[IMGl]http://espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/med/trans/sea.gif[/IMGl] <font color="Green"> <font size="5">Seattle Sonics Season Preview</font></font> I hope the fans will give me the time to understand the situation, bring some positive changes and have faith that we will make the right decisions. We will put them first, and we will bring a winner back. - Howard Schultz, Sonics Owner -- March, 2000 Four and a half years later we have the 2004-2005 Seattle Sonics -- the NBA franchise that is most likely to implode. Remember the Clippers of 2002-2003. The expectations were tremendous. Fans were thinking not only about the playoffs, but actually winning when they got there. Andre Miller and Elton Brand were to be the 21st century version of Stockton and Malone. Elgin Baylor was finally beginning to earn his pay check and it looked as if Donald Sterling was building a franchise to be reckoned with. BOOM! The Clippers finished dead last in Pacific Division and only ahead of Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference. Not only did they fire their head coach and not rehire his replacement, but they also lost three starters to free agency and had to match the offer sheets from two other teams in order to retain the other two. Why was there a fall out? Management issues and multiple players in their last year of their contracts -- the exact recipe for NBA self destruction. Fast forward to 2004-2005. The Seattle Sonics are coming off a 37-45 season in which they finished tied for 11th in the Western Conference. The team has missed the playoffs three of the past four years. The Sonics fan base is becoming increasingly disenchanted with the state of the franchise. Attendance numbers are at the bottom of the league. All of the coaches and the general manager are in the last year of their contracts. There are rumors of an impending sale from ownership. The Sonics three free agents of 2004 all have new addresses. Starting point guard Brent Barry signed with the San Antonio Spurs, backup shooting guard Richie Frahm was selected in the expansion draft by the Charlotte Bobcats, was released, and signed with the Portland Trail Blazers, and backup forward Ansu Sesay is on the verge of signing with the Golden State Warriors. The Sonics replacements, a high schooler, a Division II workout wonder, and a 30-year old rookie from Turkey. The lone trade this offseason: Calvin Booth to the Mavericks for journeyman forward Danny Fortson. Eight players who are currently under contract will be eligible for free agency in 2005. No wonder there is so much optimism in the Pacific Northwest. This Sonics team is extremely rare considering that 11 of the 14 signed players on the roster have legitimate arguments as to why they should start. The only positions that aren't open for competition are shooting guard and small forward, and even they are being pushed heavily by the players that are behind them on the depth chart. Considering the question marks going into this season, the best way to preview the 2004-2005 Sonics is to have a mock training camp and let the players credentials dictate who will be playing big minutes. POINT GUARDS Luke Ridnour vs. Antonio Daniels vs. Ronald Murray Luke Ridnour 2003-2004 Stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 SEA 69 6 16.1 .414 .338 .823 .50 1.10 1.60 2.4 .75 .10 1.16 1.5 5.5 Salary: $1,531,200 -- eligible for free agency in 2007 [IMGr]http://www.nba.com/media/act_luke_ridnour.jpg[/IMGr]Outlook: Ridnour is the front runner for the starting point guard position despite having the worst numbers amongst his competition. Drafted 14th overall in 2003, Ridnour played limited minutes in his rookie year. He showed flashes of brilliance late in the season when he had 16 points and 13 assists against Steve Nash (the point guard that he is most compared to) and the Mavericks. Too often, however, he was tentative and could not find his groove. Extended minutes will increase his confidence and his productivity but he still remains a large question mark going into the season. Antonio Daniels 2003-2004 Stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 SEA 71 32 21.3 .470 .362 .842 .30 1.7 2.0 4.2 .63 .08 .86 .90 8.0 Salary: $2,200,000 -- eligible for free agency in 2005 Outlook: Daniels fit in well in his first season in Seattle. He started 32 games at point guard and led the league in assist to turnover ratio. He is a tough defender and has a great work ethic. He will, however, be 30 in March and is obviously not our long term solution at the point guard. Daniels will be counted on to have a stable veteran influence on the younger players. Will