Game Thread 2023-24 GAME #66 - BLAZERS VS KNICKS - MARCH 14, 2024 - THURSDAY - 7:00 PM PST - ROOT

Where did I say I came to a conclusion? I said I'm starting to worry. I am. I have reasons to be, and they are valid.

1. His mistake level is very, very high. By that, I mean bad shots+fouls+ turnovers. Add missed layups to that, too, if you like.
2. He hasn't had a game yet where he shot a reasonable volume that he was 50% from the floor that I can remember, let alone stringing multiple games like that together or having 3 out of 4 like that. However, he's strung together multiple stink bombs together several times. You can find several games this year where he shot less than 20% getting good minutes.
3. He's played the last two years against pros.
4. Every time he misses a couple of games, it's like we're back at square one again with him.

Sure, you can say he had a bad half tonight, but it wasn't really a bad half. It was a terrible half. And it put us in a double-digit hole by halftime and we never dug out of it. One could as easily say Scoot had his good half when the Knicks weren't worried about him because he isn't consistent enough to bring the Blazers back from 15 down.

He ended up 4-for-13 and 1-for-4 with five fouls. Is that a bad half or a bad game? He's 15-for-45 now in four games coming off his injury. He's not shot better than 41.6% in any of those games, so it's not the product of one or two very subpar performances skewing his stats. He's consistently struggled mightily.

 

That's fair.

 

Marang trying to sneak in coaching tips to Billups ... lol

 

You are worrying. How valid your worries are is in question.

Tonight proved, at age 20, in his rookie season, playing with a substandard roster, against a playoff team, he's not good enough to carry the team.

His season has proved, at age 19-20, with a substandard roster, he can succeed against 2nd units, and struggles much more against NBA starters.

 

Presume the tank is in: Ayton's impact on outcomes is diminished substantially by poor guard play than the inverse.

Let him play. He can feast and get a bit of confidence without likely impacting the tank.

My guess is that's the thinking. He's a really nice talent but the way he plays won't win you many games on its own. He needs guys who can get him the ball and make shots off his screens and defend a little on the outside.

 

We're not anywhere in the ballpark to talk about him carrying the team. He hasn't shown anything near an ability to do that. I'm talking about an ability to not get crushed on a semi-regular basis against average starters on average teams.

You're trying to move my goalpost.

And no, the validity of my worries aren't a question for you. They are my worries. If you want to invalidate my REASONS for worrying, you might actually, you know, try to post something substantial, I don't know, maybe stats, learned observations, something, anything beyond "You are wrong."

 

oh I agree...I don't think Ayton has a big impact on wins for a team like Portland. He's more of a supporting player rather than a featured player

I was just a little concerned about playing a 7' C 40 minutes each game of a B2B. Considering the circumstances, that just doesn't make sense to me. Fatigue can open the door to injuries and Ayton is definitely not an iron man

 

How did I completely space that we had a game today? I figured since we played last night at home we’d have at least a night off

 

i'll recap the game for you:
... Brunson & Hart beefcake mode

 

I agree he's nowhere near being able to carry the team. I pushed back when people thought we should just trade Ant and give him the keys, for that very reason.

And yes, you are worried, we agree... I have posted stats and observations and I don't believe I have said "You are wrong" as you quoted me saying. No need to make stuff up.

 

Is Doup hurt? Have other teams just scouted him? He is no where near the player he was earlier this season

 

minutes per production. Reath's better numbers came from more reps. With Ayton at full strength, and new Blazer Banton usage rates climbing, Duop only gets a couple touches per night.

 

Big market PG shoots more FTs than entire small market team. Highlights of endless FTs at 11:00.

 

I mean my signature “DONT DRAFT SCOOT” should signify I didn’t have high hopes for the guy. That said, I’m not one way or the other on him being a bust or not. I said I’ll wait at least a full year and more likely two before making a solid judgement.

But with that in mind, I think anyone who expected him to have a PER worse than Sebastian Telfair and acts like that’s no big deal is kidding themselves. As I noted, I didn’t particularly want him, and I thought he would be better than that.

One side has a legitimate argument: He has been bad beyond belief. There’s virtually no “on the court” stat-based argument that he is a future franchise PG - as of now.

He very well may turn out to be one - as you correctly point out - he is young. But to act like over his first 50ish games him being appallingly bad isn’t at least notable is disingenuous - at best.

 

Again, I've never been comfortable with the idea of giving him the keys and trading away legit starting players to make room for him, for many of the reasons you listed. I'm not ready to say he's been "appallingly bad". I worry making any comparison to specific rookies from the past, good or bad. I believe I'm less worried about his shot than most because I can't think of many 80%+ FT shooters that had a broken shot throughout their career. I could be wrong though.

Back in October you said Scoot was a good play-maker and he was playing around guys who can't shoot. I tend to agree with your take. A guy who is a good play-maker, is a good FT shooter, and by all accounts has a great work ethic, is what prevents me from worrying. Also, me worrying won't change anything.

 

Me too.

So right. I used to think we had something in Reath.

As for Little Scooter, he is such a slow learner that I've given up on him improving in 2024-25. Now I'm hoping for 2025-26. But I'm not saying yet that he's 2 years away from being 2 years away. He's no Meyers Leonard, yet.

 

Oh, please. That last line is so much semantics. You were the one that made the comparison that Scoot going 7-for-8 would make me change my mind when 1. Scoot hasn't ever done anything close to that near year but the opposite several times and 2. I was and have consistently cited the trend in his play (with stats to support it) and you've just come back with stats like ... he's young and only has a 50-game sample size.

As you said, no reason to make stuff up,