<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Who is the best receiving tight end in the NFL? The prevailing wisdom is that either Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez deserves the distinction, but the metrics I compiled from the 2005 season for Scientific Football 2006 (available for preorder at www.TheFootballScientist.com) tell a different story.I use three metrics to measure the pass-catching ability of a tight end (40 receptions to qualify). The first two are TYPCA (total yards per catchable attempt) and success percentage. The third metric is derived by multiplying TYPCA by the success percentage. This last metric combination provides the best overall balance between production and consistency and is the metric I used to identify the best receiving tight end.For much of the 2005 season, Gates would have been the easy answer to this question. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Gates averaged 9.3 TYPCA and posted a 74 percent success rate, which translated to a league-leading number.However, Gates' numbers took a nosedive after he injured his leg in Week 11 against Buffalo. In the final six weeks of the season, he averaged only 4.5 TYPCA and had a 48.1 percent success rate. The drop in production caused Gates to drop to third in the league in TYPCA, 11th in success percentage and seventh in the combined metric.Gonzalez was forced to block more often last year because of the Chiefs' offensive line injuries, but he was still a vertical passing threat. He ranked first among tight ends in medium pass attempts and fourth in deep pass attempts. He also ranked first in defensive penalty yards drawn and had the second-lowest dropped pass percentage among tight ends. Despite all these excellent numbers, Gonzalez still ranked only fifth among tight ends in TYPCA and sixth in the combination metric.Jeremy Shockey is another name that might come to mind. Shockey did rank third among tight ends in catchable attempts, fourth in successful plays and second in total yards. Unfortunately, he posted a 61 percent success rate, next to last among qualifying tight ends. He does well when he catches a pass, but having inaccurate Eli Manning as your quarterback almost assures your success percentage will be low.The emerging Chris Cooley frequently is used as an H-back, meaning he lines up in the backfield or as a wingback on the line of scrimmage. This might seem to be a handicap, but the Redskins use this positional flexibility to help get Cooley open, as evidenced by his ranking fourth in success percentage. He wasn't just a check-down target, either, as his 8.3 TYPCA was the fourth best in the league.The big surprise in these rankings was Jerramy Stevens. Stevens is Seattle's very talented, but maddeningly inconsistent tight end. Most analysts, myself included, tend to focus on the many plays Stevens takes off in a game. However, the metrics show Stevens is one of the best tight ends in the NFL.Stevens ranked first among tight ends with an 8.9 TYPCA. He tied for second in medium pass success percentage and was third in medium pass TYPCA. His overall success percentage was buoyed in part by the fact that he was thrown only two deep passes all year long, but he did catch both. His combined metric number of 6.5 yards was the second best among tight ends.The best receiving tight end in the NFL in 2005 was Jason Witten. The offensive line injuries in Dallas didn't stop him from ranking second in the total TYPCA category and fifth in success percentage. He also had the lowest overall dropped pass percentage of any tight end.Witten didn't rack up these numbers strictly on short passes. Witten was excellent at medium passes, ranking second in medium TYPCA and second in medium success percentage. He wasn't the best deep threat, but managed to rank fifth in deep success percentage.I expect Gates to bounce back from his injuries to reclaim the throne as the best pass-catching tight end in 2006, but until then, he'll have to take a backseat to Witten.Here are the top five in each category:Yards Per Attempt1. Jerramy Stevens -- 8.92. Jason Witten -- 8.73. Antonio Gates -- 8.44. Chris Cooley -- 8.35. Tony Gonzalez -- 8.2Success %1. Jermaine Wiggins -- 80.5%2. Alex Smith -- 77.8%3. Erron Kinney -- 77.8%4. Chris Cooley -- 77.2%5. Jason Witten -- 77.0%Success % x Yards Per Attempt1. Jason Witten -- 6.72. Jerramy Stevens -- 6.53. Chris Cooley -- 6.44. Todd Heap -- 5.95. Erron Kinney -- 5.8</div>
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (xpostxscript @ Jun 29 2006, 06:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I thought you were gonna be gone until late August </div>Early August, and it's my night to check people in and out of camp, thus I have controll of the office for tonight. So I'm trying to catch up on email, Sports news, etc, etc.
How exactly is Total Yards Per Attempt and Success Rate any indication at all of who is the best Tight End?If the Tight End (Jeremy Shockey, Alge Crumpler) has a QB that is not known for a high completion percentage that would surely effect his Success Rate. If the Tight End (Tony Gonzalez) is known for being as impressive a blocker as he is a reciever, thats not reflected in the stats, even though that is argueably half of a Tight End's job. If the Tight End (Antonio Gates, Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez) is constantly being double teamed, thats not reflected in the stats, but would surely effect the amount of long receptions the player has effecting his Yards Per Attempt. If the Tight End (Jerramy Stevens) is completely non-existant for an entire half of the game, and only has 2 receptions on 2 passes for good yardage under this formula he is one of the best Tight Ends in the league? Yeah, right.The article even shows stats that before Antonio Gates got hurt, he was the most dominant Tight End in the league following this formula, so even if you were going to credit Witten with it it should belong with an asterisk.The entire article is garbage because of the formula sucking.Jason Witten is good, but lets not go around spreading lies like hes the best Tight End in the league.
I don't care what kind of formula the guys at ESPN come up with. There is no way in hell Jason Witten is the best TE in the NFL. Antonio Gates is hands down the BestTE in the NFL. It's hard to argue with his stats.
Gates is not the best TE in the NFL by any means, unless we are talking about receiving TEs. You can't call a guy the best TE who can't even block. The best TE would be well rounded, and Gates is primarily a pass catcher.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Johnny White Guy @ Jun 30 2006, 09:58 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Gates is not the best TE in the NFL by any means, unless we are talking about receiving TEs. You can't call a guy the best TE who can't even block. The best TE would be well rounded, and Gates is primarily a pass catcher.</div>When I think of TE, I don't mean by blocking means, I meant clearly receiving. Gates can block, he just isn't great at it. You gotta think, the dude played basketball at Kent State his college years, he went from mopping up boards to blocking 250+ pound Linemen?
Yeah, for real. Jason Witten will never be in Antonio Gates' league because he just isn't the best and he'll never be. Antonio Gates is definately the best tight end in the league today rather you like it or not. ESPN is always a bunch of garbage, that's why i never listen to their stupid garbage, hell they doubted against us in the Super Bowl and that we wouldn't make the playoffs and look how stupid they are for us proving them wrong.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (xpostxscript @ Jun 30 2006, 01:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>ESPN is always a bunch of garbage, that's why i never listen to their stupid garbage</div>If you're going to watch ESPN for football right now, you gotta know that it is either predictions or news. Since the season is close they want to fill the fans in on what THEY think, they know we will listen because that channel ALWAYS has something sports related on it.In reality you have to let the GAME speak for ITSELF, even they know that.
I can think of 4 TE's off the top of my head that ARE better than WittenGatesHeapGonzoShockley (sp?)Even Miller from pitt is better.