he be a positive influence in the locker room if he isn't able to play his way into a more lucrative contract? Ronald Murray 2003-2004 Stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 SEA 82 18 24.6 .425 .293 .715 .50 1.90 2.50 2.5 .99 .34 1.82 1.9 12.4 Salary: $695,046 -- eligible for free agency in 2005 Outlook: Murray opened everyone's eyes when filling in for Ray Allen. He averaged 22 points a game in the first month of the season before losing his job to Daniels. His minutes and production dropped dramatically when Allen returned but he still finished third on the team in scoring. Murray primarily played shooting guard last year but when paired with Ray Allen he was able to play the point. Murray has a reputation for being more of a scorer than a playmaker and he also has been called out as being a liability defensively. Murray would rather play the point than shooting guard but it seems as if McMillian feels more comfortable with him backing up Ray Allen and providing an offensive spark off of the bench. Murray comes into camp as the lowest paid Sonic with a guaranteed contract. Breakdown: Luke Ridnour probably will be handed the job despite the fact that he struggled in his first year. Antonio Daniels was dangled all summer as trade bait and may feel slighted if he isn't name the starter. Murray is a tremendous talent but McMillian doesn't trust his decision making. There is obvious pressure on Nate McMillian from the front office to play Ridnour. He is a first round pick, a local kid, and a crowd favorite. The problem is that all of those things do not translate into production. Nate McMillian must have been a marketing major because starting Luke Ridnour at this point seems to be nothing more than a promotional stunt. Ronald Murray has the talent and deserves the spot but Luke will be the man running the show when the season starts. SHOOTING GUARDS Ray Allen vs. Ronald Murray vs. Ibrahim Kutluay vs. David Young Ray Allen 2003-2004 Stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 SEA 56 56 38.4 .440 .392 .904 1.20 3.90 5.10 4.8 1.27 .20 2.79 2 23.0 Salary: $14,625,000 -- eligible for free agency in 2005 Outlook: Ray Allen had an excellent 2004 in his first full season with the Sonics. As the Sonics only All-Star last season he led the team in scoring with a career high average of 23 points a game. Arguably the best shooter in the NBA, Allen also has established himself as one of the best shooting guards in the league. He needs to continue to improve defensively and with his shot selection at times. There is no question that he will be the starting shooting guard, the question is whether or not Allen's contractual status will be a huge distraction to him and the organization. Ronald Murray Outlook: Ronald Murray played most of his minutes at shooting guard last season. He and Allen rarely played together in the backcourt and there were rumors of bad blood between the two. Murray is the best penetrator on the roster and seems to be able to get off a high percentage shot at will. At the end of the season Murray's number was called ahead of Allen's late in games. Although Murray would prefer to play the point, McMillian seems more comfortable playing him at the two. Ibrahim Kutluay Salary: $1,600,000 -- eligible for free agency in 2006 Outlook: Kutluay was recently signed by the Sonics in September. Known as "Ibo", Kutluay has established himself as one of the best guards in all of Europe. His 19 and 26 point performances against the United States Olympic Team in their Pre-Olympic Tour prompted the Sonics to really pursue the 30-year old Turkish native. His shooting is his best attribute and he was signed to soften the blow of both Barry and Frahm's departure. Outside of adjusting to the NBA, Kutluay must improve his defense which is poor even by European standards. David Young Salary: $385,277-- non-guaranteed contract Outlook: Young was drafted 41st out of North Carolina Central University (Division II). He signed and played at Xavier University, but never really made a considerable impact. At NCCU he averaged over 20 points a game. He really impressed the Sonics in predraft workouts with his defense and his outside shooting. He didn't play much in the Sonics summer league but did lead the team in total three pointers. Young must show that he is capable of logging NBA minutes. Breakdown: Ray Allen is the starting shooting guard, period. All of the other players have to find a way to be productive either in limited minutes at the two or at other positions. Ray Allen seemed to be very insecure about Murray's emerging role with the Sonics last season. This relationship will