Bubble breakdown

I just sent this article I wrote in a private message to the admins, in case they let me be a writer, but I thought I would post it here now while it is still time relevant.

As for NCAA hoops, right now I have been doing a lot of bubble breakdown. I'll include a big write up I did right now, since it's timely. You can put this up on the site any time you feel like it if you're interested, you have my permission. Let me know if you like it or want more. Here is my bubble breakdown:

It's March.

What more needs to be said? Sunday saw an outstanding slate of games as a prelude to championship week, and it feels like tournament time already. College basketball fans planted in front of their TV were treated to North Carolina clipping Duke with a late blitz and Ohio State shocking the nation in beating #1 Illinois, just to name a few of the great games this weekend.

But the four teams in those games all have something in common. None of them are breaking a sweat as the heat increases this time of year on the so-called "bubble teams." That's because Illinois and UNC are practically assured of 1-seeds, Duke is safely into the tournament, and Ohio State has been stamped with a self-imposed postseason ban.

But there are plenty of teams that do have to worry about such things, and we're going to take a look at them. Too many bubble analyses give team profiles without choosing between them. Too many bubble analyses say "if this team wins a game in their conference tournament, they should be in" without checking to see if there are actually enough spots in the big dance to accomodate these teams. Here, we are going to breakdown how many slots there are, which bubble teams make the cut, and which are getting cut.

The situation is that the tournament has 34 at-large bids, and 21 are already "locks," according to ESPN.

Lock teams: 3 ACC (UNC, WF, Duke); 5 Big East (SU, BC, Pitt, UConn, Villanova); 5 Big 12 (KU, OSU, OU, TT, Texas); 3 Big Ten (Illinois, MSU, Wisconsin); 3 CUSA (Cincy, Louisville, Charlotte); 4 Pac-10 (Arizona, Washington, Stanford, UCLA); 5 SEC (UK, Bama, MSU, Florida, LSU); and then 6 midmajors (Gonzaga, Pacific, Southern Illinois, Utah, Nevada and St. Mary's).

That's 28 teams, but each of the seven major conferences listed should be sending an at-large "lock" to the tournament via their conference tournament championship, and thus as an automatic bid, rather than an at-large.

34 at-large spots. 28 "lock" teams already getting their bags packed. That's six remaining slots, plus the seven additional spots as "lock" teams claim automatic bids, barring any dramatic upsets. That leaves 13 spots unclaimed, assuming the mid-major "locks" win their conference tournament. But Southern Illinois didn't. St. Mary's didn't. And that brings the total available dance tickets down to 11. If Pacific, Nevada or Utah lose their conference tournaments, the number will continue to dwindle. If they do lose, bubble teams are hoping it will be to another strong bubble contender, so that there will be minimal impact, with the slot going to a team already with a strong chance to be invited.

So who are these bubble contenders? Let's get started with the analysis, and break down who is getting the 11 available spots. I am going to go ahead and say the following teams are already "locks":

1. Georgia Tech 17-10 (8-8), RPI: 38, SOS: 20
Respectable computer numbers and a good finish in the ACC, so despite 7 of those conference wins coming from Miami twice, FSU twice, Clemson twice, and Virginia, I think they have little to stress about.
2. Minnesota 20-9 (10-6), RPI: 46, SOS: 72
10-6 in the Big Ten and a 20 win season, plus a decent RPI means they really aren't a bubble team and really should be moved into the "lock" category.

We've just given away two golden tickets, but tickets #3 through #11 still remain. Here are the squads that will be competing for those eight spots, as listed on ESPN's bubble watch:

