I'll start by debunking the big 3.Shaun Alexander.Shaun Alexander ran a literal 40.3% of his runs behind 1 lineman. Steve Hutchinson. Losing him is a bigger deal than it's been made out to be. Running more than 40% behind 1 man shows just who his good lead block is and was. Walter Jones may be a great LT, but pass blocking is his specialty, and there is a reason he ran over Jones less than half the time he ran over Hutch. Porkchop Womack is an average starter as his replacement with slow feet and the lack of a second-level athletic ability (meaning no LB's will be blocked by him, just the DL).Alexander is also 29, the year RB's in the NFL traditionally start their decline. 29 is generally a down year, and at 30 or 31 is usually the big drop off. His age IS a factor. Like Curtis Martin's and Corey Dillon's was last year when they were drafted top 10 and proved to be fantasy busts. And then there are the curses. The first is the Madden Curse. Players on the Madden cover usually end up injured or put up horrible seasons. The next is the "Superbowl Hangover" curse. Teams that lose the Superbowl usually miss the playoffs and put up a poor effort all around fantasy wise. While these may just be superstition, they are superstitions that prove accurate more often than not.Larry JohnsonThe average age of Larry's O-line? 32.6 years of age. Not that big a deal when your two best O-linemen are 36 and 35? Well look at the backups. A combined 7 starts between them. 3 late round draft picks (5th, 6th, and 7th) and a 30 year old with very little experience. If someone goes down, there is no one to step up. And at their age, someone will go down.Larry Johnson lost his fullback. His fullback that is top 5 in the NFL at run blocking. He left to follow SA's favorite blocker to Minnesota. So Larry's favorite blocker has abandoned ship, and left LJ with a 2nd year pro who has never started a game before. Sounds like it should be a good time in Kansas City... for blitzing LB's.Dick and Al are gone, Herm is in. Herm is a completely different type of coach than Dick and Al were. Al Saunders, the brilliant man behind KC's running style was in love with the slash and dash style. Lots of flare and lots of forward production were involved in his game. Now turn to Herm. His run style is the grind. He doesn't slash, he sends his RB's up the middle, up the middle, up the middle, outside once, then up the middle. He is the only coach I've ever seen call the same play 3 times in a row, in the center of the field, all 3 being a run up the middle for a negative yard loss. He ran Curtis Martin into the ground, and he'll grind LJ down as well. LJ has young legs and should hold up to the beating, but he won't be slashing he'll be grinding.Larry's amazing finish last year is over hyped. While he generally did it against good rushing defenses (though a 200+ yard burst against the amazing Houston Texans helps), he did it in the 2nd half of the year. Essentially he rushed just enough during the first half of the year to stay in game shape, while the defenses he had been rushing against had been worn down over the course of the season. It's the fact of the matter in the NFL that everyone wears down as the season progresses.... everyone who plays. That's why you see the backups come out (like Gado, Taylor, Jones, etc) and perform way above expectations every single year. The starting RB's get worn down but it's ok because the starting defenses get worn down. Larry was fresh as though his season had just started, whereas the defenses he faced were worn out from the season. This year he'll have to take the load from day 1.Ladainian TomlinsonPhilip Rivers who? Yeah, he was a high draft pick but he's still never made a start in his life. And for everyone hoping he'll be Drew Brees part II, the QB coach that made Brees something other than a bust has moved out to New York. So until and unless he proves himself, Tomlinson will be facing 8 in the box from the first snap to the last snap.The fact that the Chargers added 0 offensive weapons only exacerbates things. The Chargers have no deep threats. The sole talented WR got a year older and a year slower. Gates is a talented pass catcher, but