Edit updated to correct tax per CJisGone; Looking at what contracts we have on the books right now for next season of 2025-26 from Spotrac I see these; Ayton 35,550,814 Grant 32,000,001 Simons 27,678,571 Avdija 14,375,000 Timelord 13,285,713 Thybulle 11,550,000 Scoot 10,748,040 Clingan 7,178,400 Sharpe 8,399,983 Murray 3,132,000 Camara 2,221,677 Rupert 2,221,677 Didi 268,032 Duop 2,221,677 2025 pick 10,000,000 (likely 6-13 mil) Total 180,831,585 Luxury Tax 187,897,000 Tax Space 7,065,415 Banton UFA/MLE not included above edit changed this explanation as it appears we have some room under the tax.
I doubt Thybulle wants to stick around another year. I bet there is a better than 50% chance he opts out. That would save another 11.5
Tax threshold is anticipated to be $188M, not $170M. https://www.spotrac.com/nba/portland-trail-blazers/tax/_/year/2025/sort/tax_total So Portland will have ~$18M to work with for 2 roster spots (assuming Reath is retained). Or they will have ~$20M to work with for 3 spots. Assuming the lotto pick will be making ~$7-10M of that, there's still plenty of room to work with.
Much appreciated - your update appears correct. I had googled something that projected next years tax at $170mil tax (must have been current year though) then when confirming on spotract incorrectly looked at the Blazers total.
I've heard multiple posters say this but I can't imagine he is going to walk away from $11 million? Yes he's good defensively - but he's averaged 4.8ppg in his career. Thats a part time fringe role player at best. Last year starting a third of his games for us he averaged a massive 5.4ppg. Now he has been injured since then - more than Timelord. Why would any team offer him more than 11 million? Superior players are taking the vet minimum. We would probably just trade or release him at or before February next season so its only 3-4 months until he gets that full $11 million and is out of Portland. Then he gets to a different team either way. He would be a full free agent the following summer to pick his city when he is still only 29 but with $11million extra in the bank.
Banton contract offer is kind of the only decision we will need to immediately make. The tax MLE was about $5.2 million with a max of 2 years. If we offer more years or more dollars we need to use the full MLE - which I think is fine as we will likely operate with the luxury tax as an effective hard cap. So will probably be a contract starting at up to around $7 million we can offer Banton up to 4 years so about $30 million max. If our pick isn't at the top of the draft or we don't have Duop we can likely offer more. Depends a lot on how Banton looks the rest of this year though - I wouldn't think he is more than a $30 million player.
he obviously wanted out of Portland last season, so there's that I think it will depend on what his agent tells him he can get as a UFA. If he can get 7-10M year for 3-4 years, he could theoretically triple that guaranteed 11M. Even a 3-year/25M deal vs 11M could look a lot better than spending another season in the Portland purgatory. Dallas may come calling again
You mean because he signed with Dallas? That was just getting the biggest offer on the table. I saw him at a local minor league baseball game in PDX months ago in the summer. He threw the first pitch, sure didn't seem like a guy that wanted to be out of the city or on a different team.
Exactly. He will be 28 in March. So if he thinks he can get a 4-year contract this summer at those numbers you suggested AND go to a contender.....why not? He has had some minor injuries and I am not sure how that plays into it, but if I were him I would roll the dice now on a longer contract.
I can't imagine his market is that high. Look at all the superior players signing for the vet minimum every offseason. When Dallas signed him he was coming off a rookie contract and had shot 39% on threes in Portland. He was only 25, there was probably hope he could become a bit better bench role player or temporary starter. Now not being able to break into a bad wing rotation for a 21 win team while posting worse numbers I can't imagine has him with the same demand. I guess we will see.
He is already earning more than the tax MLE. You think a team will open up the full MLE and hard cap themselves to sign Thybulle? Just doesn't make any sense. If Thybulle really has this kind of value the Blazers should flip him for a 2nd round pick in the next few months. I'll believe it when I see it.
I'm not saying he will, I'm saying he could depending on his market. At this point it's probably 50-50, but I do believe if he has an opportunity to increase his guaranteed money while escaping the mess of a franchise he's in, he probably will
Sure take a 2nd........if we get an ending contract in return (or if he slides into another team's unused MLE). But that seems even less likely. I would take the chance that he opts out and save the cap space. If he doesn't then try to trade him for a 2nd.
So these are the next deadlines this summer. 6/24 Thybulle player option for $11.6 million - so he can't be in any trades until he declines that option. 7/1 Dalano Banton is an unrestricted free agent - he was earning $2.2 million 7/1 Jabari Walker is a restricted free agent with a ~$2.6 million qualify offer 7/1 #11 pick is slotted for about $5.7 million 7/1 Full MLE is about $14.1 million 8/1 Duop Reath $2.2 million becomes guaranteed, current guarantee is $0. With his limited playing time I wouldn't be surprised if he got cut especially if we are close to the roster limit Ayton, Ant, Timelord, Thybulle, Sharpe, Camara, Rupert are all eligible for extensions
So I suppose current depth chart is projected as; Ayton Clingan Timelord Grant Deni Camara Murray Rupert Sharpe Thybulle Simons Scoot So thats 12 guys, 13 with the #11 pick. Obviously a trade could totally change the above. But who knows I never would have imagined we'd stand pat for 12 months when doing the Deni trade last summer.
I kind of have changed my tune on Thybulle. I still think he will opt out despite his exit interview, but now I hope he doesn't. If he does leave, then give those minutes to Rupert. In terms of the salary cap, Grant is the only issue I see. However, keeping him would make us better this next year. But I still think they will trade him if they can get an ending contract. (or easily tradable assets) In terms of the depth chart, I am not sure if Deni starts or not, but he will still log the most minutes. Although the only reason I can see him not starting is that he is also needed to play with the 2nd team. So if he came in halfway through the 1st, he could play with both. But we really need to know who is still on the team before that is debated. Simon's contract, IMO, is the easiest to move. But they should not take a bad contract back unless the other team steps up with a valuable asset in return. Ayton's offense is needed at this point, so I would not dump his contract the way they would Grant's.
Yeah, I did. It was one of the best I have ever heard. I actually posted the interview. But I also believe he is a master politician and is smart enough to always say the right things. I am sure he likes it here, but that doesn't mean he won't opt out this year if he thinks he can get a long-term contract. He did miss a lot of games, and if he opted in and he got hurt again, could that affect his next contract? He might think it would, thus a solid reason he might opt out now and get the guaranteed 50+ million.
As I see it now - The Blazers have to free up one roster spot to fit in the #11 draft pick. The most obvious option is to not re-sign Banton. All else remains the same. I think we're all hoping for a consolidation trade with some vets going out freeing up a few roster spots. This should be a fun summer!