Maryland [16-11 (7-9), RPI: 49, SOS: 8]
Miami [16-11 (7-9), RPI: 56, SOS: 13]
NC State [17-12 (7-9), RPI: 88, SOS: 107]
Virginia Tech [15-12 (8-8), RPI: 116, SOS: 119]
West Virginia [18-9 (8-8), RPI: 65, SOS: 131]
Notre Dame [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 75, SOS: 70]
Georgetown [16-11 (8-8), RPI: 92, SOS: 79]
Iowa State [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 62, SOS: 88]
Texas A&M [17-8 (8-8), RPI: 67, SOS: 125]
Iowa [19-10 (7-9), RPI: 51, SOS: 57]
Indiana [15-12 (10-6), RPI: 66, SOS: 18]
DePaul [18-9 (10-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 102]
UAB [20-9 (10-6), RPI: 64, SOS: 147]
Houston [18-12 (9-7), RPI: 83, SOS: 94]
Marquette [18-10 (7-9), RPI: 84, SOS: 3]
Vanderbilt [18-12 (8-8), RPI: 60, SOS: 34]
Vermont [23-6 (16-2), RPI: 23, SOS: 96]
Miami (OH) [17-9 (12-6), RPI: 27, SOS: 52]
Northern Iowa [20-10 (11-7), RPI: 34, SOS: 47]
Buffalo [19-8 (11-7), RPI: 35, SOS: 101]
Wichita State [20-9 (12-6), RPI: 37, SOS: 104]
Kent State [17-11 (11-7), RPI: 39, SOS: 32]
Akron [17-9 (11-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 73]
Holy Cross [24-5 (13-1), RPI: 45, SOS: 204]
UTEP [22-7 (14-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 151]
Ohio [17-10 (11-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 100]
Davidson [18-8 (16-0), RPI: 61, SOS: 110]
Saint Joseph's [17-10 (14-2), RPI: 78, SOS: 105]
George Washington [19-7 (11-5), RPI: 80, SOS: 195]
New Mexico [22-6 (10-4), RPI: 87, SOS: 298]
Western Michigan [17-10 (11-6), RPI: 89, SOS: 89]

In my opinion, even a quick glance will tell you the following teams are out, barring a deep run in their conference tourneys replete with some big wins (and the committee never seems to weigh the tournaments that much since they simply don't always have time).

Miami [16-11 (7-9), RPI: 56, SOS: 13]; 0-5 in vs RPI top 25 and losing ACC record
NC State [17-12 (7-9), RPI: 88, SOS: 107]; bad RPI and losing ACC record, no marquee win
Virginia Tech [15-12 (8-8), RPI: 116, SOS: 119]; wretched RPI and horrible overall record, several bad losses
Georgetown [16-11 (8-8), RPI: 92, SOS: 79]; bad RPI and losers of 5 straight
Iowa [19-10 (7-9), RPI: 51, SOS: 57]; good non-conference but losing record in Big Ten is a no
Arizona State [18-12 (7-11), RPI: 63, SOS: 103]; why are they even listed?
Davidson [18-8 (16-0), RPI: 61, SOS: 110]; conference tournaments aren't fair, are they?
Marquette [18-10 (7-9), RPI: 84, SOS: 3]; 7-9 in a conference with dozens of 10-6 bubble teams

If your team is listed here, sorry, they did not make the first cut. Cue the Oompa Loompas. But don't lose hope, the ACC teams and Georgetown still can play their way in if they manage to shake things up in their conference tournaments.

Even after these cuts, however, we've got 24 teams left to choose from and just eight golden tickets remaining. Here is the next round of winners:

3. Iowa State: They've been hot as of late despite two late losses, and 9-7 in the Big 12 with several marquee wins gets them in despite shaky RPI
4. Indiana: 10-6 in the Big Ten. This team is a tricky one to figure out because they have so many losses overall, but strong play recently and that Big Ten record says in to me.
5. Notre Dame: Not a spectacular team but fit the at-large profile

If your most hated team is listed here, sorry, they made the cut. They got a golden ticket. But don't lose hope. Any of these teams losing early in their conference tournaments could put them in jeopardy, especially a team like Indiana, for whom a first round loss would bring back memories of their early season funk.

Now it's getting really tough. We have six tickets left, but even that is only if things go right in conference tournaments, or we could see the last few teams accepted to the dance suddenly turned back out. As long as we're being negative here, let's continue the trend and pop a few more bubbles.

