Who do you guys think will have a breakout, or surprisingly good, year that people may not consider when trading or drafting? I was thinking a lot of Bobcats, besides Wallace since it has seemed to have gotten around about his probable breakout year, like Brezec, House or Hart. Some others that proved themselves last year that will probably get the minutes this year, like R. Murray. Another that I'm hoping (mostly since he's on my team) will have a good year is Jarvis Hayes. Thoughts?
There are a lot of players "assumed" to break out, and those are probably what you're not looking for, since everyone has notice of them. Thus, I guess you are looking for what most people would consider a longshot? As far as the Bobcats, I think that there's not a high chance that Wallace, Brezec, Okofar and Hart all will make some fantasy impact. Usually, there's only 2-3 players who can really target on a team. Only so many players can give a real impact, and even starters with minutes won't always give great numbers. I think Hayes has potential, but it might get wiped out when Kwame and Thomas are healed up and start getting minutes, putting Antawn at his spot. If he steps it up early and keeps it up, he's worth a shot. There are a lot of underrated players. But they are underrated for a reason - either injuries, age, or questions about playing time. Obviously, don't overrate these players, but they'll be worth late picks. Picks like Jamaal Tinsley, Derek Anderson, Jeff McInnis, Jonathan Bender and Raef Lafrentz are all bound to have solid seasons. Depending on what kind of performances you're looking for, people like Joe Smith, P.J. Brown, and Kenny Thomas get overlooked for their rebounding contributions. And there are always injuries opening up more minutes for replacements for last year starters like Mike James and Rafer Alston. There are some slightly less underrated players, too. Guys like Eddie Jones, Michael Finley, Donyell Marshall and even Doug Christie, Jim Jackson and Damon Stoudamire have age and rotations against them, but they'll probably end up putting up decent numbers; not what they got last year, but not the decline in rankings that I've seen Yahoo put up. The only true breakouts (a high risk, high reward guy) I think are 1) Luke Ridnour (If he gets minutes, he might be a surprise, but considering he still hasn't won the battle against Daniels, it's not even certain he'll get minutes), 2) Earl Watson (stuck behind Jason Williams in the deep Grizzlies rotation), and 3) Jiri Welsch. Only Jiri is sure to get minutes, and his numbers depend heavily on what positions that have him play. As for the other two, if they get minutes, via luck, injuries or trades, I would expect something good out of them. Still, that doesn't raise the draft value on them much higher (except on Welsch) but it at least gives you someone to look for.
Carlos Arroyo. He was handed the starting role last season, taking over from John Stockton. He did a good job for someone adjusting from benchwarmer to starter. He played extremely well for Puerto Rico vs. USA in the Olympics and led them to a surprise win. He will defintely imrpove from last season, and could be on the verge of a big breakout. If Raef Lafrentz stays healthy, he could be a great fantasy pick. He has had injuries throught his career, and shown glimpses of what he could become. He has had a good preseason so far, and if he manages to stay injury free could have a career year.
Reckon people are overhyping the Charlotte group. If you're expecting a Brezec to suddenly become a legit fantasy option, you're going to be disappointed. Breakout will be Al Harrington. He's ready to become a star, and will get every opportunity.
There are a ton of players that are going to "breakout." Here are a few off the top of my head... Drew Gooden- He's finally getting his chance to start. The last few years he has been used as a backup forward, but now with the departure of Boozer, Gooden will step in and get the job done. He already is leading the team in rebounds through 5 preseason games. Gerald Wallace- Very verstile, and like Gooden, he has came off the bench his whole career. Wallace has potential wrote all over him, and I suggest you give him a look come draft time. Mike Dunleavy Jr- He had a very disappointing season last year, and will be looking to turn it around. Very good rebounder from the SF position, he averaged 6 last year, but his scoring hasn't looked good. Expect to see Dunleavy as one pf the top outside shooters this year. Corey Maggette- Maggette has already been an elite scorer in the NBA. He plays in the other "LA" so he doesn't get the props he deserves. This year he doesn't have to worry about competing with Q-Rich, so expect to see some excitement from him this year. Primoz Brezec- Primoz has great upside for his 7'1 size. He has great skills inder the basket, but has never been able to show us. He'll be the obvious choice at center for the Bobcats. Expect to see double digit scoring and rebounding from him.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting petitt33:</div><div class="quote_post">Expect to see double digit scoring and rebounding from him.</div> Each to their own, but you're in for a heap of disappointment if you honestly expect Brezec to average 10+ boards a night. Let's be realistic people.
With the starting job, Marc Jackson got a bump from never-draft to late-late-round pick. He's worth 12 points and 7 rebounds a game if he gets 30 minutes a night, with an assist and a half a steal/block per game. Not a major breakout, but worth considering compared to other forward/center picks really late (after, say, Chris Kaman or Michael Olowakandi, and before you dip down deep for Chris Mihm or Udonis Haslem).
So who should i pick on my bench, Jiri Welsch or Jim Jackson... I'm mostly looking for a good shooter who can pass... who can shoot and pass better Welsch or Jackson... 3 pt shooting is weakon my team sofar...
If it's 3 point shooting, Jim Jackson. Although McGrady will take the bulk of the long range shots, Jim should still get about 100 over the season. Jackson also has Yao to crowd up the paint and throw it out to the open man, and thus will get open chances. Jiri will get some threes too, but he's not as confident yet in taking them.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Jerry West:</div><div class="quote_post">Each to their own, but you're in for a heap of disappointment if you honestly expect Brezec to average 10+ boards a night. Let's be realistic people.</div> Why can't he gets 10 points, 10 rebounds a night.... He's on a very weak Charlotte team that has no one to really back him up. he going to get 35-40 minutes a night, and he should be very productive in those minutes.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting petitt33:</div><div class="quote_post">Why can't he gets 10 points, 10 rebounds a night.... </div> Do you realise how few players average a double double in this league? There were only 9 players in the entire league who averaged 10 and 10, each of them has much more talent than Brezec. Yao Ming didn't even average a double double last year.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Mr.Wade:</div><div class="quote_post">So who should i pick on my bench, Jiri Welsch or Jim Jackson... I'm mostly looking for a good shooter who can pass... who can shoot and pass better Welsch or Jackson... 3 pt shooting is weakon my team sofar...</div> Jimmy is the better shooter by far, will hit at least 1 trey a night. Jiri is a much better passer, and will have the ball in his hands more than Jimmy. Personally i'd take Jim Jackson, but it really depends on your roster.
Brezec is 7-1, with great post moves. He is also an agressive boarder. He's performed great in preseason also in limited minutes. Getting 35-40 minues a game on a depeleted Charlotte team... a dobule doubel should be easy for Brezec... Lets be real, Okafor can't play offensive very good, and Wallace is the only real perimeter threat. Inside is all Primoz.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Mr.Wade:</div><div class="quote_post">a dobule doubel should be easy for Brezec... </div> A double double isn't easy for legitimate superstars, let alone relative stiffs like Brezec. As for impressing in limited minutes, hell, Slava Medvedenko impresses in junk time.
Although I'm on the side that thinks Brezec will be a productive fantasy starter, I agree that double-double is more than he's going to get. He'll have some very bad nights and a few good nights. In the end, my projections are for 8 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocked shots a night with an average number of turnovers. If you compare this to other starting centers in the league, you see that it's above average in terms of rebounds, average in terms of blocks, and a bit under average on points. This is still valuable enough for late round pick, considering the relative scarcity of C's.
