Yep. This draft is all about projections. And frankly, I want us to swing as big as possible, even if they picks don't pan out -- that's Holland, to me.
Admitting it's pretty shitty of me to nitpick one thing in a post as long as yours, so nice work and really pretty good comps and analysis all the way through. But dude, you've got to lower Cody Williams' floor. His floor is more like "Alex the skinny dude who sets everyone up and does all the little things at the Y". With his frame and passivity, he's going to really have to bust his ass to not just get physically dominated every night. Maybe he's got the makeup to put on weight AND work through that punishment, but that development path is brutal, and sometimes physically impossible to keep good weight on. He scares me.
Thank you for this. It's great. The one thing I didn't notice you mention about Edey but I see some finally are starting to note is how good Edey is fundamentally as a screen setter. So much of the focus has been on Edey's deficiencies on the defensive end being too much for whatever offensive advantage he has to overcome. I think, however, he makes the four guys around him on offense better because he can get guys open with the dribble or without the ball. He'll create mismatches for teammates, not just for himself. I don't think fans recognize that enough. It's a $20 cab ride to get around his picks.
Yeah, I've come around on Edey quite a bit. What if he's actually just this good? He doesn't need to be the centerpiece of the offense to have an impact. The dude his huge and everything he's done in College should translate to the NBA because he's literally still gigantic. No player in the NBA can match his physical profile. Imagine getting open on EVERY screen. I do worry about his fit defensively, especially in the playoffs where teams can gameplan against you accordingly. But I don't think the Blazers need to worry about that, they need to worry about getting into the playoffs first. So I guess my conclusion is, he may not be a top level playoff performer, but he'll be extremely valuable in the regular season. That makes him valuable, especially in this draft.
Three of the last six NBA champions have played "drop" centers 29 minutes or more per game in the playoffs.
Great question. By this point, we've all read so many articles and listened to so many podcasts, that it is tough to keep straight what came from where. That being said, I think I tracked down at least some snippets from his high school coach (see cited section below) that speak to where some of this is coming from. Again, I think it can easily be attributed to youth, and he wouldn't be the first star player to have disdain for practice (I see you, AI), but it also may speak to the fact that the out-of-game grinding may not be innate. Again, I think there are different ways at looking at this issue, and we'll just have to see it play out. Givony has indicated that his shot has continued to look really bad throughout the workout season (both at his pro day, with several air balls apparently, and in team workouts); I suppose that's not a great sign when you've had several months now to do nothing but prepare for these "interviews." "Peavy knew Holland was talented enough to play on a loaded Duncanville team from the minute he enrolled in school. What he learned quickly is that he wasn’t mature enough to handle real minutes. “Ron probably got kicked out of practice more than anybody I’ve ever coached,” Peavy told SB Nation. “He loved working out, but he didn’t love practice.” “The monotony of doing shell drills, getting on the line running, you know, stuff that nobody likes,” Peavy said. “Ron wasn’t mature enough to understand, hey man, this is going to get you better. You just have to do it.” Duncanville always had so much talent on the roster that Peavy said he could teach Holland a lesson with playing time early in his career for his poor practice habits. The 2020 team in Holland’s freshman year was led by Micah Peavy, David’s son, who has enjoyed a productive four-year career for TCU. Zhuric Phelps was the team leader during his sophomore year before going on to a standout college career at SMU. Black transferred in as a junior, and Arizona forward K.J. Lewis joined as a senior. During Holland’s four years in high school, Duncanville went 119-8, with tons of banners to show for it. That doesn’t mean coaching Holland was always easy. “He would have one good day, then he would have two bad days at practice,” Peavy said. “By his sophomore year, he was having one good day, one bad day. Eventually I realized he could play through his mistakes, because talent-wise, we needed him.”
Yeah, I don't mean to say he's definitely a bust in the playoffs, that is just what I worry about mainly. Matchups will also determine whether he's playable or not. Dame or Curry may cook his pnr coverage, but some teams might not have the personnel to do that either. Regardless, I like Edey quite a bit. I also love that he's competitive as hell, a hard worker, and has gotten better literally EVERY year since he started playing basketball 6 years ago. That counts for something. I'd much rather bet on this guy than inconsistent andy who is making 30M a year whose effort wanes on a game to game basis.
Oh, no, I wasn't disagreeing with you. I was trying to make two points with that one comment. 1. There's a tendency to get so wrapped up in orthodoxy that we all sometimes miss the actual facts and trends. 2. It's not one-on-one. It's finding ways to make the assets override the liabilities in a team. Every team that's won a championship has had some area where they weren't as good as its opponent, something that could have been exploited. They either mitigated that liability or just were so much better in the ways in which they were superior and so effective in imposing their style that it didn't matter.
Interesting. Two things I want to see in a player are 1, has a motor and 2. always wants to get better. Maybe he thought those drills would not make him better and maybe he was correct. I don't know. If I was thinking about drafting him, I would certainly want to ask him about it. And I would certainly want to talk to his Ignite coaches.
Apparently, the Hawks GM Landry Fields came on local Atlanta radio and confirmed that Sarr declined to workout there. Not sure what is to be gained by airing this out to the public.
Intersting. Seems shortsighted. At least mainintaing some threat of drafting Sarr 1 could have allowed him to drop a few spots, pickup some assets, and still get his guy.
This guy ranks the 30 best players according to his personal opinion on their ten year careers, Ranks Knecht #1, then Sarr, Shepherd, Risacher, Carter and Clingan. Has Holland at 20 and Salaun at 21. "As we get going, I have to drop this context: This year's draft class is the most underwhelming (at least going into draft night) of any in the past 15 years that I've been covering the NBA Draft. Of course there will be good players that emerge from this class; maybe we wind up with one or two great ones. Maybe. But in spending the past couple of weeks burrowing into this group and talking to sources and evaluating what's waiting ... it's left a lot to be desired. It doesn't seem like this class is strong at the top, and I'm not seeing the kind of depth into the late teens and 20s that we usually get. Just a weird year." https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...rd-top-big-board-projecting-best-pro-careers/
Completely pulled that out of my ass haha. I am fairly convinced, though, that it'll be Clingan at 1.
I have such a hard time getting excited about Knecht. Sure, there are late bloomers, but he would be the outlier of outliers of late bloomers. That terrifies me. How anyone can look at his overall body of work and put him at 1, even in a weird year, is ballsy (or dumb, or both).
I’m guessing there’s a long list of players who had similar thoughts on doing boring drills and ended up being all stars at pro level. Definitely a yellow flag possibly red flag!
One can only hope we have some inroads to Sarr, but I don't think we have the capital to move up to 1 like the Spurs do.
Probably not,I was thinking something along the lines of brogdon, 7, maybe something else for 3, and then 3 and 14 for 1. Then grant for 13, sorry at 1, best wing at 13