be one to watch during the season. Kutluay was signed because his shooting can really stretch a defense. He will split time between shooting guard and small forward. Dave Young only concern at this point should be to just make the team. SMALL FORWARDS Rashard Lewis vs. Vladimir Radmanovic Rashard Lewis 2003-2004 stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 SEA 80 80 36.6 .435 .376 .763 1.7 4.8 6.5 2.2 1.24 .68 1.69 2.9 17.8 Salary: $7,800,000 -- eligible for free agency in 2010 Outlook: The only Sonic with a lucrative long term contract Rashard Lewis comes into the 2004-2005 season coming off a season in which he didn't improve his scoring average for the first time in the career. He started off the season very strong in Allen's absence scoring 50 points in a win against the Clippers. He was amongst the leading scorers in the NBA in the beginning months of the season. As the season progressed Lewis' role seem to digress. Still one of the better shooting small forwards in the league, at age 25 Lewis is capable of being an All-Star. He must continue to improve defensively and be more assertive on the offensive end. Vladimir Radmanovic 2003-2004 Stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 SEA 77 38 30.1 .425 .371 .748 1.40 3.9 5.3 1.8 1.04 .55 1.42 2.4 12.0 Salary: $2,300,984 -- eligible for free agency in 2005 Outlook: Vladimir Radmanovic comes into his fourth season in the NBA as one of the top shooters in the NBA. The Serbian native has improved steadily every year. Bouncing between the small forward and the power forward positions last year Radmanovic was able to be the team's fourth leading scorer. Radmanovic ended the season as one of the Sonics top reserves and seems poised for a larger role this year. With the additions of Danny Fortson and Nick Collison, Radmanovic will primarily play at the small forward position. He must improve defensively and needs to develop a low post game. Breakdown: Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic are very similiar players. They both shoot the ball exceptionally well for their size and they both provide matchup problems for the opposition. Conversely they both are not strong defenders and they both could improve their low post games. Radmanovic wants a larger role on the team and Lewis seems content being the team's number two option. Lewis seemed to disappear late in games last season while Radmanovic was turnover prone and often tried to do too much. [IMGr]http://www.nba.com/media/act_rashard_lewis.jpg[/IMGr]Lewis will be the starting small forward but his margin for error is not as high as it has been in the past. Radmanovic will be playing for a contract extension that may very well be with another team next season. If his performance in the Olympics is any indication of how he'll play for the Sonics, expect Radmanovic to sign a big deal next season -- with Partizan Beograd in the Serbian League. POWER FORWARDS Reggie Evans vs. Nick Collison vs. Danny Fortson Reggie Evans 2003-2004 Stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 SEA 75 27 17.1 .406 .000 .561 2.10 3.40 5.40 .4 .72 .13 .87 2.30 2.9 Salary: $880,000 -- eligible for free agency in 2005 Outlook: Reggie Evans is a hustle player. Nothing more, nothing less. He defines the expression dirty work. He has proven himself an effective rebounder in his first two years in the league. Known for his physical play, Evans is a popular player in Seattle. He really needs to improve all aspects of his offensive game. The additions of Collison and Fortson will really cut into his minutes. Nick Collison Salary: $1,696,680 -- eligible for free agency in 2007 Outlook: The former Jayhawk star begins his rookie season after two shoulder injuries that sidelined him for all of 2003-2004. A First Team All-American in college, Collison is the type of cerebral player that the Sonics have lacked in the post. Collison is an excellent passer, has a variety of post moves, and is an effective rebounder. He has never been known as a great defender and he needs to shake off the rust after being sidelined for a year. With extended minutes he could possibly be a Rookie of the Year candidate. Danny Fortson 2003-2004 Stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 DAL 56 20 11.2 .511 .000 .815 2.00 2.40 4.50 .2 .21 .20 .66 2.60 3.9 Salary: $5,922,078 -- eligible for free agency in 2007 Outlook: Danny Fortson comes to Seattle in a trade from Dallas that sent Calvin Booth to the Mavericks. Fortson did not play much in Dallas but he fills needs for the Sonics that has been lacking for years -- rebounding and toughness. Known as one of the most physical players in the league, Fortson