Plausible destinations for our vets?

It's behind a paywall, but I think that's ludicrous.

First - the offseason isn't over. We very well might still make a trade of Grant or Simons.

Second - we picked up Clingon and Avdija, which was lauded around the league on both accounts.

Who creates a list like that when it's still August?

 

I won't be very happy with Joe if we start the season with both Ant and Jerami but we all know that between the end of SL and the beginning of September is a big time lull in front office action around the league. I don't know what to expect from our front office but I think it's likely that they revisit trading Jerami to the Lakers and elsewhere between the beginning of next month and the beginning of training camp. I also think if they get the Jerami deal done that as Highkin reported (I think during SL) after they get Jerami moved they'll start really shopping Ant.

I still think that Joe saying in two different press conferences that we are now building around Scoot and Shaedon was his way of communicating that the players currently better than those two (Ant and Jerami) will be moved to clear the runway for the development of Scoot and Shaedon while simultaneously making it far easier to have a roster that plays as hard as it can day in and day out, without sitting guys and still have one of the best shots and Cooper Flagg or one of the other blue chippers in this draft.

At the same time I think every GM knows that Joe isn't going to give either Grant or Simons away and has no incentive to because he's obviously willing to sit them for lotto positioning. We're in a good place in the rebuild, I just hope Joe sticks to what he's said and leaves Jerami and Ant out of that rebuild.

 

I think Avdija will be a decent player with a broad skillset. He was decent last season but the context of being on a terrible team is notable. A lot of players have looked better than they are when wins didn't matter.

but yeah, if he is good then a 14th and 15th pick isn't too steep a price, even though that wasn't the only price paid.

 

He was better than decent. Players that complete are a rarity. If you think he's only decent, 2 picks and Brogdon would be an over play. I see him as a guy who has "solved" one of our forward positions going forward in the rebuild.

 

To me, 'decent' is a bit above average and that seems like what he was, last season at least

he had a PER of 14.9 when the NBA average is 15.0; a winshare/48 of .068 when the league average is .100; and a negative BPM. Now, he was on a terrible team so those numbers would be a little depressed, but the bad team factor can cut both ways

he's a very solid rebounder for his size and position, and has displayed some good potential as a passer and facilitator. He's appears to possess a well-rounded skillset and that's really nice to see after all of the flawed players Portland has auditioned over the last 8-9 years

I'm in the wait-and-see-if-he can-prove-it mode on his shooting because he made such dramatic improvements in one season. From 29% to 37% on three's; from 53% to 56% on two's; from about 53% to 58% in TS. His FT rate jumped from around .260 to .340. Those are all pretty substantial leaps. Maybe he adjusted to the NBA and just found his rhythm. I hope that's the case. But often players who do something like that regress to their norms rather than establishing new norms

 

The thing to notice about Avdija is how much better he was in the last 3 months of the year. If this is an anomaly or not is hard to tell, but he finished the year much better than an average NBA starter.

 

some good points, except I don't see anywhere that 15.0 is average for a starter rather than for all players. The 15.0 number remains a constant average for the league each season

how about solid all-around rather than decent?

 

one weird thing about PER is that apparently, the standard for 15.0 changes each year depending on all the players in the league

like all stats, it has it's pro's and con's. I think it does a 'decent' job of gauging players who average 30 minutes or more a season

the top-20 last season:

Nikola Jokić 31.0
Giannis Antetokounmpo 29.9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 29.3
Luka Dončić 28.1
Anthony Davis 25.8
LeBron James 23.7
Jalen Brunson 23.4
Tyrese Haliburton 23.3
Kawhi Leonard 23.2
Kristaps Porziņģis 23.2
Domantas Sabonis 23.2
Victor Wembanyama 23.1
Zion Williamson 22.8
Jayson Tatum 22.3
Donovan Mitchell 22.1
Jimmy Butler 22.0
Alperen Sengun 22.0
Devin Booker 21.9
Kyrie Irving 21.9
Jarrett Allen 21.8

I really don't see any outliers there, except that maybe Jarrett Aleen being ahead of Curry and Durant shows it's a stat a little skewed toward big men; most advanced stats are though

 

PER doesn't really credit a player for their defensive impact, which doesn't show up on the box score the same way offense does.

Like OG is considered to be a really good defender, his career per is 13.1. People consider Herb Jones to be one of the best wing defenders in the league. 12.6 career PER.

It's tilted towards players that score a lot. CJ for example, career per 17.5, all he really contributes is scoring. If you were building a team from scratch, what order would you take those 3 in?

 

yeah, I understand that a lot of metrics don't gauge defense well, PER being one of them.

IIRC, Ive only seen Avdja play a 3 or 4 times when the Blazers played his team. I'm skeptical of highlight videos. He played well as I remember. I'm not sure he's a lock-down defender like OG though. Of course, I'm not sure that OG is either

 

So is our opening night roster set or what?

 

Was our opening night roster set this time last year? Nothing happens between Summer League and the end of August but there are usually a handful of trades between the beginning of September and training camp.

 

I'd say yes.

Big fail on Cronin and the Blazers part, should have taken one good pick for Grant.

Could turn into a Timelord 2.0 situation but a 40 million boat anchor contract instead of 10 million.

 

Grant and Simons with young kids and families don't want to be moved days before camp starts. At this point the Blazers are standing pat.

Dame was different as he wanted out and would have been a sideshow with him at media day/camp.

 

Weren't you saying at the start of summer league all these GMs could meet face to face then we'd see a ton of trades?

What we got was crickets.

 

I am indifferent about that. I guess it depends on what you consider a good pick. Is any 1st a "good pick"?
Are we talking about a future Laker pick? If we are going to help the Lakers I prefer we ask for more.

 

Sorry. I don't care much about what Grant and Simons want right now. We need max draft capital (or equivalent young talent) in return for those guys ASAP or we're most likely going to be another treadmill team hoping to get back to the Dame glory days before having to tear it down again.

 

considering what the 2nd apron issue was going to force the Lakers to part with, I don't believe Grant would have helped

Russell+Hachimura combined for 9.2 winshares last season; Grant had 2.7 winshares last year and his average has been 3.4

personally, I question if trade talks ever got serious, especially if Cronin was asking for any unprotected 1st round pick, or more than one. I believe the Lakers would have told Cronin to pound sand because they can do the math too. They'd have been justified in hanging up the phone