George Washington [19-7 (11-5), RPI: 80, SOS: 195]; let's just say 11-5 looks bad when there's a 14-2 team also on the bubble in St. Joseph's
Western Michigan [17-10 (11-6), RPI: 89, SOS: 89]; nothing to distinguish these guys from the rest of the MAC bunch, bad RPI
Houston [18-12 (9-7), RPI: 83, SOS: 94]; beat Louisville, but lost last two conference games to fall out of a likely invitation
Vanderbilt [18-12 (8-8), RPI: 60, SOS: 34]; these majors were just too middle-of-the-pack in my opinion
Texas A&M [17-8 (8-8), RPI: 67, SOS: 125]; too middle-of-the-pack, romped through weak non-conference schedule
Holy Cross [24-5 (13-1), RPI: 45, SOS: 204]; simply too small a conference, they might deserve it but those precious slots don't go to Davidsons and Holy Crosses
Ohio [17-10 (11-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 100]; too many 11-7 teams in the MAC, and this one is coming off a blow-out loss to Kent State
Akron [17-9 (11-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 73]; another 11-7 MAC team, this one was blown out by Ohio one game before Ohio went on to get destroyed by Kent State
Wichita State [20-9 (12-6), RPI: 37, SOS: 104]; lost three times to Creighton, lost to Miami OH in bracket buster, 4-6 in last 10
Vermont [23-6 (16-2), RPI: 23, SOS: 96]; I don't think a team with an RPI like this has been left out often, so they should be in, but no big wins, a coach gave up on at-large bid by resting starters in a loss before the tourney, it seems like they are out in reality without a tournament championship.

So tickets #6 through #11 will go to one of the following remaining teams, listed here in order of RPI.

Miami (OH) [17-9 (12-6), RPI: 27, SOS: 52]
Northern Iowa [20-10 (11-7), RPI: 34, SOS: 47]
Buffalo [19-8 (11-7), RPI: 35, SOS: 101]
Kent State [17-11 (11-7), RPI: 39, SOS: 32]
UTEP [22-7 (14-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 151]
Maryland [16-11 (7-9), RPI: 49, SOS: 8]
DePaul [18-9 (10-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 102]
UAB [20-9 (10-6), RPI: 64, SOS: 147]
West Virginia [18-9 (8-8), RPI: 65, SOS: 131]
Saint Joseph's [17-10 (14-2), RPI: 78, SOS: 105]
New Mexico [22-6 (10-4), RPI: 87, SOS: 298]

Let's take a deep breath and dive in.

6. Miami (OH): They have a great RPI and were sole winners of their conference. They got it done in the bracket buster and I'm going to give them the nod, but they still must follow up that painful Marshall loss with a few wins in the conference tournament. They are 17-9 with an RPI of 27.

7. UTEP: They've had a strong season in a good conference. They lost the bracket buster against Pacific, but this second place team from the WAC can rest as safe as possible for a team in the precarious "Last Teams In" group. They are 22-7 with an RPI of 48.

8. Maryland: They have a couple of wins over Duke the likes of which none of these teams can boast. However, other than that their resume is pretty slim, including a sub .500 ACC record that could have been avoided if they had not been swept by Clemson and finished with a loss to Virginia Tech. If they lose to Clemson a third time, they're done. They are 16-11 with an RPI of 49.

9. Northern Iowa: I don't see them getting the same consideration everywhere, but they do have a solid profile. A very good RPI, and they also beat Southern Illinois in one of their meetings. They were unfortunate to suffer one-point losses to Creighton in both their meetings and run into an inspired Southwest Missouri State team in the MVC conference tournament, after beating them twice in the regular season. They are 21-10 with an RPI of 34.

10. Buffalo: This team is the only one in the MAC other than Miami to really stand out. The surprising Bulls finished the season strong, winning 6 of 7, including a win over Akron. That is big, because besides Miami and Buffalo, Akron was the only other team in the MAC to have under 10 losses. They have already won their first conference tournament game. They are 20-8 with an RPI of 35.

11. New Mexico: Keep in mind, a few of their losses came with their best player hurt, and the committee can be forgiving when it comes to that. The win over Utah recently helps, but they can't really be at ease with the worst RPI of all at-large teams I am selecting and a very bad SOS (298). They are 22-6 with an RPI of 87.