he's not going to be catching 30 yard passes down the field too often. Eric Parker and Rashaun Woods are hardly studs.The O-line was massively improved.... oh wait, never mind. All they added to the bottom-of-the-barrel O-line was a 2nd round draft pick with spinal-cord issues. Good call! And last but not least he finished the regular season (fantasy playoffs) against nothing but tough run defenses. Who do you want your fantasy starters to be playing against when you are trying to win the Championship? The cupcakes or the hard asses? Exactly.So now we move on to....Clinton PortsPortis rushed for 1500 yards again last season, something he's done 3 out of his 4 seasons in the league. And the season he didn't rush for 1500? He rushed for a mere 1300. He'll get you the yards you need year in and year out. Averaging 1581 yards per 16 games.Every member of Clinton's starting O-line has returned. With an average age of 28.8 and the oldest lineman being 30, this line is not only one of the best in the league but also in the prime of their careers. The Redskins added two WR's that can move the ball down field in a hurry. Antwaan Randel El and Brandon Lloyd. Randel El is not only a solid WR, but is also an amazing return man that will split the load with Santana Moss and give the Redskins even better field position to start with (especially considering the defense is improved as well). The best thing about the addition of these weapons for Portis? Neither are legitimate Red-Zone threats. The Redskins will be down next to the end zone a lot more this year, but still remain with only 2 Red-Zone threats. Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley.The Redskins have a new Offensive Coordinator. Al Saunders. You know, that guy who made the Kansas City offense run so well? The mastermind behind the slashing runs of Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. Yeah, he'll be calling the shots for Clinton Portis this season... with a good line, a good FB, and better WR's.Last but not least, Portis is 25 this season, the prime of his career.
Good points on Portis, and I do agree with what you say about Alexander and LJ, but I still think that LT is the best back in fantasy football this year. His offensive line is extremely talented; injuries caused them to fall off a bit last year. If it was a big problem, then they WOULD have gone out and addressed it this off-season. LT was the best player in football when the Chargers were winning four games a season, and that was without Gates and McCardell. Rivers is unproven but when LT established himself it was when Drew Brees was the worst starting quarterback in football, and I expect Rivers to be better than that. I don't think the "lack" of weapons around him will hurt LT because he's so versitile, but they have arguably the best TE in the game and a solid pass catcher in McCardell, which is much better than what they were putting on the field a few years back when LT started to tear up defenses.I don't buy into the whole "he's got a million weapons around him, he's going to get NO attention" theory. When you've got all of those passing options, they are GOING to get the ball. Sure Portis won't get as much attention as usual, but it's not going to be to the point where he can just run wild. With homerun threats like Randle El and Moss on the field for Washington, the amount of times we see Brunell or whoever's under center for them throw a deep bomb to one of those guys will outweight the amount of times we see Portis break off a 40+ yard run. Cooley should get a lot of short passes his way, and Sellers saw a lot of carries on the goalline last year. Lloyd's great hands should also see him getting some action in the red zone. Al Saunders also has made it a point to get Ladell Betts on the field as MUCH as possible because he seemingly likes him a lot, so Portis won't even be getting all of the carries. With Tomlinson, you don't have either of those problems. Not too many weapons where you have to hope he'll get the ball in big situations, and no backup who's going to see the field and cut into his production. He's still the best back in fantasy football, although you argue a good case for Portis.
