<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>I've spent the last few days asking several NFL personnel people and scouts what kind of draft this is, and this is the conclusion I've drawn: This league is scared witless about the money it's about to pay this class of rookies, because there aren't enough first-round-caliber players who deserve it.One executive I spoke with -- a smart football man whom I trust very much -- said his team gave only 18 players first-round grades in its recently concluded draft meetings. That means, as he said, a bunch of second-round-quality players (at least, in this team's view) will be drafted between the middle and end of the first round, and they will make more money than players with holes deserve to make. "I bet you'll see plenty of teams in the mid- to low-first-round trying to trade down, and I bet they'll have a lot of trouble finding trading partners,'' this personnel guy said.And I don't recall hearing this many questions about top picks in a while. Does Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas look so good mostly because the crop of offensive linemen is so weak this year? Will LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell stay unspoiled and focused with $25 million in the bank? Is Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn -- the player who scares the teams at the top of this draft the most -- a product of the Charlie Weis system or a bona fide blue chip prospect? The only player question-free is Georgia Tech receiver Calvin Johnson, who runs like a cornerback (4.35 seconds in the 40-yard dash) and who has tight end size (6-foot-5, 239 pounds)."The top of this draft board is so weak,'' one top scout said. "Guys will be handed money who haven't done nearly enough to deserve it.''Ten quick observations I've gleaned over the past few days:1. The upset special of the first round? I say it's the ascension of Arkansas defensive end Jamaal Anderson into the top 10. After a mediocre pro-day workout (4.75-second 40, 22 reps of the 225-pound bench press) the knocking of Anderson began. But there are many teams that view Anderson as the surest thing among defensive ends and outside linebackers; I've talked to three that like Anderson over top-five lock Gaines Adams, the Clemson defensive end. Anderson weighs 284 pounds, and he should be able to adapt to an end spot in either a 4-3 or 3-4 defense.2. Running back Adrian Peterson wants to be a Brown. So does Quinn. I met both of them the other day in New York, where they were promoting the Sprint draft phone. (How bizarre. You can get a cellular telephone and watch the draft on it.) Anyway, I asked Peterson: Got a gut feeling where you're going to get picked? Now, when you ask most guys this question, they've been well-schooled in not favoring one team over another. Said Peterson: "My gut feeling? Cleveland at three. Sitting down with them [coach Romeo Crennel, GM Phil Savage], I get the feeling they're very, very interested. I would love it there. The fans in Cleveland are the closest to college fans in the NFL. I love the Dawg Pound. I think I can be a franchise back and really help the Browns turn it around.''3. Regarding Quinn, he seemed to make a believer out of Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden during a Saturday morning workout in South Bend. "This is a very physical guy who can make all the plays," Gruden said. "I was very impressed. All I can say is he is a tremendous young prospect. He really blew me away with his workout."Quinn is having a good time with the process and seems, at least outwardly, to now take the pre-draft criticisms of his game (not accurate enough, can't win the big one, system quarterback, etc.) better than he did at the combine. "As far as draft analysis,'' he said, "I don't pay much attention to it. The only thing that matters is where you get picked, and learning everything you can about that offense once you get picked.''I asked one personnel man last week where he placed Quinn on his board. "Middle of the first round,'' he said. "When I watch him on tape, I come up with more questions than answers. I really don't like how he played against an athletic team like LSU in the bowl game this year, and you know he's going to face a lot of defenses like that in the NFL.''4. Everyone thinks the Raiders should pick JaMarcus Russell. I mean, everybody.5. At receiver, Dwayne Jarrett seems to be sinking like a stone. Ted Ginn Jr. is rising, bad foot and all. There are teams -- plural -- that, if they resolve all their medical questions about Ginn in the next week or so, will have him as the No. 2 receiver on their boards, just ahead of Robert Meachem of Tennessee and Dwayne Bowe of LSU. Jarrett? Smells like a second-rounder to me.6. Darrelle Revis, Leon Hall. Leon Hall, Darrelle Revis. Pick a corner, any corner. I bet NFL teams would be 17-15 in some order or 16-16 if you asked which corner they had rated higher, Pitts' Revis or Michigan's Hall. Opening-day 2007: Hall's your man. Reliable, big-game-tested. Opening-day 2009: Maybe Revis, who's slightly bigger with a little more potential. They are so similar, in fact, that Hall was .01 faster in dashing 10 yards (1.45 to 1.46) and Revis .01 faster in the 40- (4.38 to 4.39).7. More people like Joe Thomas than don't, but there is some question about his ability to