Bust a Scoot?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Portland2014, Oct 16, 2023.

  1. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

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    Scoot had a good second half tonight. He needs to start stacking good halves together.

    Murray looked decent, too. And Rupert, I think for as raw as he is, I think he was a steal. He looks like he can play.
     
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  2. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    The competition in the second half was quite different from the first half but yeah he hung in there.
     
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  3. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

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    At this point, I'll take what I can get.
     
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  4. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't call him "god-awful" as a shooter. 73.9% at the rim and 47.4% in the 3-10' zone are really good marks, and that's where he takes 74% of his shots

    upload_2024-3-23_8-55-26.png

    but he is extremely limited as a shooter at this point; and that may be a career long limitation

    he's actually fairly similar to Ben Simmons as a shooter:

    upload_2024-3-23_8-58-52.png

    but there are some differences that may lead to Amen having a much better outcome. Start with average shot distance. Simmons' career mark is 4.3 feet and 5.5 feet as a 21 year old rookie. Amen's average distance is 2-3 feet further. That might not seem significant but from watching that stat over the years it is. Couple that with FT%: Amen is over 67% while Ben was 56% as a rookie and I'd think that average-shot-distance+FT% is a positive sign for Amen. Obviously it's not a big neon sign; it's more a proceed-with-caution sign; but it is a bit hopeful

    if Amen can't improve dramatically from distance it puts a ceiling on his offensive upside. He's not nearly the passer that Simmons was (past tense?), but he does appear to have quite a bit of untapped upside as a passer and facilitator

    but Amen definitely has flashed plenty of upside as a defender; more importantly as a wing defender. He looks like a future all-NBA-defense candidate who possesses better efficiency than Brandon Roy did as an interior shooter. That's a pretty impressive start
     
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  5. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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  6. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    that's a very misleading stat. There was only 1 PG taken in the lottery, and only two taken in the top-24 of the draft: Scoot and Keyonte George. The only other PG taken in the 1st round was Marcus Sasser and he's only averaged 17 minutes and started 1 game

    so then, if you compare Scoot to Keyonte George

    upload_2024-3-23_10-36-24.png

    there is not a lot statistically that recommends Scoot over George...especially not some weird cherry-picked stat threshold. The only 'wait-a-minute' number is on defense suggesting George is a complete sieve
     
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  7. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    True. Still, rookies putting up 20pt and 10ast games isn't an overly common occurrence...

    https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-rookies-to-score-20-points-and-10-assists-in-a-single-game

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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  9. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    Scoot is going to be really good. His rookie season has humbled him and given him a glaring blueprint of what he needs to work on in the off season. Shooting from deep and developing a left handed game to balance out his ability to finish at the rim. He's had some great games and some wtf games but he's got a lot to figure out to get where he wants to be. I'm not worried about him. Sharpe I worry about a bit. I hope we see him play before the off season with the young guys.
     
  10. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    ........ Amen was billed as a point guard coming into the draft?
     
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  11. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    yeah, I remember that; and it was obviously a lot of projection

    Houston has the PG position well-manned with Van Vleet and Holiday
     
  12. FlashWad

    FlashWad Well-Known Member

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    I’m still hopeful Scoot turns it around and becomes a decent player I would actually be ecstatic. But I’m pessimistic, so we will see what happens.
     
  13. JDC

    JDC Well-Known Member

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    Id like to see his finishing numbers when it's not a right hand drive to a euro reverse...
     
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  14. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    Has this even happened this year?
     
  15. SharpeScooterShooter

    SharpeScooterShooter SharpeShooter

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    Scoot playing better after dusting off the rust from the injury. Love to see it. Kid will be fine. 16/10 from him is exactly what we need from that position for next year. Not 25/6.
     
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  16. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    I don't know how we can consider a guy who puts up multiple 20 and 10 games in the NBA not a "decent player".

    He's already decent, IMO. He's already more explosive than most NBA players.

    He's only going to get more accurate and make fewer mistakes as time goes on and he adjusts to the length, speed, and athleticism of NBA defenses...
     
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  17. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    because that's a gauge without context? for instance, he had a 33 point game....but he needed 31 shots to get that 33 point game

    * he has a PER of 9.2 when the NBA average is 15.0
    * he has a TS% of .483 when the NBA team median is .580
    * he has a eFG% of .427 when the NBA team median .542
    * he has a winshare/48 of -.044 when the NBA average is +.100
    * he has a BPM of -6.2 when the NBA mark for an average player on an average team is 0.0

    * his assist/turnover ratio is 1.60 which is terrible for an PG, and still poor for a rookie PG

    * out of 188 players tracked by bbref, Scoot ranks 186th in turnover rate; 188th in BPM; 188th in winshares/48; 184th in PER
    * out of 195 players tracked, Scoot ranks 195th in TS%
    * out of 562 NBA players tracked, Scoot ranks 562nd in VORP

    obviously, all those stats have missing context as well. They don't differentiate between C's, SF's, and PG's. They don't really gauge the quality of teams or teammates or rotations or factor injuries. They don't gauge by age or experience

    but statistically, Scoot has been terrible. That seems a fairly objective reality. A couple of 20 & 10 games don't change that

    I'm not saying there isn't hope for the guy as the PGOTF; eyeball gauges offer some hope. I am saying there's nothing hopeful found in his season stats this year
     
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  18. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    There are no players who put up 20 and 10 (of any stat) against NBA competition multiple times per season who are less than decent. Especially rookies.

    This is silly, IMO.
     
  19. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    fine...you're focusing on Scoot's best 3 games and gauging him on that 3 game sample. I was looking at aggregated numbers from all 52 of his games
     
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  20. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    The ability to repeat that performance means it's not a fluke. He has the ability. I'm simply taking umbrage with idea that he's not a decent player.

    I think that's pretty harsh criticism. He very clearly is a decent player. He's a threat to get 20 and 10. You don't say that about players who suck or don't belong in the NBA.

    He's a rookie PG with no college experience. You are supposed to look at his good games and forgive the mistakes and bad games. I'm not saying he's going to be a star (though he might). But he's at the very least a "decent" player.
     

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