1) In your entire long-ass post you didnt mention Recieving Yards once in the entire post. Clinton Portis - 216-364 yds, 0-2 TD'sLaDianian Tomlinson - 367-725 yds, 0-4 TD'sEven if Portis's rushing numbers rival LT's in Rushing this season, he will blow him out of the water in Recieveing Yards....especially with a Young QB who will probably do a ton of dumpoff passes. 2) Tomlinson finishes this season in Fantasy @ Kansas City, Seattle, @ ArizonaThey arent exactly the creme of the crop when it comes to run-stuffers. Kansas City cannot tackle, Seattle will probably be playing backups after clinching the division by Week 14 and Home-Field by Week 15, and Arizona well.....is Arizona....and if you dont think Seattle will have home-field, look at their schedule, they play the NFC North 4 times and Arizona, St. Louis, San Francisco another 6 times, whereas the NFC East and South teams will be busy beating up each other with 6 divisional games and 4 against the other division.3) Martin was 32 last season and Corey Dillon was 30. When they were 29 like Alexander...Dillon ran for 1635 yds, 12 TD (181 yds, 1 TD rec)Martin ran for 1094 yds, 7 TD (362 yds rec) despite getting injured Week 1 and playing the entire season injured (And Ran for almost 1600 yards at the age of 31)
Al Saunders likes to pass to RB's a lot more than Gibbs.In Portis's rookie year, he rushed for over 1500 yards with a league best 5.5 YPC. In his second year, once again, he ran for 1500 yards with a league best 5.5 YPC and like 15 TD's. Why didn't he put up those kind of numbers in Washington? Because Gibbs likes to slow the offense down and eat the clock. Portis weighed 195lbs in Denver where he was in a cutback/speed system. Gibbs made him put on nearly 40 pounds... Portis weighed 230 last year. Gibbs likes the good old power systems. Portis struggled in his first yearm then he did really good in his second year in DC... but still not amazing. Well now Portis got Al Saunder, and offensive genius... leading Kansas City to the best offense for years. The Redskins and Chiefs have similar players, with better WR's and a younger line. Saunders loves screens, trick plays, and most importantly cutbacks/counters for speedsters. Expect Portis to lead the league in rushing. That is all.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (The Punisher @ Jul 19 2006, 11:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Al Saunders likes to pass to RB's a lot more than Gibbs.In Portis's rookie year, he rushed for over 1500 yards with a league best 5.5 YPC. In his second year, once again, he ran for 1500 yards with a league best 5.5 YPC and like 15 TD's. Why didn't he put up those kind of numbers in Washington? Because Gibbs likes to slow the offense down and eat the clock. Portis weighed 195lbs in Denver where he was in a cutback/speed system. Gibbs made him put on nearly 40 pounds... Portis weighed 230 last year. Gibbs likes the good old power systems. Portis struggled in his first yearm then he did really good in his second year in DC... but still not amazing. Well now Portis got Al Saunder, and offensive genius... leading Kansas City to the best offense for years. The Redskins and Chiefs have similar players, with better WR's and a younger line. Saunders loves screens, trick plays, and most importantly cutbacks/counters for speedsters. Expect Portis to lead the league in rushing. That is all.</div>Off-topic- The State Washington is spelled wrong in your Sig.And its not Gibbs who slowed down Portis' production. It was the magnificent Broncos O-line who upped his capabilities.
I've never seen a rookie RB run for 1,500 yards with a 5.5YPC and 17 TDs before... Redskins have a great o-line, but a totally different system.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (The Punisher @ Jul 20 2006, 07:56 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I've never seen a rookie RB run for 1,500 yards with a 5.5YPC and 17 TDs before... Redskins have a great o-line, but a totally different system.</div>So you just basically contradicted yourself. Maybe I misunderstood, but you said you've never seen a rookie RB put up the numbers Portis did, and then you're saying about how much the Denver system helped?
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (The Punisher @ Jul 20 2006, 01:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>No, I'm saying Gibbs made him look bad his first year in Washington.</div>Not that he even looked BAD or anything like that (but he was held back from showing his full potential...)
