Battle for play-in

We could have guaranteed a top 5 pick. GUARANTEED.

Now, we have a 20-25% chance at top 5 (even though we can't get #5)...

 

I respect your right to wait and see if anything crazy happens, on the condition that you agree with me if/when nothing crazy happens and the #1 pick goes to a bottom 5 team.

 

It's not as big a deal as it sounds. Seriously.

 

This attitude is such horseshit.

 

Surprised at how good we are for how young we are.

 

Nothing is supposed to happen. We all flow in the same river. Nobody is beating OKC anytime soon.

 

If we hadn’t tanked last night, we’d be .5 game behind Suns and 2.5 behind Kings. Kings next five opponents are tough while we play Spurs and Jazz.

 

We will be fine. We have a great young core.
Players evolve and move rapidly in the NBA. Sharpe may yet emerge as a number one option fit for a contender, but if not, it’s pretty clear we have a great second and third option that still have growth potential, as it is.
We have assets, in talented players, if not now, they will turn into them as expiring contracts. We have picks we can trade.
Ayton/Ant/Williams/Grant/Thybulle, i don't project as part of the future and can be used to improve the core of
Scoot/Shae/Tou/Deni/Clingan/Walker(improving and on rookie contract).
Murray/Rupert/Walker can all be used in the right trade if needed, as well.

I think without moves and playing the young guys, next year we improve 7-10 wins on growth and development alone. Make the right trade for the missing pc and we might be a 10-15 game improvement with a decent amount of growth yet to be fulfilled.

We can trade picks and players to land that missing pc. We might use our pick and draft that missing pc.
Nothing is certain.
Enjoy the game and have fun, but to me, overall, we are on the right track.

 

tomorrow's game is for 6% better chance at top 4 and 1.5 better chance at CF. #mustlose

 

100%. Control what you can control.

 

there is less than a year difference between Portland and OKC, Houston, and Memphis. OKC has the best record in the NBA. Houston is 2nd seed in the West wit the 4th best record; Memphis has won 45 games. 8 of the youngest 14 teams in the league have better records than Portland. Portland's youth is underperforming several other young teams

more than that though is that for most of the season, the Blazer starting 5 was: Simons-Sharpe-Camara-Grant-Ayton. Their average age is 26.1 which is 2.2 years older than Portland's average (average age of OKC's starting lineup is 23.6). And the player lowering that average, Sharpe, was benched for 20 games by Chauncey. And if Chauncey has proven anything it is that if those vets are healthy, they will not only start, they will play heavy minutes and dominate usage. And as of now, all those vets will be returning next season. Further, both Thybulle and Timelord will be 28 next season

next season, the average age of Simons-Grant-Ayton-Timelord-Thybulle with be 28.3. Camara will be 25.4; Avdija will turn 25 halfway thru the season. Murray will be 25; Banton will be 26; Reath will be 29

something else: Portland's average age is 23.9. The average age of the Portland roster that won the championship in 1977 was 24.5. That roster actually youth with elite talent. This year's roster doesn't

this recurring narrative that Portland is ahead of the curve on average age seems a bit hollow; it's spin

 

What’s your problem dawg? You come on here day in and day out cracking on people for having a REALISTIC take on the team. To be totally honest you haven’t been here long enough for this to happen.
I’ll give you props if you can give an educated explanation for how us MISSING the playoffs and us MISSING the top of the draft lottery is a GOOD situation to be in. You’re one of those “55 wins a season prediction” kinda cats huh? Slow your roll on tossing hate on people simply because they think we aren’t going to the FINALS every season.

 

the best part is, none of you said matters! You have no part in the Blazers success or failure, no say in what they do at all! You’re probably right but your words are meaningless. Enjoy their future for what it is because not being happy is literally the only decision you make in this sport. If you want to back a winner, become an OKC fan.

 

Realistically though Grant, Ayton and to lesser extent Ant, were not the ones playing much after the all star break where we have seen some significant improvement.

If we move on from them this off season or even Grant and Ant, that will improve our average age and I don't think we take a dip in numbers.
Grant played like shit this year. We all know he will be moved soon. He shouldn't be a factor in the calculation of our future.
To me, your post is a bit inaccurate because of that.

Now if we don't move them, you are right and we are fucked. But we could move them for picks(maybe not great ones) to maintain the youth core and improve our age, making your numbers inaccurate.

I still think there is a chance we can find a three way to move a combo of Ayton/Grant/Ant/Williams and picks for the missing pc to add to this core.

 

To be perfectly honest with you, we are doing way better this season than I thought we would. Any wins to finish the season will just be gravy on top. I do not like the Blazers losing effect me as much as it used too. As far as the offseason goes, I do think some obvious moves need to be made and do not think Ant and Grant both will be here next season.

Keep the faith, about all we can always do.

 

not really true

I just looked at the game logs of when the Blazers won 10 of 11 that started this kerfuffle; and Ant-Grant-Simons only missed one or two games each, at most. And there was always at least 2 of them playing. And when they played, they played significant minutes

after a 4 game losing streak the Blazers won 5 of 6 against the absolute dregs of the NBA (Charlotte-Utah-Washington-Brooklyn-Philly). Ayton was out; Simons was there for all 6 games; Grant for 3. After that stretch, with Ayton & Grant out, Portland has played 16 games; 12 with Simons. The Blazers went 6-10 over that stretch. 3-3 with Simons.

the foursome of Ant-Grant-Ayton-Timelord has been worth 10 wins based upon winshares. I think hot shooting from Simons-Ayton-Grant has been worth 3 or 4 more wins above those 10 winshares. That's not to say that the Blazers would be at 20-21 wins right now without those vets. Their replacements would have added back a couple of winshares. And, if the team had been turned over to the younger guys from the beginning of the season, or at least from the trade deadline, I'd think guys like Avdija & Sharpe (plus Scoot, Clingan and Toumani) would have added back 2-4 more wins, maybe more

that's what I wanted to see: the Blazers set up to organically tank heading into the lottery. But if the actual youth of the Blazers was too good to organically tank effectively, then fine. But to not tank because of those vets is dumb.

I'll point it out again: in a 1 year period, from July 2026 thru July 2027, Ayton, Simons, Timelord, Thybulle, Sharpe, Scoot, & Camara will ALL be getting new contracts. And a year after that, Avdija & Clingan (Grant too) will be getting new deals. Even if you delete Grant, Timelord and Thybulle from the equation, in a 2 year period Ayton-Simons-Sharpe-Scoot-Camara-Avdija-Clingan will be on new contracts. That is simply unsustainable. Out of those 7 players, which two does Portland discard in order to re-sign Simons and Ayton? Yeah, that's the problem because at this point, the logical discards should be Simon and Ayton (along with Grant's albatross deal). And that was logical last summer. So why go thru this season and damage lottery odds by keeping those 3 high priced vets?

 

With the Kings win over Cleveland, we have been eliminated from the play-in.