Snubs:

West Virginia. They can avenge this snub with a few wins in the Big East tournament, which should actually make things look rather rosy, but for now, that loss to the Hall has sent them on a direct line from heaven to the hell. Both might be better than the purgatory Northern Iowa is sitting in, however, as the lowest rated team not to have any games remaining, with nothing but waiting. Depending on how far West Virginia, New Mexico, Buffalo and the CUSA teams go, they can all leap over Northern Iowa or other tournament losers, including perhaps each other.

Conference USA. Between DePaul and UAB, DePaul beat Cincinnati but lost at UAB in second to last game and only match up. These two teams are too close to separate, but in the end, neither got in with my scenario. If they do well in their conference tournament, however, either could jump in at the expense of one of the last teams in.

St. Joseph's. I hate leaving these guys out with the way they've dominated the A-10, but their pre-conference play just did not leave any choice. They will probably need to win their conference tournament.

 

Looks like the article was posted too soon, Notre Dame will have to pray they make the NCAA after to losing to Rutgers who is 2-14 in the Big East which is sad. West Virginia will make the NCAAs after their stellar performance against BC. BC has just struggled, they went from cloud nine to left behind if u kno what i mean. Maryland is NIT bound too. Gilchrist hasnt showed up yet, shot a measly 4-17 or somethin with single digit scoring but he brags and boasts like he's the man. GILCHRIST STEP UP PLEASE!

I'm really pushin for VA Tech tho, they have a very young and talented team who dont show up at times tho. They lost early to some questionable teams but they win when it counted, Miami, Maryland, Duke, GA Tech, so they should at least be given a chance.

Indiana and Iowa State are bad choices in my opinion. Indiana has been an up and down team too but they dont deserve a bid. They lost to Charlotte by 1, shoulda never happened, they lost to Northwestern by 21, a 10-14 team, come on now, lets be fair about it but I give it to Indiana cuz they did play 8 teams that are currently ranked and went 2-6 against them....

Iowa State is still celebrating the Kansas win. They lose two back-to-back games against A&M (19-8) by 15 and Nebraska by 7 who they beat by 5 earlier in the season. Come on now, you're giving them a bid off two wins against Oklahoma St and Kansas, what about the other teams? Missouri (15-15), Kansas St (16-10, 6-10 in Conference), Colorado (13-15)? They played well during the season but I question why they're being picked.

 

Good reply. I'll argue with you on Indiana and Iowa State in a minute, but first, how about your comment that the article was posted too soon? Well, obviously it's outdated now, but that's why I've written Part II. Part III will come Sunday, either after the Selection Show or as a two part - predictions before the show and analysis after.

Here's the new article:

The most shocking part of Wednesday and Thursday's action was the realization of just how close these bubble teams are. Before Wednesday, I had West Virginia out of the tournament, one of my "I'm sorry, but..." snubs. Now, after impressive wins over Providence and BC, they're one of the first bubble teams in, and nearly "lock" status. And this jump with two wins. However, it's important to remember two things about these conference tournament games:

1) Look at Notre Dame, for example. Notre Dame's loss to Rutgers was just one game during the course of a 28-game season. Keep that in perspective when deciding whether or not that loss ends the Fighting Irish tournament hopes.

2) It does. It does end their tournament hopes, because with so many teams breathing down their neck going into conference tournament play, and with the aforementioned extremely thin margins of separation, one bad loss can spell doom for an at-large hopeful.

Last time, I told you who would be in and who would be out by actually looking at how many spots were available for the contending teams, and then filling those slots in, instead of just declaring a batch of teams NCAA worthy without regard to the limited space. Here were the very last 11 at-large invitations as I projected before Wednesday's games with this method:

1. Georgia Tech
2. Minnesota
3. Iowa State
4. Indiana
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami (OH)
7. UTEP
8. Maryland
9. Northern Iowa
10. Buffalo
11. New Mexico

Again, that was the old pecking order. Here's how it looks now:

1. Georgia Tech
2. Minnesota
3. Iowa State
4. West Virginia
5. Indiana
6. Miami (OH)
7. UTEP
8. Buffalo
9. New Mexico
10. Northern Iowa

Dropped out: Notre Dame, Maryland
New: West Virginia

So what has happened in the last two days, and how has that changed the tournament landscape? Why does the list now look the way it does? First off, notice that we've only got 10 spots now, leaving Northern Iowa out by default. This is thanks to the Nevada loss, and now without an automatic berth, they are taking an at-large spot from the field. There is hope, though: If UTEP, already projected in here by my ranking, wins the conference tournament, we can remove them from the at-large list, opening a spot back up for another team.

