Ehhh tonight we played a really good but they sat 3 of their 4 best players and a couple of other rotation guys and we still lost. That wasn't a very good team we lost to tonight, guys that are used to winning, sure but not a good team.
they are 10th now; probably the best they could do with an 18 game tank is 9th but Cronin & Chauncey decided to tilt at the 10th seed windmill and went all-in including no action at the trade deadline. To pivot to a tank now would be admitting how foolish they all were setting the 10th seed as the highest priority. They won't admit to that mistake in such a blatant fashion so, they'll continue to try and win games right to the bitter end. I think they have a much better chance at 12th seed than 9th seed.
Yeah they won’t tank at this point. They will try to make the playin. Possible because now everyone is either tanking or resting players. I feel bad for the young guys next year because it is more likely than not Joe runs it back. Ant Deni Toumani Grant Ayton
The change in odds from the 6th spot to the 10th spot doesn't move me and have instead enjoyed a run that was largely led by our young guys that I mostly want to be a part of the next competitive Blazers team. It's not like trading Rob Will, Grant, Ant and Ayton at the deadline would have suddenly pushed them into top 4 pick territory. Those guys haven't been the needle movers this year. We were so far underperforming our talent level at the beginning of the year, then went on a run vs a soft schedule but ultimately we look to be ending up where I thought we'd be. Our guys are making jumps that we wanted to see and building winning habits. Yeah Bailey would be a nice fit but isn't a no brainer future star. Harper would cool too but he's a questionable fit. And after that....this draft is very flat. So yeah, we lost out on maybe 5% odds at Flagg in the process of watching our future get better and play the most entertaining brand of basketball in 3+ years.... I'm more than ok with that.
it's not the #1 pick or bust....that's illogical. Flagg won't be the only good player in the draft and Portland could easily slide down to 12th in the lottery. So the issue is really the odds for a top-4 pick at 5th vs 12th. The odds for the 5th seed landing a top-4 pick are 40%; the odds for the 12th pick are 7%. That's 40% vs 7%.
Lol I know the odds. I just don't value Harper, Bailey or Edgecombe on a Blazers specific board as highly most here clearly do. Flagg is so above and beyond the rest of this class in my eyes where I do view it close to a Flagg and everyone else type of draft.
If Flagg is that great then we want every opportunity to get him. And even if we miss out on him, we want every opportunity to pick the next best player. Nothing we can possibly gain by winning games this season is worth close to as much as adding assets like that. We don't have enough to win. We're going to need as many assets as possible to trade ourselves over the top. I'm not saying don't enjoy the basketball, but understand that we're shooting ourselves in the foot.
How about they try to win while good teams sit all their best players and get a few more wins so they decrease their lotto odds. Then they can keep Simons, Grant and Ayton because those are the core you want to build around for sure. Then they can keep playing Scoot Sharpe and Deni off the bench in limited minutes so they don't improve faster so they don't have to give any of them max contracts. Then the team can save some more money and not sign a difference maker. They can also proceed with the plans to raise ticket prices for next year because the team might be good enough to compete for a play in spot. Or maybe someone could convince Jody to sell the team?
lol big-3 "cores" SGA-Jalen Williams-Holmgren (Hartenstein) Jokic-Murray-Gordon (Porter jr) Lebron-Doncic-Reaves Morant-Jaren Jackson-Bane Sengun-Green-VanVleet (Amen) Curry-Butler-Wiggins (Draymond) Mitchell-Garland-Mobley Tatum-Brown-Jrue (White/Pritchard) Brunson-Kat-Bridges (Hart/OG) Banchero-Wagner-Suggs Simons-Ayton-Grant one of those is not like the others
“Trouble grasping”. LOL, Phats. You’ve dropped this before on people (myself included) who have a different take than you on this topic. It’s just a tad condescending. I have taken more than enough statistics classes and still have enough functioning brain cells to understand that a 7% chance at a top-4 pick isn’t as good as a 40% chance. If that was all there was to a team-rebuilding algorithm, and if it yielded consistent success, then the path forward would be as single-minded as you have consistently portrayed it to be. But it’s not. Let’s look at one of the last can’t miss drafts - 2018. If the “algorithm” worked, then Ayton would still be with the Suns and they would be celebrating multiple titles with a Big 3 of Ayton, Durant, and Booker. Marvin Bagley wouldn’t have been a bust. Doncic would still be with the Mavs competing for titles with Kyrie as his running mate instead of being jettisoned because they didn’t want to pay super-max dollars on a guy who’s nickname could be “Pudge” and who is always injured. Jaren Jackson is a nice player, but the Grizzlies are still not truly challenging for a title despite Ja’s brilliance. Meanwhile, the best guy out of that draft, SGA, was picked at 11 , is an MVP front-runner, and has guided his team to the top of the West. He was acquired by the Thunder (a small-market team) by trade…not through the draft. The picking of draft prospects isn’t a science and the history of top-4 players is replete with busts. The Blazers have a young roster that they are still evaluating to see just how strong it can become. Playing to try to make the play-in gives valuable experience and lets management see how players handle pressure. After the meltdown in OKC, they may decide it’s time to pull the plug on this season and go full-on tank. I’m fine with that if they do. I also understand that there is more than one way to skin the rebuild cat. None of them are certain. We don’t know what trades of picks or players Cronin may be discussing or be contemplating for the offseason. I only know that tanking, while sometimes smart, is always demoralizing. Players deserve a chance to compete.
