Details: When: Sunday, March 27th Where: KeyArena, Seattle Time (Seattle): 5:00 P.M. TV: Fox Sports, League Pass Projected Starters: <font color="green">Seattle (48-20) </font> Luke Ridnour Ray Allen Rashard Lewis Reggie Evans Jerome James <font color="navy">Washington (37-30)</font> Gilbert Arenas Larry Hughes Jared Jeffries Kwame Brown Etan Thomas Injury Troubles: <font color="green">Seattle</font> Mateen Cleaves: Sprained thumb, ruled out. Vladimir Radmanovic: Stress fracture in leg, ruled out. <font color="navy">Washington</font> Brendan Haywood: Fractured thumb, ruled out. Antawn Jamison: Knee tendinitis, ruled out. Jarvis Hayes: Fractured patella, ruled out. Peter John Ramos: Plantar fasciitis, ruled out. Brief Notes: <ul> [*]Seattle puts a five game winning streak on the line as the Wizards roll into the Key intent on taking the season series. The equation is simple for the Supes; a win or a loss by 9th placed Minnesota will seal a playoff spot. [/list] <ul> [*]The Wizards are missing one of their two All-Stars to injury in Antawn Jamison, however Larry Hughes would have been in the game had he not gotten injured himself, and he's back to complete the most explosive backcourt in the league, bar none. Seattle's two All-Stars were huge against New York too, combining for all 14 of their overtime points (Allen 8, Lewis 6). [/list] * Useful/less stat of the day: Friday's win was the first Seattle 40-30 combination since Shawn Kemp scored 42 and Gary Payton had 33 against the Clippers on December 10th, 1994. That one went to double overtime and I have no idea if we came away with the W. * Word of the Day: Reintarnation; v: coming back to life as a hillbilly. "You could forgive one for thinking Casanova Swift was a result of reintarnation. Random Family Guy Quote Peter: Make like Siamese twins and split ... and then one of you die. All predictions, analysis and discussion relating directly to the game, both before, during and after, to be posted in this thread.
This will be my first extended look at Kwame Brown, who is absolutely horrible. Any team that is stupid enough to offer him a lucrative contract this offseason should fire their GM and consider recruiting an outside group to buy out the ownership. Why no one has really gone on the record saying how much of a bust Kwame is shocks me. He was the first pick in the draft. In the last ATF I should have put that Michael Jordan's most memorable moment was drafting this clown b/c at that point everyone knew that Michael had no future in a front office position. You can't talk about waiting on his development when high school forwards such as Stoudamire, Curry, Chandler, and even Al Jefferson have already surpassed him. What a joke. I hope that the Wizards small ball doesn't hurt the Sonics tonight. Big test for Luke tonight b/c Arenas is as aggressive as they come at the point. Should be interesting.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Iron Shiek:</div><div class="quote_post">This will be my first extended look at Kwame Brown, who is absolutely horrible. Any team that is stupid enough to offer him a lucrative contract this offseason should fire their GM and consider recruiting an outside group to buy out the ownership. </div> Sounds like he would be a great Trader Bob pick-up if he still held the reigns in Portland. Maybe Isiah will finagle a sign and trade for Brown, NY is always looking for under-achieving highly paid bigs.
Yep then the Knicks could play Kwame next to Maurice Taylor, who has to be one of the worst PF in the league. If I have to see this 6-9 260 PF dancing with the ball 20ft from the basket and putting it between his legs one more time I'm going to be ill. Plus he averages like 3 rebs a game, even when he got minutes. I literally cannot watch this guy play.
Well not much to say. Rashard looked pretty gimpy on his bad knee. Critical turnovers by Daniels and Allen late in the game that led to some key pts for the Wiz. Collison played well although he missed some gimmes. Wilkins provided much needed energy and hustle points. I'm really not sure why on the last possession we only got one look. We should've taken a quick shot so in case of a miss we can still foul and get possesion back for a 3. Larry Hughes played great, exactly the kind of defender that gives Ray Allen fits. Props to him.
I'm going to blame this game on Nate McMillan. Rashard was doing horrible, Damien came in and played twice as well, but Nate still put Shard out there early and late on a bad knee. How awesome does Damien look, though? If he keeps playing this well, Radman can take a walk. Well, he can take a walk anyway, but now we'll slam the door in his face.
