Science Former CDC director predicts bird flu pandemic

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  1. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield said he predicts a bird flu pandemic will happen — it’s just a matter of when that will be.

    Redfield joined NewsNation on Friday to discuss the growing concern for bird flu, as the virus has been detected in dozens of cattle across the country, and the World Health Organization identified the first human death in Mexico.

    At the end of May, the CDC identified the third human case of someone diagnosed with the virus since March. None of the three cases among farmworkers were associated with one another. Symptoms have included a cough without fever and pink eye.

    There is no evidence yet that the virus is spreading between humans. Redfield said he knows exactly what has to happen for the virus to get to that point because he’s done lab research on it.

    Scientists have found that five amino acids must change in the key receptor in order for bird flu to gain a propensity to bind to a human receptor “and then be able to go human to human” like COVID-19 did, Redfield said.

    “Once the virus gains the ability to attach to the human receptor and then go human to human, that’s when you’re going to have the pandemic,” he said. “And as I said, I think it’s just a matter of time.”

    More than 40 cattle herds nationwide have confirmed cases of the virus. The CDC is tracking wastewater treatment sites to pinpoint where the virus is, but the agency said the general public’s current risk of contracting the virus is low.

    Since cattle live close to pigs and the virus is able to evolve from pigs to humans, there is cause for concern. Still, he argued, there is greater risk for the disease to be lab-grown.


    “I know exactly what amino acids I have to change because in 2012, against my recommendation, the scientists that did these experiments actually published them,” he said. “So, the recipe for how to make bird flu highly [infectious] for humans is already out there.”

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4723753-former-cdc-director-predicts-bird-flu-pandemic/
     
  2. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    CDC leadership[edit]
    [​IMG]
    Redfield speaks on the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020

    Redfield became the Director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on March 26, 2018.[15] He was appointed to the post by President Donald Trump, after the president's first appointee, Brenda Fitzgerald, resigned in scandal.[16] His appointment was considered controversial; he was publicly opposed by the Center for Science in the Public Interest and Patty Murray, the ranking Democrat on the Senate health committee, but supported by Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and some advocates for AIDS patients.[17][18][19][20] In his inaugural address to the CDC, Redfield called the agency "science-based and data-driven, and that's why CDC has the credibility around the world that it has".[15]

    COVID-19[edit]
    See also: COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

    On January 8, 2020, Redfield was advised by the head of China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention that SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) was probably contagious among humans. Redfield did not warn the public at that time.[21] The first confirmed case of COVID-19 was discovered in the U.S. on January 20, 2020,[22] while Redfield was serving as director of the CDC. Redfield was a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force from its start on January 29, 2020.[23]

    On February 13, 2020, Redfield said that the "virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission".[24] This contrasted with statements by President Trump, who, erroneously, told the public through most of February that the virus was under control.[25]

    During February 2020, the CDC's early coronavirus test malfunctioned nationwide. Redfield reassured his fellow task force officials that the problem would be quickly solved, according to White House officials.[26] It took about three weeks to sort out the failed test kits, which may have been contaminated during their processing in a CDC lab. Widespread COVID-19 testing in the United States was effectively stalled until February 28, when the faulty test was revised, and the days afterward, when the Food and Drug Administration began loosening rules that had restricted other labs from developing tests.[27] Later investigations by the Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Health and Human Services found that the CDC had violated its own protocols in developing the faulty test.[26][28]

    Redfield testified to Congress on March 2, 2020, about the outbreak of COVID-19 in the U.S. Given the lack of testing on patients and healthcare workers requesting testing, Florida Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz asked Redfield about who was responsible to ensure testing could be performed on individuals who needed to be tested. Redfield could not name a specific individual and looked to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of infectious disease at the NIH, who said, "The system is not geared to what we need right now... that is a failing."[29][30]

    On July 14, 2020, Redfield warned that the winter of 2020–2021 would probably be "one of the most difficult times that we've experienced in American public health".[31] He also said, "If we could get everybody to wear a mask right now, I really do think over the next four, six, eight weeks, we could bring this epidemic under control."[32] Trump, asked about Redfield's statements, said he opposed a mask law and said "masks cause problems too," but also said, "I think masks are good".[33]

    On July 23, the CDC called for reopening American schools, in a statement written by a working group at the White House that included Redfield but had minimal representation from other CDC officials.[34]

    Trump publicly contradicted Redfield on September 16, 2020, on the timeline for a COVID-19 vaccine and the effectiveness of masks compared with inoculation. Redfield told a Senate panel that a limited supply of a COVID-19 vaccine might be available in November or December, but that the general public would not be inoculated until the summer or fall of 2021.[35] Redfield also said that masks could be a more effective protection against COVID-19 than the vaccine. After Redfield's testimony, Trump told reporters, "I believe he was confused" and said a vaccine could be available in weeks and go "immediately" to the general public.[36][37]

    In September 2020, Redfield sought to extend a no-sail order on passenger cruise ships into 2021 to prevent the spread of COVID-19, but he was overruled by Vice President Mike Pence. The no-sail order was instead set to expire on October 31, 2020. Some of the severest early outbreaks of COVID-19 were on cruise ships.[38]

    In a March 26, 2021, Redfield said that in his opinion the most likely cause of the COVID-19 pandemic was a laboratory escape of SARS-CoV-2, which "doesn't imply any intentionality", and that as a virologist, he did not believe it made "biological sense" for the virus to be so "efficient in human to human transmission" from the early outbreak.[39]

