I think by "win now" what was meant (or the way that I took it) was that you were no longer trying to build through the draft if you trade for Deni. I think it was too early to make a move that prevented us from building through the draft. We need two or three more guys like Deni. And we need one of them to be much better than Deni. So trading draft assets that could have gotten those guys looks like a " win now" move. Because you're preventing adding more talent by adding him. You're capping your ability to keep adding more talent. If you think we have enough now to win then it's a good move. This would make this a win now move. Or If you know that we're going to add more talent with some of it being better than anybody currently on the team, then it's a good move. Or If you don't actually care about winning a championship and you just want to win some games and act like a competitive team then it's a fine move. Or If we get uncommonly lucky or have some internal promise that we're going to get high draft picks by winning rather than tanking then it's probably a good move. But again, if those aren't the case, then I don't know how we plan on adding more talent. IMO, we need another player better than anybody in our team now. And then we probably need another Deni or two on top of that.
Truthfully, I still think the year to be bad is next year. I think that's where you get the real players that can be difference-makers. I'd be thrilled to get lucky in the lottery and add Cooper Flagg to this core. If you told me I only could pick in the top three in one of the two drafts, this year or next, though, I'd pick next, because I think Dybantsa and Peterson both are better prospects than Flagg, and definitely better if you are looking for a superstar around which to build your contender. Honestly, when I think about it, I'm not sure Flagg next season would get the Blazers out of the lottery in 2026, although I think the Blazers would be a much, more solid top-six in the Western Conference for years with him as part of that group from 2026 on. If you really want to embrace the tank fully, though, and you get the top pick, I think you take Ace Bailey, because he's off-the-charts bust potential but also has the highest ceiling in this draft, IMO, if he puts it together. If we're just swinging for the fences every year, that would be the play.
This is where we disagree: I see Deni as building through the draft. I don't think building through the draft is just picking guys if the guys for which you are trading haven't had a real chance to establish themselves in the league. Deni was kind of in the same position as Shaedon before this year. Hypothetically, if for whatever reason the Rockets lost their minds and traded Jabari Smith for a package built around say Ayton and the Blazers' lottery pick, I wouldn't consider that not building through the draft. I think you limit yourself if you think of draft picks as something you have to make when they're really resources/assets that you can use to make picks or trade for talent. If you are getting a top talent from a recent draft by trading your lottery pick, that's still building through the draft. The goal is to get young talent, correct? It's getting the maximum value for your resources.
You mean taking Bailey over Flagg or that Dybantsa and Peterson are better prospects than Flagg? I think a lot of draft guys probably would agree with the latter. As for the former, it's not my take. It's simply stating that if you REALLY are embracing the tank, you throw caution to the wind and take the player who has the most upside regardless of bust potential, and that's Bailey, not Flagg, because Bailey is the guy who can absolutely take over games with his offense and I don't think Flagg is ever going to be that guy. I think Cooper Flagg is a great all-around talent but if he's your No. 1 scoring option you probably aren't a legit NBA title contender. Bailey can be that guy where Flagg can't be, and if you roll the dice on that and he's not, you're just picking high again the next year and you can do it again and again until finally you get that guy. That isn't my approach, but it's the consistent play if you are as full tank here as some seem to be. Just like I said about getting Avidja, I'm about getting talent. Trading for Avidja had a better chance to hit than picking at 14. Flagg has a better chance at being a better player than Bailey, even if Bailey has the higher upside. I don't think the odds of Bailey reaching his potential are so good that I'd pass on Flagg, who has a much higher floor and doesn't have that much lower a ceiling than Bailey.
My ideal scenario is to finish just outside the play-in and move up through the lottery. If you don't get the first pick, then I'm probably drafting Bailey, so long as there aren't any red flags in the interview process that makes you think he won't develop, and swing for the fences. If the Blazers stay where they are, then I'm thinking Knueppel, McNeely or Tre Johnson, because they all are value around 10 and I think are even more valuable to the Blazers because they possess a consistent skill we don't have as great shooters. If I managed to trade Ant/Grant/Ayton and somehow get one or two more picks before 20 in this draft, then I'm looking at Demin and Essengue, because they are long and versatile and fit the model that's been working for us. Demin's passing is elite and he's a solid defender; great passers make great teams. Essengue is a taller Batum/Tou with more offensive upside, IMO. If that happens, you've cleared the vets that occasionally are winning games for you and this becomes Scoot's/Shaedon's team next year and I think they develop along with those other young pieces but you still are in the lottery. Then, in 2026, you add another high-end piece and you let it bake for a couple of years. To me, at least, that's the ideal scenario.