Terrible job of managing the game again tonight. I honestly think that Nate feels that his contract status with the Sonics is dependent upon Ray resigning. Do all of our important possessions have to go through Ray? I'm sorry everyone, Ray is not a great clutch player. He has a difficult time getting a high percentage shot on his own. That is why he is constantly calling for our bigs to get him open. Why we continue to give him the ball in an isolation set befuddles me, especially considering that we could have gotten a two for one situation late in the game. Like Roland Hood said, when you are down by one you come out with a good set so that you have a chance for an open look, a tip in if you miss, or a quick foul so that you can get another chance to tie or win the game. Instead Ray got stripped deep into the clock and we got a 30 footer from Daniels. We aren't getting out in transition any more either. We are a half court team that doesn't have a legit penetrator (in the consistent rotation anyway) or a reliable post up threat. There is a reason why we don't get any assists. We are either playing pick and shoot basketball or getting offensive rebound put backs. No one is getting easy looks in the half court any more and we aren't running at all like we used to. If we are going to commit to Luke Ridnour being our starting point guard we better play to his strength. His strength are pushing the ball in transition and defending other point guards 94 feet. If Nate is abandoning that philosophy than Luke has in essence turned into a undersized shooting guard who is relegated to shooting half way open jump shots. He is even falling into the trap of calling for the bigs to pick for him and just shooting. We got a great effort again from Damien Wilkins. I'm glad that he's been able to contribute especially considering how Rashard looked tonight battling his knee injury. Why Nate would continue to play 'Shard when he was obviously hurting and ineffective puzzles me, but what is even more puzzling is how we can't grab a rebound when both Collison and Evans are on the sidelines. Jerome James and Rashard Lewis have to be the worst defensive (and offensive) rebounders for their size in the league. 'Shard use to crash the boards, but now I think that he takes for granted that one of our other bigs is going to get the rebound. I hate to break it to him that he has to get in there especially when Danny and Vlad are out of the lineup. I know that I'm ranting and we have won five of our last six but those five wins all came against teams that will not be in the playoffs. All of those wins went down to the wire, too (and most of them were at home). This three week span has been the worst that we've played all season and this wouldn't be the time to start developing bad habits. I love the fact that Nate is coaching these games like we are fighting for a playoff berth, but at the same time he needs to start putting players (not named Damien Wilkins) in a position to help our team succeed in the postseason.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Casual:</div><div class="quote_post">I'm going to blame this game on Nate McMillan. Rashard was doing horrible, Damien came in and played twice as well, but Nate still put Shard out there early and late on a bad knee. How awesome does Damien look, though? If he keeps playing this well, Radman can take a walk. Well, he can take a walk anyway, but now we'll slam the door in his face.</div> Damien was nice last night. Played GREAT defense, and got inside to score a couple of times. I think Nate kept Lewis in there because of his shooting. Even on the gimpy leg he was hitting the mid-range jumper and he got an early 3. Damien missed a slew of open jumpers...but he was smart enough to stop hoisting them and take it inside.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Iron Shiek:</div><div class="quote_post">Terrible job of managing the game again tonight. <<snip>> I'm sorry everyone, Ray is not a great clutch player. He has a difficult time getting a high percentage shot on his own. That is why he is constantly calling for our bigs to get him open. Why we continue to give him the ball in an isolation set befuddles me, especially considering that we could have gotten a two for one situation late in the game. <<snip>> </div> Ray has shown great clutch play on many occasions. Trouble is that Lew and Vlade help set him up for the clutch shot. With Vlade out and Lewis gimpy, the defense just collapses on Ray making it virtually impossible. Add Fortson camping out under the rim for the put back and he gets more space, but we all know why we don't have that benefit at the moment. Nick almost got it for us though. There really are only two players on the team who have proven to be clutch players who can ALSO get off their own shot. Lewis and Vlade have hit clutch shots off someone else's effort to penetrate and kick it out. Only Ray and Flip can break down their man and get enough space to hit that clutch shot. I would think that would earn Flip a substitution in the final play to at least make the defense think twice about doubling/tripling down on the ball. Without Flip on the floor EVERYONE knows where the ball is going. If they are both in there, you can draw up a play to keep the defense guessing. Options, options, options. Ray had a good primary defender and nowhere to go or pass. There was no Danny in there to set a hard screen either. We miss that. They have drifted away from the pick and roll and hard screens of early in the year. JJ, Reggie, and Fortson would send guards to the floor throughout the first half, and then the guards had extra inches late in the game. I think it is time to bring it back. It was being defended well, but they haven't leaned on it for so long it is time to throw it in and mix things up a bit. IMHO at least.