has twice averaged a double-double throughout a season in his career. Although he has a reputation for being a dirty player, the Sonics welcome his 8 rebound per game career average (in limited minutes) to a team that finish dead last in the league in rebounding. Fortson needs to improve his foot speed and his defense and he has to be more of a presence on the offensive end. He may also have the opportunity to play minutes at the center position. Breakdown: Reggie Evans is the biggest offensive liability in the league, Nick Collison has been amongst the walking wounded for an entire year, and Danny Fortson can't seem to stay out of the dog house of whatever teams' he's on. Collison may very well develop into a quality NBA player but judging from his performance in the Sonics summer league there is still a lot of rust to his game. Danny Fortson needs to get back to being the double double machine that he was for a few years in Golden State instead of being the guy who is known far more for his unnecessary flagrant fouls. Reggie Evans needs to stop hurting his own players in practice. Reggie Evans has been given the starting power forward position early but he is just holding it temporarily until either Collison or Fortson gets a grasp on the offense. Ideally Collison should start at the four but considering how soft the Sonics have been up front since the departure of Shawn Kemp, it seems very likely that Fortson will play a large role in 2004-2005. CENTERS Vitaly Potapenko vs. Jerome James vs. Robert Swift Vitaly Potapenko 2003-2004 Stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 SEA 65 39 21.8 .489 .000 .641 1.60 2.90 4.40 .8 .34 .43 1.18 2.50 7.1 Salary: $6,191,250 -- eligible for free agency in 2005 Outlook: Vitaly Potapenko was the most effective center last season for the Sonics. After not playing much the first two months of the season Potapenko came on strong as the season progressed. A very scrappy player and a good low post threat, Vitaly earn the respect of the coaching staff and the players. He needs to stay out of foul trouble, rebound the ball better, and stay out of South Beach. Jerome James 2003-2004 Stats YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG 03-04 SEA 65 24 15.2 .498 .000 .660 1.20 2.30 3.50 .5 .31 .92 1.26 2.80 5.0 Salary: $4,545,000 -- eligible for free agency in 2005 Outlook: Jerome James started off the season well and really struggled as the season went on. An abdominal strain ended his season prematurely. Jerome really has not met the expectations the franchise placed on him after he played well in the Sonics last playoff appearance in 2002. The most talented of the centers, Jerome needs to improve his defense, his rebounding, and his work ethic. At this point in his career he has vastly underachieved. Robert Swift Salary: $1,641,360 -- eligible for free agency in 2008 Outlook: The Sonics first round draft pick is only the second high school player ever drafted by Seattle (Rashard Lewis being the first in 1998). Swift was an McDonalds All-American last season and was rated the top center in his class in many publications. He needs to put on a lot of weight and learn the NBA game. He has a good jump shot for his size and he competes well despite his age and frailness. Breakdown: None of these players are really impact players at this point in their career. Jerome James was a great shot blocker in college but the only shots that he blocks now are the shots of him getting a good contract following this season. Potapenko plead guilty to disorderly conduct in South Beach Miami, Florida this summer and missed a practice in South Beach last season. Although a bit volatile he was the team's most consistent center last season and will probably start at that position when the season opens. Robert Swift has a lot of potential but is at least a year away from contributing. Needless to say the center position for the Sonics gives new meaning to the phrase "a whole in the middle." OUTLOOK The Sonics have been picked to finish dead last in the Western Conference in many publications. They are entirely too talented to finish that low, but the unstability of the franchise could turn the Sonics into the 2002-2003 version of the Clippers. Eight players financial future is depending on putting up numbers. Nate McMillian's job is dependent upon getting the Sonics back to the playoffs. Although this is a great set up for reality television, this is an absolutely horrible scenario for a franchise on the decline. The 2004-2005 Sonics have all the pieces to finish above .500, but considering the state of the franchise another 37-45 record seems a bit more realistic.
