Remote hope for me, is we get #1 and GS jumps to #4 and we get their pick next year in a MUCH better Draft.
There’s about a 13% chance that the Blazers get #1 a 1% chance the Warriors get #4. Any math wizards want to tell us the odds of both happening?
Yeah, that was going to be my guess. It's been a long time since my last probability and statistics class.
Probably close, if 13% and 1% are accurate, I'd assume those amounts are rounded. It would actually be a bit higher as if the Blazers are #1 then their ping pong balls would be removed and increase GS chance of #4 from 1% to 1.13% or such. I'd also probably quadruple the odds as GS at #3 or Blazers at #2 is a very similar outcome.
So if our picjs were Sarr and Risacher and the rest of our lineup and we still suck? That may call for Billups head. At worst we should be in the playin.
What I've seen of those two's tapes makes me think they've pretty high upside, but a ways to go before they'll be anything more then rotation players. Both need to mature physically and have their games evolve. If Portland is to improve their record drastically next season, there has to be big improvement from guys already on the roster. btw, without trading Shaedon or Scoot there isn't much of a possibility Portland has the first two picks in this next draft STOMP
I wonder about Isaiah Collier with GS's pick. Granted he did not have a consistent year, but he did break his hand halfway through the season, so that doesn't mean he won't still be the star that many projected him to be before last season. The combine measurements will be very important. Is he really 6'4 210 lbs? Can he eventually be as good as Scoot? Long term we would only want one of them, but if he is the BPA I am okay with taking him. One of them will have value in a trade in a year or two. Now if there is a player at another position who also has crazy potential, then take that person. I just don't want this to be another Telfair scenario.
I agree that BPA if Portland keeps 14. The Telfair debacle is just sickening. With the Portland pick, there are so many 6'3 players in the mix there that I just want nothing to do with. I am genuinely interested in everyone 6'6 and above except for Clingan. Sarr, Risacher, Buzellis, Williams and Holland all worth studying. Typically, somebody unexpected falls out of the lottery so 14 could see a good player there.