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AdropOFvenom @ Jul 19 2006, 01:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>1) In your entire long-ass post you didnt mention Recieving Yards once in the entire post. Clinton Portis - 216-364 yds, 0-2 TD'sLaDianian Tomlinson - 367-725 yds, 0-4 TD'sEven if Portis's rushing numbers rival LT's in Rushing this season, he will blow him out of the water in Recieveing Yards....especially with a Young QB who will probably do a ton of dumpoff passes.</div>While I didn't mention recieving yards, you seriously doubt that Al Saunders will get Portis the ball through the air more than Gibbs? Lol.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>2) Tomlinson finishes this season in Fantasy @ Kansas City, Seattle, @ ArizonaThey arent exactly the creme of the crop when it comes to run-stuffers. Kansas City cannot tackle, Seattle will probably be playing backups after clinching the division by Week 14 and Home-Field by Week 15, and Arizona well.....is Arizona....and if you dont think Seattle will have home-field, look at their schedule, they play the NFC North 4 times and Arizona, St. Louis, San Francisco another 6 times, whereas the NFC East and South teams will be busy beating up each other with 6 divisional games and 4 against the other division.</div>They finish against Denver, KC, Seattle, and Arizona. That's the 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 10th best run D's from last year. Their final 4 games are all against top 10 run D's. Are you fucking retarded?! They ARE the cream of the crop of run stuffers!<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>3) Martin was 32 last season and Corey Dillon was 30. When they were 29 like Alexander...Dillon ran for 1635 yds, 12 TD (181 yds, 1 TD rec)Martin ran for 1094 yds, 7 TD (362 yds rec) despite getting injured Week 1 and playing the entire season injured (And Ran for almost 1600 yards at the age of 31)</div>Sounds like a solid bet. You could be spending your 1st round pick on just over 1000 yards and under 10 TD's, or 1600 yards and 12 TD's.
Anyone else where Larry Johnson's lead blocker and Shaun Alexander's favorite Run Blocking lineman went? To block for Chester Taylor in Minnesota.Just a thought.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (The Punisher @ Jul 20 2006, 10:03 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>No, I'm saying Gibbs made him look bad his first year in Washington.</div>You know your back is something when a bad year is 1300+ yards.
Haha he almost broke the Redskins franchise record when he get about 1300 yards... and I think he did really bad that year (for him that's bad).
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Jul 20 2006, 04:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>3) Martin was 32 last season and Corey Dillon was 30. When they were 29 like Alexander...Dillon ran for 1635 yds, 12 TD (181 yds, 1 TD rec)Martin ran for 1094 yds, 7 TD (362 yds rec) despite getting injured Week 1 and playing the entire season injured (And Ran for almost 1600 yards at the age of 31)</div>Sounds like a solid bet. You could be spending your 1st round pick on just over 1000 yards and under 10 TD's, or 1600 yards and 12 TD's.</div>Big difference though in that Martin's lack of production was due to an injury and not old age.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>They finish against Denver, KC, Seattle, and Arizona. That's the 2nd, 5th, 7th, and 10th best run D's from last year. Their final 4 games are all against top 10 run D's. Are you fucking retarded?! They ARE the cream of the crop of run stuffers!</div>Yet in terms of total defense they ranked 8th, 15th, 17th, and 25th. The only reason half of them ranked in the top 10 in Run Defense was because it was so damn easy for most teams to pass the ball on them. A Rushing team like the Chargers will be running the ball on them early and often.And Lets Just look at Tomlinson against the 'NFL's Elite' last season.Week 2 Denver - 19 Car, 52 yds, 2 TD - 17 PointsWeek 4 New England - 25 Car, 134 yds, 2 TD, 3 rec, 34 yds - 28 PointsWeek 5 Pittsburgh - 18 Car, 62 yds, TD, 7 rec, 68 yds - 18 PointsWeek 8 Kansas City - 17 Car, 69 yds, 3 rec, 23 yds - 8 PointsWeek 16 Kansas City - 14 Car, 47 yds, 3 rec, 18 yds - 5 PointsWeek 17 Denver - 19 Car, 92 yds, TD - 15 PointsThe only team in there that really gave him trouble last season was Kansas City. But considering it is a different team right now then it was last season, its no guarantee that that wont change, and we both know how bad Herman Edwards teams have been at stopping the run the past 5 years. And lets face it, their defense is still well below average, as shown by their 25th overall ranking and no significant additions except a couple draft picks who likely wont even see the field in 2006.