overpower defensive ends. No question, though, he's one of the quickest left tackle prospects to come out in years, and he and Calvin Johnson are by far the top prospects with the fewest questions. "He's got no holes,'' Tampa Bay GM Bruce Allen told Thomas' agent, Peter Schaffer, after Thomas visited the Bucs last week.8. In the eyes of most teams, there seems to be a group of seven players who belong as high-first-round picks: Russell, Johnson, Adams, Peterson, Thomas, Quinn (despite the questions, because he's a quarterback) and safety LaRon Landry of LSU. After that, the questions start. "It's why I'd almost rather be 19 than nine in the first round,'' one GM said. "Because you get to nine, and there's a good chance the guy you have next on your board won't be the guy picked at eight, nine, 10, and the team at nine won't be able to trade back because the value just won't be there.''9. No one knows what Al Davis or Matt Millen are going to do at 1-2. This will make for an entertaining run-up to the draft.10. For a long time, defensive tackle Alan Branch looked like a sure-fire top-five pick. But most teams don't see the motor they'd like to see on a very high pick, and some see him only as a 3-4 nose man. So to invest the fourth, fifth or sixth pick on him ... dicey. Very dicey. And expensive.More to come next Monday. I'm not the world's biggest draftnik, and I think too many people go too nuts over this stuff and begin to project too much that can't be projected about 21-year-old kids (and, in the case of Amobi Okoye of Louisville, 19-year-old kids) until they get to a training camp. But the top of this draft is going to fascinating. It's Russian roulette, particularly for the Raiders and the Lions.</div>
That doesn't suprise me at all, I've been thinking it's a fairly weak class for a while now. Overall the talent level dropoff from the prospects who will go 20 overall and 40 overall is almost none, despite the top half of that list getting a First Round Salary and the Second half of that list getting a Second Round Salary. Even the top part of the draft boards is kinda thin, as prospects like Russell, Quinn, and Peterson (Health Issues) all have more questions then you want in a potential Top 5 pick and Gaines Adams isn't even the consensus top Defensive End on the board.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (The Punisher @ Apr 18 2007, 01:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I think there are plenty of 1st round talents taken in the 3rd round too.</div>Not really. I'd say the following players would get First Round Grades in my book.JaMarcus RussellBrady QuinnAdrian PetersonMarshawn LynchCalvin JohnsonDwyane BoweRobert MeachemJoe ThomasLevi BrownGaines AdamsJamal AndersonAdam CarrikerAlan BranchAmobi OkoyePatrick WillisLeon HallDarrelle RevisChris HoustonLaRon Landry19 Players...the rest I'd list under 'Second Round Talents who will get selected in the First Round due to a thin talent pool'.
What about...Greg Olsen (future Pro Bowler), Brian Leonard, Ted Ginn, Dwayne Jarrett (best hands in the draft), Reggie Nelson, Michael Griffin, Jarvis Moss, Paul Posluszny, Lawrence Timmons, Justin Harrell, Joe Staley, Eric Wright, Aaron Ross, Justin Blalock, Anthony Spencer, Charles Johnson... all those guys can be top 20 picks.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (The Punisher @ Apr 18 2007, 01:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>What about...Greg Olsen (future Pro Bowler) - The guy was a classic underachiever in College who would not even get drafted in the First Round if he didn't run a 4.4.Brian Leonard - A Fullback will not get a First Round Grade, no matter how good he is. Nor will he even get drafted in the First Round. Sorry, but it's the truth.Ted Ginn - Guy with blazing speed, but does almost nothing else well. Soft, Weak, and Runs Poor Routes. See Troy Williamson.Dwayne Jarrett (best hands in the draft) - Also one of the slowest WRs in the draft and has some character concerns as people wonder if he has the motavation and work-ethic to succeed at the next level, or if hes another Mike Williams. Will fall to second round because of it. Reggie Nelson - Inexperianced JUCO transfer who is a dumbass. Ran a lackluster 40 time as well.Michael Griffin - Probably the closest one mentioned yet to a First Round Grade, but you have to be an Elite Saftey to get that label and Griffin is more 'Very Good' then 'Elite' Jarvis Moss - Character Corcerns, Inexperianced, Raw. All kinds of potential which gets teams salivating, but also high bust risk.Paul Posluszny - Undersized Average Athlete.Lawrence Timmons - Inexperianced Undersized System LB, only really fits a 4-3 Based Defense. All kinds of potential which gets teams salivating, but also high bust risk.Justin Harrell - Never Healthy and Soft motor. Not a good combination.Joe Staley - Non-Factor Against the Run, Quick but Weak. Only getting Round 1 consideration because of the rarity of a good Left Tackle, much like Quarterback where they get drafted further up the draft then they belong.Eric Wright - You're kidding, right? I wouldn't select him in Round 2. Takes Chance, Gets Burned. Takes another Chance Gets Burned Again.....Takes another chance...get the hint yet? Well, at least you do because this guy sure as hell didn't. Aaron Ross - Already 25 years old. Who the hell is going to spend a Round 1 pick on someone who's career will be almost over by the time his Rookie Contract ends?Justin Blalock - Very Close to a First Round Grade, but you have to be an Elite Guard to get that label and Blalock is more 'Very Good' then 'Elite' Anthony Spencer - Also close, but no cigar. Average Height, Slightly above Average Measureables, Inexperianced Tweener who might need a position change. Wheres the Elite?Charles Johnson - Haha, No. I don't even think he gets a second round grade either. Quentin Moses stole all the attention away from him with his constant double teams, and he still didn't make many plays in college.all those guys can be top 20 picks. - Only because of a thin draft are they in consideration of it.</div>