My point was in response to the "#1 pick or bust idea". It's not "#1 pick or bust". I'm sorry if that comes off as condescending, but that's just insane. To the point of being dishonest to even suggest you're arguing against that position. And no. Our young guys are gaining nothing valuable this season that they wouldn't have gained by being starting and playing leading roles for an smart basketball coach while losing 60-65 games due to lack of experience, but while gaining the valuable experience of being the cornerstones. And if you've taken statistics classes you should know that the anecdotal evidence you cited is included in the calculations that tell us you're 2 or 3 times more likely to draft an All-Star in the top 4-5 than the rest of the lottery. And you're literally rolling dice if you aren't in the lottery. Lottery picks all-star probability since 1989: 1. 21/30 = 70% 2. 13/30 = 43.3% 3. 18/30 = 60% 4. 11/30 = 36.7% 5. 12/30 = 30% 6. 6/30 = 20% 7. 5/30 = 16.7% 8. 1/30 = 3.3% 9. 10/30 = 33.3% 10. 8/30 = 26.7% 11. 6/30 = 20% 12. 1/30 = 3.3% 13. 5/30 = 16.7 % 14. 3/30 = 10% The specifics of your anecdotes aren't relevant. Talent rules all in the NBA. In order to trade for talent you have to send out talent. In order to sign talent you have to have more money than anybody else or be a destination city. We do not have more talent than other teams our age. We don't have more talent than most teams in general. We are not a destination city. We are not going to have more money to spend on free agents than anybody else. Drafting talent is really the only thing we have. And right now we have the opportunity to do that at a higher level than almost everybody else because we are so young. We are squandering that opportunity. And that is disappointing.
We were never going to be bottom 4 bad. The young guys were going to make a jump and the defensive talent was too good. Just came around later than we thought. Oh and 5th-8th has worse odds at a star that 9th-12th.
Completely disagree. We could have easily kept it under 15 to 20 wins. We would have lost far more games early and would have come on later. And if we were playing other young guys instead of Grant and Ayton our defense and rebounding wouldn't be nearly as good yet. This would cost us a lot of wins. Simon's, Grant, and Ayton have easily gotten us an extra 9 or 10 wins that we wouldn't have gotten otherwise. That would put us right at the bottom of the standings. And we wouldn't have to be giving the young guys mixed signals by punishing Sharpe for not playing capable defense while rewarding Simons for playing even worse defense. That's horrible. Inexcusable.
Ant, Grant and DA were all playing awful to start the year. I think there is a easy argument to be made that playing Scoot, DB (who was one of the only guys that had a positive plus minus in the first 30 games of the year), DC, Kris and starting Deni and giving him the rope he has now to start the year would have led to even more wins. Incredibly easy. The margin between our top and bottom end talent 1-11 is so incredibly thin.
Look for Joe to trade the pick. I could see him swinging for the fences thinking his roster is “close”. And by swinging for the fences a player like Sabonis. All in on Sabonis. I think it is a horrible idea but most of Joe’s moves are. Whether it’s home or the Vulcans isnt the point
In that scenario we'd have much more valuable young assets to pair with our albatross contracts. The situation you're describing is far better than the course of action we've taken.