Don't forget the Chiefs had an insane amount of injuries on defense...But until Rivers proves himself to the NFL that he CAN pass the ball and lead the team, teams will be stopping LT and the Chargers.
[quote name='AdropOFvenom' post='59335' date='Jul 21 2006, 08:08 AM'][quote name='Jon_Vilma' post='59261' date='Jul 20 2006, 04:53 PM'] Sounds like a solid bet. You could be spending your 1st round pick on just over 1000 yards and under 10 TD's, or 1600 yards and 12 TD's.[/quote]Big difference though in that Martin's lack of production was due to an injury and not old age. Yet in terms of total defense they ranked 8th, 15th, 17th, and 25th. The only reason half of them ranked in the top 10 in Run Defense was because it was so damn easy for most teams to pass the ball on them. A Rushing team like the Chargers will be running the ball on them early and often.And Lets Just look at Tomlinson against the 'NFL's Elite' last season.Week 2 Denver - 19 Car, 52 yds, 2 TD - 17 PointsWeek 4 New England - 25 Car, 134 yds, 2 TD, 3 rec, 34 yds - 28 PointsWeek 5 Pittsburgh - 18 Car, 62 yds, TD, 7 rec, 68 yds - 18 PointsWeek 8 Kansas City - 17 Car, 69 yds, 3 rec, 23 yds - 8 PointsWeek 16 Kansas City - 14 Car, 47 yds, 3 rec, 18 yds - 5 PointsWeek 17 Denver - 19 Car, 92 yds, TD - 15 PointsThe only team in there that really gave him trouble last season was Kansas City. But considering it is a different team right now then it was last season, its no guarantee that that wont change, and we both know how bad Herman Edwards teams have been at stopping the run the past 5 years. And lets face it, their defense is still well below average, as shown by their 25th overall ranking and no significant additions except a couple draft picks who likely wont even see the field in 2006.[/quote]Herm has twice had a top 10 rush D in the past 5 years. He's not the best with his run D, but he's no joke either. Not what you want to make him out to be.And your stats? All you showed me is that out of 6 tries vs top run defenses he was only once able to crack 100 yards. Great job Tomlinson!
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Jul 21 2006, 09:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>And your stats? All you showed me is that out of 6 tries vs top run defenses he was only once able to crack 100 yards. Great job Tomlinson!</div>100 yards is meaningless if he can put up 36 Points From Touchdowns and 13 Points from Recieveing Yards.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AdropOFvenom @ Jul 21 2006, 10:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Jul 21 2006, 09:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>And your stats? All you showed me is that out of 6 tries vs top run defenses he was only once able to crack 100 yards. Great job Tomlinson!</div>100 yards is meaningless if he can put up 36 Points From Touchdowns and 13 Points from Recieveing Yards.</div>I don't know what point system you use... but anyhow, he won't be getting the TD's this year, if Rivers can't get him near the end zone. 60 yards rushing won't get him 3 TD's.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Jul 21 2006, 09:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AdropOFvenom @ Jul 21 2006, 10:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Jul 21 2006, 09:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>And your stats? All you showed me is that out of 6 tries vs top run defenses he was only once able to crack 100 yards. Great job Tomlinson!</div>100 yards is meaningless if he can put up 36 Points From Touchdowns and 13 Points from Recieveing Yards.</div>I don't know what point system you use... but anyhow, he won't be getting the TD's this year, if Rivers can't get him near the end zone. 60 yards rushing won't get him 3 TD's.</div>10 Yards = 1 Point1 TD = 6 PointsThe normal system. lolAnd whos to say that Brunell will even be starting in Washington? Jason Campbell may very well take the job from him and you have the same problem with a First Year QB there.
Except for the fact that Campbell is a lot better than Rivers... According to Gibbs, he's the best QB he's ever coached... and Gibbs won 3 super bowls with 3 different QB's.