Let's review some more of the recent action:

Some teams really helped themselves. The aforementioned West Virginia was one of those teams, coming up with a huge victory against BC. Other teams stayed alive by padding another win onto their record. NC State, Iowa State, Iowa, UAB, Miami OH, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Ohio, UTEP, St. Joseph's, George Washington and New Mexico were among those teams. None got the win that will put them over the top, but Iowa State is almost there. NC State, Miami OH, UAB, UTEP and New Mexico are the next tier.

As much as these games are mixing the bubble pecking order up and murking up projections, at the same time, the picture is managing to get a little clearer.

If you remember our big list of tournament hopefuls, you'll realize now that it's a little smaller. Take, for example, the following teams:

Maryland: Previously one of the last teams in and with a chance to improve from there, they lost to the Clemson Tigers for the third time this season yesterday. The end of the year is not a good time for a slide, but the Terrapins have lost 5 of 6, the lone win a 2OT triumph over lowly Virginia.

Miami FL: These guys were a long shot at best, and an opening round loss in the ACC tournament seals the deal.

Georgetown: The Hoyas pulled out a win in their opening round game, and gave the Huskies an admirable fight, but beating UConn was just too tall an order for this team. They did not play their way out of the big dance, but they failed to play their way into it.

Texas A&M: Like Miami FL, Texas A&M needed to make some serious noise to give themselves a chance at an at-large berth. Instead, they flopped in the opening around against Kansas St.

DePaul, Marquette, Houston: DePaul lost on a heartbreaking last second three pointer by UAB. It wasn't much, but their second loss to UAB these season means the committee probably cannot take them. Meanwhile, longshots Marquette and Houston both lost games they shouldn't have to TCU and South Florida.

Vanderbilt: Like Miami FL and Texas A&M, they needed to do something to improve their chances, and losing to Auburn probably wasn't it.

Kent State, Akron: Six teams in the MAC finished tied for second at 11-7. These two, along with Toledo, who already were out of consideration, were the first two out of the conference tournament.

Now, for a look ahead. Let's revisit the current list.

1. Georgia Tech
2. Minnesota
3. Iowa State
4. West Virginia
5. Indiana
6. Miami (OH)
7. UTEP
8. Buffalo
9. New Mexico
10. Northern Iowa

Knocking on the door here are NC State, VT, UAB and Notre Dame, and next in line are St. Joseph's, George Washington, the MAC pack - Ohio and Western Michigan, and finally longshot Iowa. As long as everyone else keeps winning, finished Northern Iowa and the ice-cold Notre Dame keep falling.

Everyone is aware of all the high number of ACC teams on the bubble, so let's examine the ACC tournament for a second. Georgia Tech appears to be solidly in right now. And Virginia Tech appears solidly out. If GT beats VT, that will be confirmed, but what happens if Virginia Tech gets the win? Can you let GT in the tournament, and keep out the Hokies, when they finished even in the conference and just went on to win a head-to-head match up? If NC State gets the big win over the Chris Paul-less Wake Forest, does that get them in? What if both those things happen - will we then see six ACC teams in the Big Dance? Perhaps: those scenarios would really mix things up, and could put all three teams on their way in, but it will also leave all three teams very nervous. We can't be sure what the committee will decide in that situation, but we can be sure that it's imperative for Virginia Tech and North Carolina STate to win.

Likewise, Indiana must win today. I have them solidly in the field of 65 right now, sitting comfortably in bubble #5. But we saw how quickly Notre Dame dropped out, and Indiana will fall even faster with all the heavy baggage their season is carrying.

