I haven't billed him as the next superstar. I don't see it. What I do see, as I said, is a potential elite role player; a perennial DPOY candidate with a turbo mode who is deadly in the paint and again, I think you're really exaggerating how bad 70% FT shooting is. Giannis has had 6 seasons when he shot under 70%; Draymond's career mark is under 71%. There are only 11 players that average 6 FTA/game or more, and all of those guys are high usage #1 options. And there are only 12 other players who average more than 5 FT's. And again, those 12 are all primary scorers on their teams like Maxey, Fox, Lamelo, and Jaylen Brown. That is unlikely to be the role Amen fills so say his ceiling is around 5 FTA's/game. At 70% he'd average 3.5 points. The league average is 78% and that would yield 3.9 points. That would be the ceiling; 1 less pont every 2.5 games. Somehow, I'm failing to see that as the major flaw in his game that you do. He's also only a year older than Scoot so if Scoot has room for improvement because of youth, Amen has about the same room
Well, that's not the kind of player that I'm going to lose sleep over. Hell, that could be Clingan or Camara. I just don't see how anyone can compare him to a guy who's 7 feet tall with a 7'3 wingspan and an absolutely insane monster in the paint. He's not Giannis (unless he gets some kind of crazy growth spurt.) Draymond kinda sucks in a lot of ways. Sure he was a great role player, but if he had been on a team other than the warriors, I'm really not sure if he would have stuck in the league. He was in the absolute best situation to bring out his skills and showcase his ability as a glue guy. There was another dude who fit almost that exact description and he was sort of unceremoniously kicked out of the league.... Lance Stephenson. But it feels like you and I are having two different debates. I'm saying that his shooting (three point and free throws) will hold him back. It seems like you're essentially agreeing with me because you're saying he's going to be an elite role player.
understand that I think at least one elite role player is essential for a contender. Think Scottie Pippen here are Pippen's FT% over his first 7 seasons: .576 .668 .675 .706 .760 .663 .660 and his 3ptFG%: .174 .273 .250 .309 .200 .237 .320 obviously it was a different era, but that's not good shooting. Now Pippen was a playmaker who had the ball in his hands a lot and had 5 straight seasons averaging over 7 assists. Amen won't get that open runway to ball dominance playing with VanVleet, Green, and Sengun Sorry, but I'm dismissing your FT argument. Could be, in this version of the NBA, Amen's lack of a three-ball will make a lower ceiling than a player like him would have had 20 years ago. It is refreshing though to see a player generate major impact without chucking up a half dozen three's a game
I was thinking about Pippen too and I think that's the best case scenario for Amen. Pretty good best case scenario but Pippen became a really decent three point shooter.
Pippen was also somewhat like Kersey, with both developing reliable midrange shots. Looking at 3pt shooting in that era is pretty pointless, as only select players refined that skill enough for the percentages to look good by today's standard.
Pippen did become decent at three's; but it didn't start happening till his 7th season when he was 28. In his first 6 seasons, he only averaged around 1.0 three point attempts a game. He only had 450 total attempts in those 6 years. it was when he stated bumping up his attempts that his % started improving. His attempts/game went from 1.0-->1.1-->2.7-->4.0-->5.2 at the same time his conversion rate went from .200-->.237-->.320-->.345-->.374 that might be the track Amen takes. He might always be a shitty three point shooter who rarely makes the attempt. Or, he might have the drive and BBIQ to keep working at his game and improve in both three's and FT's. At this point, it sure looks like he has drive and BBIQ in fact, the rest of the NBA knowing he can't shoot the three and rarely tries means the defense is consistently backing off of him, daring him to shoot the long ball, and trying to deny the paint and rim. But he still manages to take over 80% of his shots in the paint with a near elite conversion rate. Drive/BBIQ I did mention the different era factor but shooting mechanics haven't changed, just the distances shot and repetition. Pippen spent 10 years, 4 in the NCAA and 6 in the NBA, before there was any improvement in his 3-ball (he spent 15 years before his FT% improved). It takes time and that repetition. In those 10 years, Pippen played 653 games. Amen has played 105. something else about the different era factor: when Pippen played when three's weren't as emphasized as they are today. Meaning that FT's had a bigger impact. And Pippen's career FT% was a shade over 70%. Still, even with that 'handicap' Pippen was named all-NBA 7 times; all NBA defense 10 times (8 times first team), and 7 all-star games. The first of those awards came in his 4th season all that said, I don't expect Amen to reach the level of Pippen
2023-24 game summary: - Good: 15% - Neutral: 53% - Bad: 32% 2024-25 game summary: - Good: 20% - Neutral: 48% - Bad: 33% Past 15 games summary: - Good: 33% - Neutral: 34% - Bad: 33% Steady progress.
Midrange shooting is the key point I was making. That's what wing players primarily worked on developing back then, and is why Pipped could be such an effective player despite 3pt shooting. That's what relates to Amen and having more ground to make up as far as avoiding the hack-a-Shaq treatment.
if mid-range is defined exclusively as the 16'>3p zone, then sure. Pippen was better then than Amen is now. But for the 16'>rim zone, Amen is better. Amen only takes 5% of his shots in that 16'>3p zone. And clearly, the changes in the NBA from Pippen's days till now have devalued that longer mid-range game a ton by the way, Amen is now up to 71% FT shooting on the season, and 73% in January
Either way, it is ridiculous to think that an extra 4 minutes per game is going to make a huge difference in his development. One might argue that Chauncey is actually smarter about the PG position than any of us, and he is bringing Scoot along the right way.
Then why all the talk about Scoot being a bust? Why does he play so well when he's given a bigger role? It's never been as much about the minutes as it has been about his role. Scoot's development has absolutely been slowed by this insanity. As has Sharpe's.
What do you mean 4mpg? Scoot started 5 games leading the Blazers to wins playing great passing, scoring, and defending while averaging 35mpg. Then Scoot got benched and played 14 minutes. That's a 21 minute reduction.
Some say Scoot is a bust and doesn't deserve more minutes, others say Scoot is a bust because he doesn't get enough minutes to develop. I think both of these theories are ridiculous because he has never been a bust. He has been 19. Not a fan of giving someone the reigns just because he was a high draft pick. Screw that. If they want to start, then they can earn it. Scoot has improved very quickly IMO. You have to give the coaches some credit for that.