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting psheehy:</div><div class="quote_post">With Vlade out and Lewis gimpy, the defense just collapses on Ray making it virtually impossible.</div> The only person collapsing on Ray last night was Larry Hughes and someone who is requesting a 90 million dollar contract extension should be able to get off a high percentage shot on Larry Hughes. ...and stop him from getting 31 points.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Iron Shiek:</div><div class="quote_post">The only person collapsing on Ray last night was Larry Hughes and someone who is requesting a 90 million dollar contract extension should be able to get off a high percentage shot on Larry Hughes. ...and stop him from getting 31 points.</div> Hughes leads the league in steals. He is tall, quick and committed to defense. One game against one player does not have any value in a multi-year salary discussion. As I recall (though I have deleted the game from my TIVO now) Hughes picked up Ray outside the 3 pt line and Ray tried to get past him in the lane...blue shirts converged from both sides leaving Ray stuck in the key with nowhere to go and Hughes slapped the ball away. My point was that had Vlade and a non-gimpy Lewis been camped by the 3 pt line with Fortson (or Collison) bodying up under the basket it would have forced a spread defense leaving room for Ray (or Flip had he been the one with the ball) to pump fake and drive. Without them there the defense sagged into the paint and cut off the lane. Ray could have made a different decision with the ball, and I don't claim the one he made was the best, but I contend that he made a decision that has worked in the past against good defenders (kobe for one) but here it could NOT work. Ray is still a great player, and just because a good player like Flip doesn't get the PT he may deserve does not mean that Ray is not worth a solid contract. I don't think he is worth $90M, but then, I don't think ANY b-ball player should be worth $90M. I think that players who want to win should work their contracts with their GM's to leave room open to sign the right pieces to make winning probable, not just possible. I think Ray should take less and even have a say in what the team might need as a condition of taking less. As Reggie Miller has shown, commitment to your key player can payoff even as they get older, EVEN if they are a 2 guard. I think Ray would accept a lesser role over time, deferring to Lewis and then coming of the bench for Flip (or whoever) as he gets older. He can be like a Dale Ellis in the winding down of his career shooting key threes in clutch situations. He may even put up his age in points when needed by injuries. He seems like the kind of "person" who would return loyalty in kind. I think the Sonics should up their current offer and add incentive bonuses (like they did with Lew) to compensate the player for better than expected seasons. I think Ray's agent needs to back off a demand for maximum contract. That is just a request to walk away from the negotiations.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Casual:</div><div class="quote_post">Did you just compare Ray Allen's situation to a hall of famer's?</div> I didn't compare his career to a hall of famers career. That wouldn't be fair. I used Reggie as an example to show that a 2 guard committed to fitness can still contribute into his late 30's as long as he allows his game and his role to adjust as time goes on. Reggie started by deferring to Jalen Rose, then to O'Neal and finally as a bench option behind Jackson and Artest with O'Neal as the primary scorer. Only time will tell if Ray has that same commitment AND willingness to adapt with the team with time. I just don't buy into the line that guards are fodder after 30 and why sign them to long term contracts. But if you look at Rays 9 years against Reggies 1st 9, they are pretty comparable (scoring, assists and steals) with Ray being the better shooter and Reggie the better rebounder. They are both shooters with a strength with the 3 ball. Reggie is MUCH more of a clutch shooter than Ray. They already have the same number of all star appearances. Ray has shown a commitment to fitness similar to that of Reggie's and I say he COULD age in a similar fashion. Reggie's scoring really fell off in his 13th and 14th years.
I have several problems with your analysis. 1) You ARE comparing Ray to a hall of famer. Saying one of the all time great shooters kept playing well after 30 is hard to compare to anybody. Especially since... 2) Their games are completely different. Reggie doesn't need the ball in his hands all of the time to score. He comes off screens and shoots right away. Ray doesn't shoot very quickly, but he can get away with it because of his jumping, which will be harder to do as he gets older. Ray also can't get open like Reggie. Once his athleticism is gone, his whole game will suffer unless he makes a dramatic change, which... 3) Ray has resisted doing the entire season. He insists on having the ball in his hands even when he's not the best scoring option. That coupled with his outspoken media antics show that he and Reggie are very different in demeanor. 4) Lastly, I've never heard of Ray's committment to fitness. Where have you?