Today might bring more questions, or it might lead to more answers. It might be both. What we do know for sure is that it will be another great day full of intense college basketball. We'll take another look at where all these teams stand after the dust settles on Sunday.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting JayManHawk15:</div><div class="quote_post">Indiana and Iowa State are bad choices in my opinion. Indiana has been an up and down team too but they dont deserve a bid. They lost to Charlotte by 1, shoulda never happened, they lost to Northwestern by 21, a 10-14 team, come on now, lets be fair about it but I give it to Indiana cuz they did play 8 teams that are currently ranked and went 2-6 against them....

Iowa State is still celebrating the Kansas win. They lose two back-to-back games against A&M (19-8) by 15 and Nebraska by 7 who they beat by 5 earlier in the season. Come on now, you're giving them a bid off two wins against Oklahoma St and Kansas, what about the other teams? Missouri (15-15), Kansas St (16-10, 6-10 in Conference), Colorado (13-15)? They played well during the season but I question why they're being picked.</div>Iowa State is easy to defend, because their profile is SOLID. A winning record in the Big 12, the #2 conference this year according to an official statement from the selection committee, pretty much puts them in. Yes, they lost a couple of games after their strong run, but they still finished the conference 9-7. They still have quality wins over Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas. Over their last 10 games, they are 8-2. I have to say, there is no way this team does not get in.

Indiana is another story. First of all, they did not actually lose to Charlotte, as replays show Charlotte's game-winner was clearly after the buzzer. But that's part of their early season struggle, anyway. If you look at their Big Ten record, 10-6, you will get a better idea of how they have been playing lately. I think only one 10-6 Big Ten team has ever not made the tournament. They're a young team, so they matured as the season went on, and showed it by winning 4 of their last 5 games. They lost at the last second at Wisconsin, an almost impossible place to win, and they beat Michigan State during that stretch. Their two most recent losses, to Illinois and Ohio State, both came when their leading scorer Bracey Wright was out with an injury. Last time they played Minnesota, they won by 15, but I do think it is vital that they win again. If they lose this time, then they will be in jeopardy because their great play lately will be forgotten and people will remember their early season struggles.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting shapecity:</div><div class="quote_post">Great summary Fast Luck.

I expect Holy Cross to make it to the Big Dance this year. They dominated the Patriot League and finished with a stellar 13-1 record. The team finished with a 24-5 record and came within 2 buckets of defeating Boston College (who was ranked #7 at the time.) They have won 16 straight games and will face Bucknell for the Patriot League Title. If they take the title they deserve a 'Golden Ticket' into the tourney.

Also with a lot of other Bubble Teams being eliminated early in Tournament play, their chances increase. Notre Dame, Maryland, and UCLA.</div>Ah, don't get me started on the Saders, they really strikes a nerve with me (as a die hard American University fan). Hehe, but anyway, either Holy Cross or Bucknell will be a good representative of the PL this year. Whoever wins, it will be better than Lehigh last season, when it should have been AU. I don't think HC stands a real chance at an at-large bid if they lose, but if they win I think they should get some respect, and seeded well enough that they have a chance to win their first game. Year in and year out they've shown they're being underrated by the committee: as a 16-seed, leading #1 Kansas in the second half; as a 12-seed, coming down to the last minute with a near upset of the Dwyane Wade led, Final Four bound Marquette; a couple years earlier I think they gave Kentucky a scare. If they are given a respectable seed like from 9 to 11 then they might actually win a game, and Ralph Willard is a great coach. If Bucknell wins, though, they have a real, big-time player in Chris McNaughton and good guards to back him up. Ahh, PL hoops overload!

 

NC State will beat Wake Forest without their court general Chris Paul...unless they get the ball to Williams, if Williams scores 20-25 points, they'll win...if not, NC State will win this one without a Chris Paul fall away buzzer beater...NC State has been a very weird team this year...they went 7-9 in the conference, lost by 1 to VA Tech...blew em out by 20 at season's end...lost to VA by 2, beat em by 10...they've been a who shows up tonight team but if they seal a win tonight...they're in the NCAAs

As for VA Tech, see ya in the NITs. They were a disappointment today and their guards were left in the locker room. Lost by 21 with Gordon and Dowdell combining for 17 points...BJ Elder's return was good timing...he scored 19 points in his return and locked GA Tech a spot in the NCAAs. GA Tech has also been an up and down team but avenging their early loss to VA Tech has sealed them a bid to the NCAAs.

