here is Portland is now playing a lot of 3 guard lineups.
I think that has more to do with the defensive falling off than just Ant playing again.

 

If we had Shaq as a coach we’d have three center lineups.

 

Actually my big complaint hasn’t been his defense. It’s how everyone stands around twittling their thumbs while’s he’s adamant in out dribbling his defender and putting something highly contested up. My least favorite kind of basketball.

 

One game out of how many since he came back? And Phoenix bricked soooooo many shots.

 

IIRC, Portland was either 9th or 10th in DRating with a mark of 112.9 prior to Ant's return. The ratings of the subsequent games:

112.8 - @ GSW (ranked 12th on offense)
121.2 - Dallas (9th)
136.8 - @ LAC (7th)
128.6 - Utah (23rd)
126.3 - Dallas (9th)
122.4 - GSW (12th)
106.1 - Phoenix (15th)
120.1 - Washington (24th)
132.1 - @ GSW (12th)

so then, 9 games, only 3 on the road.
Prior to the 9 games a d.rating of 112.9
Average Off. Rating of opponents: 14th
Average rating in the 9 games was 121.9 (9 points worse)
Prior defensive rank: 9th. Current rank: 19th
Current D. Rating: 115.8 (2.9 points worse)
Prior net rating: -5.9; current net rating -6.8

rotation ranking in defensive rating:

Robert Williams 108
Deandre Ayton 112
Kris Murray 113
Jabari Walker 113
Matisse Thybulle 113
Duop Reath 115
Toumani Camara 116
Skylar Mays 118
Malcolm Brogdon 118
Shaedon Sharpe 118
Jerami Grant 119
Anfernee Simons 120
Scoot Henderson 120

rotation ranking in DBPM:

Matisse Thybulle 3.2
Robert Williams 2.8
Kris Murray 1.8
Toumani Camara 0.3
Duop Reath 0.1
Jabari Walker -0.1
Deandre Ayton -0.2
Malcolm Brogdon -0.5
Skylar Mays -0.6
Shaedon Sharpe -0.8
Jerami Grant -1.0
Anfernee Simons -1.5
Scoot Henderson -2.0

I agree that sometimes, correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. I'd also agree we are looking at small sample sizes; small enough that one bad game, or one good game, can shift numbers quite a bit. That's enough to maintain at least a little skepticism about the numbers

but the correlation between Ant's return and the defense getting dramatically worse is hard to ignore. And considering how predictable the two circumstances were in terms of correlation, there is almost certainly some causation at work.

 

Simons looks better at defense, especially 1 on 1. Billups is experimenting with active trap defense, which coincided with Ant's return. Remember a few losses ago when Coach yelled at Ayton for playing drop instead of pressuring the perimeter?? Greaaat... now Blazer bigs are patrolling the 3 point line, leaving Blazer point guards to defend the rim.

I keep seeing Blazers sneaking over to help Anfernee on defense. Either a slow engaging trap, or a shadow drop to prevent the drives. Even crummy teams like the Wizards can easily pass around the lopsided Blazer defense. I say let Anfernee earn his paycheck, quit hedging the defense to help him out. It's not working.

Leave the Blazers bigs down by the hoop, quit horsing around with this "trap everything" concept, and let's see if we can beat those Spurs. woohoo ! GO BLAZERS !

 

Yeah, one of the reasons they need to trade Brogdon.

 

He's done a good job playing in the flow. You need guys that can create a bucket. The offense was dead last and he's come back and made it respectful while averaging a solidly efficient 27 & 5.

Seems like you wouldnt enjoy having Luka, SGA and a number of other guys on this team too then.

 

The one thing Portlands defense has done this year is force opponents to brick threes.

 

It's all Camara's trash talk!

 

Luka averages almost double Simons assists. His teammates are always looking for a pass from him.

 

Plus he's like..... 6'7? So totally not an undersized score first guard.

 

But he creates a lot of those plays out of a ton of 1v1 basketball.