Heading into summer, the Sonics are committed to eight players - Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Vitaly Potapenko, Brent Barry, Calvin Booth, Jerome James, Vladimir Radmanovic and Joseph Forte - who will be paid a combined $44.825 million next season. They also have two first-round draft choices, tentatively the 12th and 14th, who will make approximately $1.4 million and $1.5 million. In addition, they would like to re-sign Reggie Evans, Kevin Ollie, Ronald Murray and possibly Peja Drobnjak. They have available for free agency the $4.5 million mid-level exception, as well as the misnamed million dollar exception, which is now $1.4 million. Clearly, the numbers do not work, because the Sonics are restricted by a luxury tax threshold that could be as low as $50 million, but will most likely be around $52 million. Initially, this is what the Sonics face: If they retain their eight players under contract, sign their two first-round picks and give a free agent their mid-level exception, they are already over the $52 million luxury tax threshold ($52.225 million). The Sonics would have to pay a dollar-for-dollar penalty over the threshold, a situation they want to avoid. And that is before they try to re-sign any of their own free agents. The first order of business is to decide if they are going to keep both first-round picks. They will not know until May 22 exactly what picks they have, but there is a 90 percent chance they will be Nos. 12 and 14. They could package those picks and move up in the draft. They could move down - some observers think a player drafted around 20 will have roughly the same skills as a player drafted at 12. Or, they could trade one of the picks for a future pick, thus getting out from under one guaranteed salary. Second, the Sonics will try to trade one of their three centers, preferably Potapenko or Booth, who will make a combined $11.16 million next season. However, it is unlikely a team is going to take one of those without an incentive, most likely in the form of Radmanovic. So the Sonics must determine if Radmanovic will blossom into the player they thought he would when they selected him ahead of Troy Murphy and Richard Jefferson in the 2001 draft; or if he will always be an odd fit, an undersized, 3-point-shooting power forward. McMillan desperately craves a frontcourt player who can score with his back to the basket. Denver forward Juwan Howard is the free agent the Sonics most covet. One scenario is a sign-and-trade deal, with Radmanovic and either Booth or Potapenko being shipped to Denver in exchange for Howard.
as a sonics fan, i await with interest to see what they do... 1) ronald murray is under contract for 2 more seasons - he was a 2nd round pick, but the bucks signed him for 3 years cos they liked him so much. the sonics are grooming him to be a point guard, likely at the expense of joseph forte and the sonics will probly waive him and pay out the last year of his contract 2) the sonics like radman, but will likely use him as trade bait due to his 'tweener status' as a power forward, and rashard lewis will play 40 minutes a night at small forward 3) elden campbell and drobnjak have full bird and early brid rights respectively, meaning the sonics can exceed the salary cap to sign them (campbell by any amount). chances are they won't resign campbell, but management and ray allen like drobnjaks ability to draw his opponent out and hit the perimeter shot (thats about all they can do) 4) ollie and evans are both non-bird, so the sonics must use a salary cap exception to sign each. evans will likely get better offers elsewhere, as he showed the grit and uncanny rebounding ability that will make him an attractive reserve or even starter on a team with a lot of offense. ollie is a fave of sonics management, but might be forced out overall, the team will be built around Shard and RayRay, its just a matter of getting the right pieces. probable draft picks are ridnour, hinrich, sweetney or sofokalis (dunno how to spell that), but another possible scenario is packaging radman and one of the centres, or even radman and the lower pick (likely 14) in a sign and trade for howard or andre miller - both players have said they'll consider seattle. booth is pretty much untradable, but potapenko is not as his contract has only one more year to run, clearing cap room at the end of next season. either way, expect big changes in seattle over the summer.
I'm not sure if the Sonics are ready to give up on Forte. He was the key player they wanted when they dumped Baker. It will be interesting to see if the Sonics try to re-sign Payton or go after another top caliber PG. I don't think they are going to start the season with Barry at the PG. The Sonics need to unload some of their big men and upgrade at the position. Reggie Evans is a great inside banger, but the Sonics need one of their centers to play with Reggie's tenacity. Booth was a waste of money, Campbell is too old, Potapenko is always injured, Predrag Drobnjak can't play defense and is soft, and Jerome James had a disappointing year. Hopefully James can improve in the off-season and stay healthy. He's a legit center and is willing to give up the body and do the dirty work. RayRay and Shard are definately the cornerstones of the team and the Sonics do have a lot of options on the table to get the role players they need to make this a playoff team. Next year should be another great battle for the 7th and 8th seeds with the Suns, Rockets, Sonics and Warriors (if Arenas resigns), fighting to grab those spots. Utah will not be back in the playoffs.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting "shapecity":</div><div class="quote_post">I'm not sure if the Sonics are ready to give up on Forte. He was the key player they wanted when they dumped Baker. It will be interesting to see if the Sonics try to re-sign Payton or go after another top caliber PG. I don't think they are going to start the season with Barry at the PG. The Sonics need to unload some of their big men and upgrade at the position. Reggie Evans is a great inside banger, but the Sonics need one of their centers to play with Reggie's tenacity. Booth was a waste of money, Campbell is too old, Potapenko is always injured, Predrag Drobnjak can't play defense and is soft, and Jerome James had a disappointing year. Hopefully James can improve in the off-season and stay healthy. He's a legit center and is willing to give up the body and do the dirty work. RayRay and Shard are definately the cornerstones of the team and the Sonics do have a lot of options on the table to get the role players they need to make this a playoff team. Next year should be another great battle for the 7th and 8th seeds with the Suns, Rockets, Sonics and Warriors (if Arenas resigns), fighting to grab those spots. Utah will not be back in the playoffs.</div> yeah james is the one hope at centre - he showed glimpses of his potential after the trade, but he is way too inconsistent and foul prone. i can guarantee however they won't go after payton - the team chemistry was that much better after the trade, and shard came out of his shell without the pressures payton's attitude brings on his shoulders. these things, coupled with payton's comments on seattle management just after the trade will ensure he won't be back. with forte - i'm probly wrong, but i think flip murray is being seen as the guard of the future that forte was at the start of the season. nothing to do with talent, just the list of forte's indiscrecions (refusing to go in the IL to make room for evans, fighting with james in the locker room after singing happily after a loss, getting picked up for pot and handgun possession etc) pose serious questions about his maturity and personality/temperament, especially as a team member. then again with only a year to run, he might get another chance...