JaMarcus RussellAdrian PetersonMarshawn LynchCalvin JohnsonDwyane BoweRobert MeachemJoe ThomasLevi BrownGaines AdamsJamal AndersonAdam CarrikerAlan BranchAmobi OkoyePatrick WillisLeon HallLaRon LandryI copied your list ADOV, but those are the only real 1st round talents that I see. Quinn is so highly overrated it isn't funny. The best thing about him was his 40 time. There should be a few late and mid-round steals this year, but nothing more than 2nd round talent for most guys. I'm having a feeling we see a Colston type player taken in the 5-6th round area.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Capt. Comeback @ Apr 18 2007, 09:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>JaMarcus RussellAdrian PetersonMarshawn LynchCalvin JohnsonDwyane BoweRobert MeachemJoe ThomasLevi BrownGaines AdamsJamal AndersonAdam CarrikerAlan BranchAmobi OkoyePatrick WillisLeon HallLaRon LandryI copied your list ADOV, but those are the only real 1st round talents that I see. Quinn is so highly overrated it isn't funny. The best thing about him was his 40 time. There should be a few late and mid-round steals this year, but nothing more than 2nd round talent for most guys. I'm having a feeling we see a Colston type player taken in the 5-6th round area.</div>Next Colston = Jacoby Jones :thumbsup:
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (The Punisher @ Apr 18 2007, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Next Colston = Jacoby Jones :thumbsup:</div>Next Laveranues Coles = Laurent Robinson
Venom, I think you're underrating Wright greatly. He can be one of the three best corners in this draft if he keeps himself in check.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (GaMeTiMe @ Apr 19 2007, 09:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Venom, I think you're underrating Wright greatly. He can be one of the three best corners in this draft if he keeps himself in check.</div>1st round Quality:HallHoustonRevisRoss2nd Round Quality: McCauleyIronsWrightWilson
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Apr 19 2007, 10:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (GaMeTiMe @ Apr 19 2007, 09:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Venom, I think you're underrating Wright greatly. He can be one of the three best corners in this draft if he keeps himself in check.</div>1st round Quality:HallHoustonRevisRoss2nd Round Quality: McCauleyIronsWrightWilson</div>I really don't see Ross as a First Round Quality because the guy is already 25 years old. Teams draft players wanting to think that this will solve their Cornerback problem for the next decade, and in the case of someone like Aaron Ross, he will probably be 2-3 years into retirement at that point, or at the very most subjected to a backup role like Aaron Glenn has been the past few years.I also consider Irons more of a 3rd round grade because he will also be a 25 year old Rookie.As for Wright, He's the Classic speedster who gets raised way too far based off of potential. Takes alot of risks trying to be a ball-hawk and gets burned in the process too much, not physical, below-average against the run, with most importantly some Major Character Concerns (Arrested for Suspicion of Rape but charges were never filed (Probably Lack of Evidence), Police found 136 Ecstacy Pills in his place). If I was a scout he'd get a 3rd round grade in my book.If I'm running a Cover 2 team I'd rank Hughes above either Irons or Wright, as I think he'd be perfect for that system.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Apr 19 2007, 10:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>1st round Quality:HallHoustonRevisRoss2nd Round Quality: McCauleyIronsWrightWilson</div>HallRevisHoustonWrightRossMcCauleyBennettWilsonJacksonHughesIronsThat's how I'd rank them as far as first day guys go. Wilson, Jackson and Hughes may all go before Bennett, but I'm a big fan of his. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Irons in the fourth.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (GaMeTiMe @ Apr 21 2007, 07:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jon_Vilma @ Apr 19 2007, 10:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>1st round Quality:HallHoustonRevisRoss2nd Round Quality: McCauleyIronsWrightWilson</div>HallRevisHoustonWrightRossMcCauleyBennettWilsonJacksonHughesIronsThat's how I'd rank them as far as first day guys go. Wilson, Jackson and Hughes may all go before Bennett, but I'm a big fan of his. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Irons in the fourth.</div>Wow, high on Fred Bennett you are.