Bucknell will win the PL championship. Their team has been a surprising 21-9 coming off a 16-15 season last year. I see them crushing Holy Cross and waltzing into the Big Dance. They dont have a high RPI but they did open eyes in their 3 point win against Pitt.

[UPDATE] Iowa State is a questionable choice now after losing their lead to TX Tech and losing by 8. They handled TT in the regular season but TX Tech handled them while only 4 IOWA STATE PLAYERS SCORED THE WHOLE GAME. Call me crazy but its impossible to win like that!

 

Today the selection committee finally unveils the brackets, setting off printers across the country and kicking off the first week of the 2005 NCAA tournament. The committee's choices will be analyzed by millions of eyes and criticized for leaving the wrong teams out, for seeding teams wrong, for overloading certain parts of the bracket. It's not an easy job, although I would not go so far as to say it's unenviable, since there's plenty of people who would love to be in that room when the decisions come down. In the end, the committee usually does a great job, but it's never easy. Just continuing analyzing the bubble teams from my previous articles, I'll attempt to predict who is in and who is out. Since tournament action just ended, and the brackets are being revealed in under an hour, this article is not going to be timely for long. That is why I'm going to start it short, just with my list of "in" teams before the actual results are announced, then finishing up by looking at the actual selections.

You'll remember Nevada lost their conference tournament, taking away one of the original 11 slots. But UTEP, who I already had in, ended up winning the automatic bid from the WAC, clearing up an at-large spot. The same went for the Mountain West, where Utah lost in the conference final to New Mexico, but to a New Mexico team that would have likely taken an at-large spot anyway. The one tournament winner that is going to hurt the bubble teams is Utah State, who would not have been in if they had not upset Pacific, and who take away one more at-large spot, hence the reason we only have 8.

Bubble teams I think should be in, 30 minutes before the Selection Show on CBS begins:
1. Georgia Tech - Great run in the ACC tournament puts them well over the top
2. Minnesota - Win against Indiana assures them a bid
3. West Virginia - Great run in ACC tournament puts them well over the top
4. Iowa State - Did just enough to hang onto their spot
5. NC State - Wins over Florida State and short-handed Wake Forest should bring this team back into the tourney
6. Iowa - They have stabilized after losing Paul Pierce, and big wins should get them in
7. UAB - The win over DePaul should do it
8.

Notable automatic entries: New Mexico, UTEP, Utah State

The final slot is where it finally gets really tricky, and could go to any of the following teams: Indiana, Notre Dame, St. Joseph's, Northern Iowa, Buffalo or Miami OH. If Iowa is in at 7-9 in the Big Ten, it is unfair for Indiana to be out at 10-6. However, if the Hoosiers could have beaten Minnesota or just lost a few less games pre-conference, they wouldn't be in this position. St. Joseph's, like Indiana, had a great conference season, but did not do what they had to do in the tournament, and had too many losses pre-conference. It's a shame for both those teams because they really have been playing great ball lately.

Buffalo lost in a heartbreaker to Ohio in the MAC conference championship, just one game after Ohio beat Miami. It's hard to decide which of these two teams has a better resume. Buffalo is 8-9 against the top 100 RPI, but 1-5 against the top 50. Miami is 8-8 against the top 100, 3-4 against the top 50, but has two losses outside the top 100. I would have to take Buffalo, because they have been the better team lately, 8-2 in their last 10 compared to Miami's 5-5.

Northern Iowa has not played in over a week, but remain very much in the picture. Notre Dame gave themselves a self-inflicted black eye with their early Big East exit, but still have a strong resume.

In the end, I would give the very last dance ticket to...

8. Buffalo
And the last five out:
9. Northern Iowa
10. Miami OH
11. Notre Dame
12. Indiana
13. St. Joseph's