    In the political reappraisal of the pandemic, Redfield was heard on March 8, 2023, during a congressional hearing regarding the origins of COVID-19. Redfield reaffirmed his conclusion that the pandemic was caused by a leak from a laboratory (lab leak hypothesis). This conclusion was based primarily on the biology of the virus itself, including its rapid high contagiousness in human-to-human transmission. He stated that the virus was too capable of spreading between humans to be the result of a natural animal-to-human spillover (zoonotic hypothesis).[40][41]

    Redfield stated that the biology of the virus, including its high infectivity in human-to-human transmission, suggests that it originated in a laboratory through gain-of-function research, in which scientists attempt to increase the transmissibility or pathogenicity. Redfield testified that gain-of-function research on high-risk viruses in Wuhan have been funded by National Institutes of Health, the State Department, USAID and the Department of Defense (DOD). The House of Representatives voted unanimously in favor of a bill mandating the release of information on the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.[42]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_R._Redfield
     
  3. crandc

    crandc Well-Known Member

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    Right wing idiots promote drinking raw milk. Somehow more manly. And since public health authorities recommend against it you can own the libs!

    Don't drink raw milk.
     
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  4. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening

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    The evolution of viruses and microorganisms, while completely fascinating, is absolutely terrifying.
     
  5. beast blazer

    beast blazer Well-Known Member

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  6. jonnyboy

    jonnyboy Well-Known Member

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    Raw milk is excellent for you.

    Drink raw milk.
     
  7. beast blazer

    beast blazer Well-Known Member

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  8. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    Pretty sure @crandc is actually educated in (like, has a degree) and possibly even works in biology...

    I'm gonna take her word for it unless there are some very good sources suggesting otherwise.
     
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  9. crandc

    crandc Well-Known Member

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    Retired now but yes and yes.
    Pasteurized milk us as nutritious as raw and safer. Provided you aren't lactose intolerant. And I use pasteurized milk to make yogurt since I can't drink it.
     
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  10. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    What, that liberal degree? Lies I tell you, all lies!
     
  11. Voodoo

    Voodoo An American hero

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    It’s the most manly to drink it right from the tap, nothing straighter and more masculine. Please go own the libs and go get it straight from the tap like a real man, and please post some pics to show us how hard you’re owning us libs.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. crandc

    crandc Well-Known Member

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    Works great, if you're a calf.
     
  13. beast blazer

    beast blazer Well-Known Member

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    Soy works great to...if you're a lefty.
     
  14. jonnyboy

    jonnyboy Well-Known Member

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    ^^^Imagine getting this aggressive over something as benign as milk preferences. And politicizing it even? The only “owning” going on is you embarrassing yourself by posting things like this.
     
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  15. jonnyboy

    jonnyboy Well-Known Member

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    Raw milk just contains so many more active enzymes, probiotics and vitamins that become inactive, or are completely destroyed after pasteurization. The absorption value and bioavailability of what’s actually remaining after pasteurization is also greatly decreased. The difference is so stark that pasteurized milk is essentially a completely different product than raw.
    Also, there have been a whopping 2 deaths linked to raw milk since 1972. And both instances were from homemade cheese that wasn’t made properly. There have been 82 deaths related to pasteurized milk products in the same time frame. The instances of food-borne outbreaks are infinitely greater in a factory farming setting.
    Most of the information pressing the dangers of raw milk is outdated. Alot of it was funded by corporate lobbies representing large factory farming operations and has yet to be updated.
     
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  16. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    Funny thing is, the raw milk deaths are probably still the higher fatality rate....
     
  17. jonnyboy

    jonnyboy Well-Known Member

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    You could list 100 other things we all consume everyday with higher fatality rates than 2 over 50 years. The raw milk boogeyman is a silly one. But if it’s scary to you, don’t drink it. Easy peasy. I just think the stigma around it is unfortunate provided it was created by a corporate lobby and it’s one of those outdated dogmas that have managed to hang around due to lack of information.
     
  18. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    I don't think @crandc is getting any kickbacks.

    "2 over 50 years" is incomplete. That's a very high ratio if only 3 people over 50 years had engaged in a given behavior. Without knowing the actual rate of consumption to compare, the "2 over 50" means nothing.
     
  19. jonnyboy

    jonnyboy Well-Known Member

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    Lol, what?
    You’re arguing just to argue, but here you go…

    Nearly 10 million people in the USA were consuming raw milk regularly as of 2007 [33], and the number of people consuming raw milk is likely to be higher now given the growing popularity of raw milk. An independent assessment of raw milk risks from 2000-2007, which excluded queso fresco-related illnesses and outbreaks, concluded that there was a "a roughly 1 in 94,000 chance of becoming ill from drinking unpasteurized milk during that period... During the 2000−2007 period, there were 12 hospitalizations for illnesses associated with raw fluid milk. That’s an average of 1.5 per year. With approximately 9.4 million people drinking raw milk, that means you have about a 1 in 6 million chance of being hospitalized from drinking raw milk" [34].

     
  20. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Listeria (the reason why we pasteurize milk and other foods) is found on average in 5% of raw milk samples in the US.

    The hospitalization rate for Listeria is 94%.

    Commonly pasteurized foods
    • eggs and egg products.
    • juice.
    • alcoholic and fermented beverages (beer, wine, cider, kombucha)
    • dairy products (milk, cheese, butter, ice cream, yogurt, cream)
    • frozen desserts.
    • imitation meats and deli meat.
    • nuts (almonds, peanuts)
    • flour and its products (bread, cereal, etc.)
     

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