He has a good shot providing he doesn't get injured again. Our recent improvement in games without him may detract from his chances as opposed to earlier in the season when we got smashed in each game. Still, he has to get past LeBron in the voting, and that won't be an easy task.
Nash should be MVP IMO. The Cavs got really lucky when that brawl broke out between Detroit and Indy. Now with Detroit full strength they are taking control of the division like expected in the off-season. That's why I don't buy the 'Look how high LeBron has lead the Cavs in the East' arguement. The numbers speak for themselves when Nash is playing, and when he isn't.