<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Ray Allen is the starting point guard, period.</div> Other than that quote, awesome preview and I agree with most of it.
Great preview Shiek, but I still think you're being harsh on Ridnour. He had some tough games in his rookie season, but he also had games where he showed he can play at this level, and I think it's fair that he does get the first chance in Pre-Season to show his wares. If he's not up to it, I have no doubts that Nate will pull him.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Supersonic:</div><div class="quote_post">I still think you're being harsh on Ridnour. </div> You well know my views on Ridnour, but i don't think he's being harsh at all. He has A LONG way to go before proving himself up to this level, and i'm not sure Seattle can afford to give him a chunk of time at the 1.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Jerry West:</div><div class="quote_post">You well know my views on Ridnour, but i don't think he's being harsh at all. He has A LONG way to go before proving himself up to this level, and i'm not sure Seattle can afford to give him a chunk of time at the 1.</div> That's all well and good, but a bit of a catch 22 in my eyes. You say he has a long way to go to prove himself, but how does he do that without being given a decent chance to do it? I have no doubts Luke has a long way to go, but at the same time I fail to see how Flip is anymore deserving to start at the POINT. Guys like Steve Nash and Carlos Arroyo are regarded as excellent NBA point guards, but how many would have said that after their respective first NBA seasons? Luke had his good moments and his bad, which is the general pattern for a rookie point guard (with some exceptions).
<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Because wherever you're at, you gotta make the best of the situation you're in. Few men have survived and thrived as stand-up guys. They're respected, admired, and even hated on due to their reputation, skills and talents. Like they say, you can't keep a good man down and the creme always rises to the top. But I think Tone sums it up best with his last words that paint a strong message to all his homies in DC and to prisoners all across the nation. Tone keeps it real and inspires hope with this shout out to all. "Remember," he says. "A setback is a setup for a comeback. So don't never give. Don't never give."</div> http://hoopshype.com/articles/washington_ferranti.htm Make your own assessment.
I'm going to leave this up all season people, that way we can check back at various points and see how accurate it actually is/was.
We have a very good chance tonight of clinching the Northwest title so I decided to take a look at my season preview to see how off I was. In the beginning of the season I thought that we would be fighting to have the third best record in this division~Minnesota winning the division and Utah coming in second~and battling for a seventh or eighth seed. Chemistry issues and injuries have really hurt Minnesota and Utah, and I find that ironic b/c I thought that those would be the achilles heals' of the Sonics. Instead our chemistry has been the best in the league, despite our injuries. On a scale from 1 to 10 here are my rankings for our players this season (considering their expectations): Luke Ridnour (8) Pleasant surprise. Initially I thought that there would be no way that he would last the season as the starting point guard but he has proven me wrong. His defensive contributions have really surprised me and his non-assertive nature both on and off the court has really had a calming influence on this roster. The coaching staff still doesn't feel totally comfortable playing him in late game situations, but he has proven himself as a worthy starting point guard and a cornerstone for this franchise. Antonio Daniels (9) The consumate professional. He has handled himself both on and off the court extremely well and his play has reflected that. Not only is he again the league leader in assist to turnover ratio, he has proven himself as a clutch shooter. His defense isn't as good as it has been but that is partly b/c he's played with ligament damage to his knee. He has been the most consistent player on this roster this season. Mateen Cleaves (2) Although Cleaves has had no impact on the court, he has always been the most supportive player on the sideline. He always seems to have encouraging words for players who are frustrated, and he does a good job getting the active players ready to play in practice with their pre-game routines. Cleaves seems to always be around winning programs, which is a testament to his character. Ray Allen (8) Ray is Ray. He's going to get you over 20 a night, no matter how many shots it takes. His percentages are down but his point totals are up. He has proven himself as one of the premier shooting guards in the league and will be the most coveted free agent this off season. His defense and his shot selection remains suspect but he is still the leader of this team. If only he wouldn't remind us of that every time a microphone is in his face. Ronald Murray (4) An untimely injury halted Flip's season before it started. Flip has had a tough time finding his groove in limited minutes but he still has shown to be an explosive scorer in extended minutes. His defense has improved considerably from last year as well. This season he was played exclusively at the two and was unable to showcase his playmaking skills. Throughout this disappointing season for him, he has been praised for showing remarkable patience and focus. Ibrahim Kutluay (1) Quit on the team and returned to Europe in the middle of the season. 