Another thing I noticed about Sugar Ray - when they trap him off the pick and roll he tends to back up to get away from the pressure and lose his balance. Also, his dribble just seems extremely high, and coupled with his penchant for dribbling into traffic and he's been having some really bad possesions lately. I don't know if we don't have an outlet ready for him but it'd be wise to have someone attached to Ray, like a string as my old coach used to say.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Casual:</div><div class="quote_post">I have several problems with your analysis. 1) You ARE comparing Ray to a hall of famer. Saying one of the all time great shooters kept playing well after 30 is hard to compare to anybody. Especially since... 2) Their games are completely different. Reggie doesn't need the ball in his hands all of the time to score. He comes off screens and shoots right away. Ray doesn't shoot very quickly, but he can get away with it because of his jumping, which will be harder to do as he gets older. Ray also can't get open like Reggie. Once his athleticism is gone, his whole game will suffer unless he makes a dramatic change, which... 3) Ray has resisted doing the entire season. He insists on having the ball in his hands even when he's not the best scoring option. That coupled with his outspoken media antics show that he and Reggie are very different in demeanor. 4) Lastly, I've never heard of Ray's committment to fitness. Where have you?</div> There is no doubt that they have different games. I don't think Ray needs the ball in his hands either. He was very effective with the Bucks off the ball. As the number 1 option on this team he tends to keep hold of the ball more than he should, especially when in the clutch. Reggie is THE master at running of screens to get open, with Rip Hamilton being the only youth in the game trying to follow in the master's footsteps. Ray has had few "media antics," compared to most NBA stars. Reggie has matured his attitude in recent years, but when younger had a rep as a "bad" boy. He disparaged teams and players in the press and got into it with fans during games (mostly in the MSG). In the past five years Reggie has become a distinguished elder statesman of the NBA...in his youth he did not have that same demeanor. Ray has been at a very low body fat ratio ~4% according the archives on the Seattle Times. I verified one article and remember others as well. Ray is also particular about his diet and has offered dietary tips for young players to keep their bodies primed for the game (jr. nba site). AGAIN...they are not the same player. I don't intend a comparison. Reggie is just the oldest SG still contributing at the moment. Dale Ellis continued to contribute 10+ppg for years after his prime and his last couple of years he still dropped a key 3 ball here and there. Steve Kerr came into the playoffs in his final year and hit clutch 3 after clutch 3 when called upon. A good shooter can transition into a sixth man and then a key role player in the rotation as he ages. He has to have the right attitude and the right system to make that happen. I am just saying that it is short sighted to say that guards are only good until they are 32 or whatever the arbitrary number is these days. GP could have put up better numbers in a different system (one without Kobe) last year, and this year he is ACTIVELY deferring (too bad he refused to do it in Seattle). Unfortunately for GP he was a junk food junkie for years, and didn't change his diet/fitness program until his last two years in Seattle. He surprised many, though, by putting up his usual numbers for that year and half. I am sure there are others, but I don't have the energy to research them all. Is it your contention that Ray has no shot at being a hall of fame player? Do you think that he is for some reason unworthy of being given the benefit of the doubt that he could age well in the league?
<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Dale Ellis continued to contribute 10+ppg for years after his prime and his last couple of years he still dropped a key 3 ball here and there. Steve Kerr came into the playoffs in his final year and hit clutch 3 after clutch 3 when called upon. A good shooter can transition into a sixth man and then a key role player in the rotation as he ages. </div> Well that's the thing about his contract. I doubt Howard/Wally/Rick (and, well, me) want to pay a 35yr old backup shooting guard 17 million for 10 ppg, especially when there's a good chance he may not accept the role. And now that you mention Dale Ellis, I saw a stat on FSN that said that he had something like ten 40 + pt games for the Sonics, and back to back games of 42 and 49. I forgot what an awesome shooter he was. Too bad he couldn't dribble.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Roland Hood:</div><div class="quote_post">Well that's the thing about his contract. I doubt Howard/Wally/Rick (and, well, me) want to pay a 35yr old backup shooting guard 17 million for 10 ppg, especially when there's a good chance he may not accept the role. And now that you mention Dale Ellis, I saw a stat on FSN that said that he had something like ten 40 + pt games for the Sonics, and back to back games of 42 and 49. I forgot what an awesome shooter he was. Too bad he couldn't dribble.</div> No doubt. Who wants to pay anyone $17M at that age... I don't think the $90M requirement is realistic, but I think the Sonics should up the $70M offer and build in incentives to reward Allen if he exceeds expectations in later years. Denver offered K-Mart a front loaded contract...why can't the sonics do that with Ray? Give him better money at the start of the contract and make him earn it with bonuses in the later years. It seems fair to me. Dale rocked in his day. He led the league in career three pointers made back 98 and is still number 2. Reggie passed him in 98/99. Ray is less than 300 shots off Dale's career mark, and 1200 off Reggie's. Ray is the only active player close to Dale with a real shot to take his slot. Van Exel isn't going to make it past 5th and Ray will take Nick's slot next year. Dale was quite the shooter and even broke 30pts a couple of times in 1996 after 13 years in the league (around 33/34 years old). Retired in the 99/00 season. R
I think Ellis was the first guy I remember seeing coming off a screen and just firing right off the catch. That damn Michael Cooper used to slide around screens and get right on his shooting hand.