Deni is a win now move because he has a cheap contract and can play well for a team wanting to win today. He cost assets with zero value today but a high future value. ESPN point is fair that its debatable if that was the best strategy for the Blazers. We are using his salary slot, harming our draft pick, lost a lottery pick, plus still owe Washington a pick that could be as high as #2 overall. Their overall point is one that yes many of us have been screaming about for years. The various moves Portland does together make no sense for this team. Tanking to the 3rd worst record last season in an epically weak draft and now with players like Deni and our vets dropping to the back of the lottery in a loaded draft. Holding onto Grant Ayton Ant Timelord when they had value, which now is worth less, and cost our youth development time as well as harmed our pick. By the time the Blazers are ready to content Deni will be due a huge raise. So what will be the point of all these years he outplayed his contract and harmed our pick?
The odds always are against everyone. Next draft you've got more elite talent at the top. If the Blazers are playing with this Scoot, Shae, Toumani, Deni, Clingan, Murray, Rupert, whoever it drafts this year ... that's probably going to get a worse record next year even if the young players continue to progress. I just get the feeling now I'm debating people who are looking and fixating on reasons to feel down. We've gotten so far off what I posted to start with, everything is just going off on side arguments to say the team's going to be bad no matter what it does.
If that was true those teams would have traded for Deni in the offseason. He was available and a lot of contending teams had more to offer than the Blazers did. He was not proven. Therefore he was not a win-now move. And then you're going into this wild speculation of what might happen in an unspecified amount of time in the future based on an unspecified contribution by Avidja based on unknown salary cap and unknown cap space for the Blazers. Good lord. I read some of this stuff and it's more depressing than the last season of Game of Thrones. It's just unrealistically pessimistic. I'm out. I have better things to do with my day than engage with people who crap on the team for making bad moves or good moves or any moves or not making moves or the players outperforming their contracts or underperforming their contacts. I don't think any of you will ever be happy. If this team wins the title in 10 years, there still will be some cloud around it for you. Yeesh.
By great pick I'm talking top 4-ish. If you lose the most games you have great odds of getting a great pick. It's just frustrating is all. Hopefully this works out for the best. But without hitting the Powerball I don't see it happening.
Nah. If they turn into a contending team with legit chance to win I'll be super happy and gladly eat crow. I would love nothing more. *Edit* In fact, if they trade the vets and we make the playoffs next year there won't be any reason to be upset. We'll be beyond tanking so we'll just have to focus on getting better via moves and coaching. It's just it hurts right now, this season to be actively trying to miss this opportunity.
Miami has an absolutely cake finishing schedule. I see them winning at least 5 more games. Chicago is similar. I see them winning 4 more games. We can't let either team pass us in the lotto standings. Spurs might win one more game. I don't see us finishing ahead of them in the lotto standings.
Chicago and Miami are also competing with each other for 9th seed, so they probably won't be deliberately tanking any games Blazers play @ Bulls on the 2nd night of a b-2-b the last 2 Blazer games of the season are at home against the Warriors and Lakers. Normally, you could expect at least one of those teams to rest players and concede the wins. That still might happen. BUT, right now the Warriors are only 1/2 game ahead of the Clippers for 6th seed and dodging the play-in. And the Lakers are only 1/2 game behind Memphis in the race for 4th seed and HCA in the 1st round
Yeah, the Spurs have two games left that they can win. The road game against the Blazers, and their last game at home against Toronto. Maybe another if the opposing team sits a ton of players, but it looks like the Blazers would need to lose out to get the 8th spot.
Spurs have shut down both Wemby and Fox for the season. The irony here is that 39 year old injury magnet CP3 has played in all 71 games for the Spurs. Still, as you say, 2 more wins seems like the ceiling for them if the Blazers lose tonight, they would slide to 3.5 games behind 10th & 11th seeds. But they'd be 4 losses behind. And they will have lost the tiebreakers with all 3 teams they are chasing. So, effectively they'd be 4.5 games or 5 losses behind....with 8 games left. No chance for play-in. But a chance for 9th seed in the lottery if they finally accepted reality
They are already holding out Ayton and Grant. I doubt very much those two are "that" injured. The biggest tank obstacle at the moment is Deni, followed by Simons. It's only 9 games.....shut them down