'Nuff said. Rashard Lewis (9) Sweet Lew finally has met the expectations that this franchise placed on him when he signed his lucrative deal at the end of the 2002-2003 season. His scoring is consistent, his defense is improved, and his leadership is evident. His rebounding has digressed but that may be more of a testament to Reggie Evans than anything else. He has refined his post game, improved his jump shot, and has become extremely assertive. He was rewarded with his first All-Star selection this season and seems poised to make many more appearances. It seems as if only an injury can keep him from excelling. Vladimir Radmanovic (7) Vlad has continued to establish himself as one of the premier shooting small forwards in the league but he also has shown the ability to get to the rim as well. He was an early sixth man of the year candidate until he was sidelined by injury. He did a great job accepting his role as a sixth man and has put himself in a great position to receive a very lucrative contract this offseason. Damien Wilkins (10) Damien Wilkins was an undrafted free agent who many thought would never play in an NBA game. Despite spending most of the season on the injured list, he was ready when his number was called. Filling in for the injured Lewis and Radmanovic, Wilkins has proven himself to be a great perimeter defender and a reliable scorer. Although he hasn't gotten much action this season, he has proven that he belongs in this league--something that was obviously in question at this time last year. Reggie Evans (9) Reggie Evans has established himself as the best rebounder in the league pound for pound. He leads the NBA in rebounds per minute and has frustrated some of the top post men in the league with his scrappy play. He remains a liability on offense but he is improving. Considering that he only averaged 5.5 rebounds a game last season, Reggie Evans has had a remarkable season and should be a candidate for the most improved player award. Nick Collison (8) Nick started off the season slow as he got adjusted to the NBA game but since he has gotten consistent minutes he's showing everyone why he was drafted in the lottery in 2003. He is solid in all fazes of the game and he does a great job of putting himself in a position to score around the basket. The Sonics have been looking for a legitimate starting power forward since Shawn Kemp left and with Collison they may finally be able to end their search. Danny Fortson (6) Danny was the catalyst for the Supes tremendous start this season. At one point he led the league in rebounds per minute, free throws attempted and made per minute, fouls, and technical fouls. He has brought an element of toughness that we have never had. However, he has not been able to control his aggression this season. He has had numerous blow ups with referees, opposing players, and even Nate McMillian. Fortson, when he is on his game, is one of the most intimidating and effective power forwards in the league. If he is able to control his temper, he brings an element to our roster that few teams have. Jerome James (7) The knock on Jerome is that he isn't consistent. He still isn't consistent, but he has shown flashes of being one of the premier true centers in this league. He can score on the post on anyone who is smaller than him and he has shown the ability to guard the better centers in this league. He is still an atrocious rebounder and you never know if he is going to show up or not but he has improved his attitude and has bought into the team philosophy. Many teams could use a center with the talent of Jerome. Vitaly Potapenko (4) Pot has played well when given the minutes. He was also a victim of an ill timed injury. He hasn't been able to work his way into the rotation but he has kept a positive attitude and has been ready when his numbered was called. He is still an effective low post scorer and will definitely get minutes for whoever he plays for next season. Robert Swift (2) This was a development year for Swift. He got some minutes but wasn't very productive when he got them. He does compete well for his size and will be counted on for production as a reserve next season. This season's team has really surpassed everyone's expectations. As the playoffs arrive I'm hopeful that this trait will continue. What are your ultimate thoughts about my predictions and your predictions for this 2004-2005 season?
I like how undrafted guys or second rounders shine with Seattle. Last season, it was Murray and Frahm, and this season it's Wilkins. The Sonics GM really has a great eye of evaluating little-known talent.
