[IMGl]http://espn-att.starwave.com/i/teamlogos/nba/sml/trans/mia.gif[/IMGl] <font size="3">The Heat is on </font> For the Heat, it has been one huge off-season. At the end of last season, Miami had found themselves bounced from the playoffs after a 42-40 season, a huge turnaround from the 25-57 mark they had posted the year before. No matter how they finished the end of the season, one thing is for sure, Miami had made a huge turnaround from last place in their division to a fourth seeding in the playoffs. I don?t care what anyone says, that is a great turnaround. Whether Miami can make it any further into the playoffs is going to depend primarily on O'Neal. They may be in the weakest division of an already weak eastern conference, however, there are still a couple teams, namely the Pacers and Pistons who can hold their own against western conference teams and are still likely to be in a better position to take the east than the Heat will be. Even with that in mind, the Heat have made some very smart moves that should have them ready to be a very much improved team this year. Off season moves The Heat did one of the best jobs in the NBA this off season even if you only consider the acquisition of O?Neal In perhaps the biggest NBA trade since the Nets sent Dr J. to the Sixers. Beyond that, they have also added Christian Lattner, Michael Doleac, Wesley Person, Damon Jones and Keyon Dooling. And, they have done all this while being over the cap leaving little if any room to maneuver. Starting 5 The starting five on this lineup is something that might be in flux once the season starts. There will, of course be a couple no-brainers in the starters however. [quoteright]<font size="1"> Center: Shaquille O?Neal.</font>[/quoteright] This is probably the easiest, no thought required pick I have ever had to make. ?nuff said. And does anyone really need for me to break down O'Neal's game? I didnt think so... [quoteright] <font size="1">PG: Dwyane Wade.</font>[/quoteright] Wade had a good showing last year and had a good showing at the Olympics. Turnovers are a real killer for Wade though. He was able to pick up some help from Larry Brown during his Olympic stint, but he is still going to have to work a lot more in order to make sure he keeps his turnovers down. [quoteright] <font size="1">SG: Eddie Jones. </font> [/quoteright] Jones started 81 games last season for the Heat and there is no reason to think that he wont be starting at the 2 spot in the upcoming season. While he didn?t have his best season ever last year, he also didn?t have his worst. Jones made a solid contribution with 17.3 ppg, 3.2 apg, and hit 38% from 3pt range. He also was able to commit fewer turnovers at 1.59 compared to 1.81 the year before when he only played in 47 games. [quoteright]<font size="1"> Who do you start? The 12 year journeyman who hasn't started in some time? </font><font size="1"> or the young guy that has only started 28 games in his entire pro career?</font>[/quoteright]Here is where things get a bit dicey. At the 3 and 4 the Heat have a corps of backup players but no clear cut starters. At the PF, I would have to start Laettner, if only because of the experience he has in starting. When comparing the two, Haslem has a better PPG average and better rebounding numbers while Laettner has better assists, blocks, FT% and FG average (but that average is only 46.5 against Haslem?s 45.9, not a lot of difference between them). They are pretty evenly matched and either one of them could start which is why at least during the beginning of the season, Laettner should get the start based solely on his experience. [quoteright] <font size="1">The choices at the 3 will wind up between Person, a 10 year veteran and Butler, a third year man who didnt see a lot of time on the floor last year</font>[/quoteright] At the SF, the Heat don?t have a lot to work with. The clear choices are Person or Butler. Person hasn?t started a game since he was in Memphis for the 02-03 season and Butler is a second year man who has started a total of 28 games, none of which were in the prior season. I would have to go again with Person and the experience along with his slightly better stats over Butler. Stat Production The Main production is obviously going to come from O?Neal, Wade and Jones. Look for O?Neal to wind up having his best year since 99-00 when he went for 29.7 PPG and 13.6 RPG... that is, assuming he is going to be able to stay healthy. He may not be able to reach those exact same numbers, but he will be somewhat close. There is something to be said for having something to prove combined with such encouragement as the Lakers provided him. Wade was able to put up 18ppg in the post season last year and with the added focus that O?Neal is going to bring, Wade and Jones should be able to have some big games. Wade should be able to keep his PPG around there for the season and his APG should increase to around 5.1-5.5 a game. Jones last year had a 17.3 PPG avarage which will probably level off just a bit, say around 16.5 PPG. But still thats not bad. As for Lettner and Person, they are not going to look like stellar numbers, but the good news is that they dont really have to as long as O'Neal Wade and Jones play to their potential. Laettner should put out about 10-13 PPG and about 5.5 RPG. Person should be able to get closer to his career avarage than he has in the past four season at about 9.5-10.5 PPG and maybe kick his APG up a bit to 2.5 per game. While they were able to come up with some talent that is not bad, the bench doesnt have a lot to shout about. Doleac and Zhizhi, will be able to step in for O'Neal in only limited minutes, If Doleac has to start in place of O'Neal, they are going to have a bit of a defensive liability. They can both score, but are not able to defend. The same might be said about Wallace. He can rebound, shoot and has some good moves, but is unable to really play defense. Behind them are a large amount of rookies and veterans who may be useful in just plugging a hole, but are clearly not going to be up to a starting position on this roster. Keys for Success <ul> [*]Get the ball down low to O?Neal and let him do his thing. That?s easy isn?t it? [*]Keep the turnovers to a minimum. [*]Keep away from bad shot selections [/list]Not a lot in that department for the Heat this year. sticking to fundementals and avoid making mistakes is the biggest things the Heat has to take care of. Wade is going to be one of the biggest concerns here strictly because of his turnovers. He is going to have to get them under control or the Heat are going to find a lot of the teams they must beat sneaking back into it late in games. Final Words The Heat should come in somewhere along the lines of 50-32, easily getting into the post season and winning their division. Shaq has a HUGE chip on his shoulder this year and he is going to play up to the moniker he has earned over the years- the 'MDE' . As long as he stays healthy and doesnt decide to take a vacation in the middle of the season, there is no reason to think that he can't play to that level especially given the state of the division the Heat play in. I don't however, think that this team is one that is going to be able to the Finals. They might be able to stay even with Indiana, but Detroit is going to be more than they can handle. In fact, I am going to go out on a limb here and say as long as O'Neal stays healthy, they are one of my early picks for the ECF series (along with Detroit), but will loose that series in 6 games.
I thought a starting 5 of Jones-PG, Wade-SG, Jones-SF, Haslem/Laetner-PF and Shaq-C would have been good.
Great article I really must say. I agree with in for the most part, and I do expect the same ECF matchup as you suggested. Bravo!
great review...but i think udonis haslem will become the regular PF around THE all star break, as laettner has a reputation of being less durable at the season, and i think indiana will beat miami simply because they have proven to be the best, and have a very strong team chemistry, while the heat has yet to show its prowess. it will be a very interesting season though with all the changes in the NBA.
