As we wind down to the playoffs, Mockford LOL and I will be going through each prospective free agent this offseason on the roster, and getting everyone's thoughts on them. This is in terms of value to the team, likelihood that they'll be a Sonic next season and where else they could end up. Radmanovic will be a restricted free agent. Strengths: Range, anyone? Hanging on the perimeter more than the referees, Radmanovic's shooting ability creates havoc when it comes to mismatches against power forwards. He's also improved greatly when it comes to driving to the basket and not taking such ill-advised shots. His acceptance to coming off the bench shows great maturity on his part, and it's resulted in a lethal sixth man for the Sonics. Weaknesses: He's really only good at shooting threes. While he can be a good rebounder and defender, he rarely exerts the effort needed to be either thing. The mismatch problems disappear when Rashard exits the game and he's faced with a small forward that can keep up with him on the perimeter. Unlike Rashard, he can't back down his opponents well and his handle isn't good enough to take anybody except maybe Shawn Bradley off the dribble, but his long range bombing tends to overshadow his lack off options. Unfortunately, when he's not hitting them, his entire game suffers and he becomes dead weight on the court far too often. Importance to the team: Moderate. If he comes off the bench and starts draining threes, the Sonics are nigh-unbeatable. In fact, earlier in the season they seemed to lose every single game in which Radmanovic wasn't shooting most. With his decreasing effectiveness and the surprising play of Damien Wilkins, it's becoming more and more evident that while he can win games, he might not be as vital as previously thought. His lack of role-playing characteristics such as defensive intensity and rebounding are more suited for a starter than a bench player. Chances he'll be back: Marginal. If somebody offers him a starting job, he'll take it (as well he should). He's stated that he'd like to stay in Seattle, but nobody expects him to sacrifice playing time for sentimental value. He is a restricted free agent, but with the type of contract he'll likely garner, the Sonics would be risking an awful lot to pay that money for a bench player, even one that can play starter minutes. His cause is hurt by Rashard Lewis, who has proved to be the better player beyond all doubt. It's possible that the Sonics will be tempted to resign him if Ray Allen leaves, as Radmanovic could help fill the need for a three point threat, but it's unlikely that would be enough to convince management to pay up. The other possible situation is Radmanovic taking the qualifying offer and staying put for one more year in order to become a restricted free agent in 2006. I wouldn't be suprised to see this happen, because it wouldn't be a bad one on his part. He's still young and can afford to wait a year. Prediction: 1) A team offers him a bloated contract and the Sonics let him go after flirting with the idea of matching it. The Cavs will almost certainly take a hard look. 2) He takes the qualifying offer. I'd say it's 50/50 between the two right now. If he can only garner a modest contract on the market this year, he'll likely be too wary of the Sonics matching and return to Seattle for one year. If he gets overpaid, which happens an awful lot in the NBA these days, he'll take money and run. Although he can be deadly, his shooting isn't consistent enough to sink that much money on him when you already have Rashard Lewis.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Casual:</div><div class="quote_post">The Cavs will almost certainly take a hard look. </div> I actually don't see the Cavs taking a hard look at him. The guy they're mainly interested in would be Michael Redd. In order to get him, it's very likely they're going to have to dish out a max contract, and that's going to take up a nice chunk of their summer cash they could dish out. So, unless Vlad Radmonivic isn't going to ask to be overpaid (like every other big guy in this league), I don't see him landing out in Cleveland.
I think that Radmanovic is as good as gone. He has accepted the role of 6th man this season because he wanted to put himself in the best position that he could in his free agent season. Had he complained his market value (and minutes) would have dropped. I don't think that he'd be interested in backing up Sweet Lew for the duration of his next contract, and I don't think that the Sonics will want to delve out a lot of cash for a reserve player. The bad part about this is that the Sonics have put him in the best position to succeed. As Casual mentioned, he's a matchup problem for power forwards but not for small forwards. It may be difficult to fully grasp all of his limitations b/c he isn't playing starters minutes. If Vlad isn't surrounded by players who can draw double teams (either in the post or through penetration) he is very ineffective. I think that a good team for him would be the Philadelphia 76ers only b/c I think that Vlad would benefit from the amount of attention that Iverson gets. As a four in the east he wouldn't have to guard the better power forwards on a consistent basis and his ability to play multiple positions could give Chris Webber more incentive to stay in the post. For the record, if Vlad does sign a qualifying offer he would be an unrestricted free agent in 2006, not restricted. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sonics go on the record as saying that they will match any offer sheet in hopes that Vlad (who doesn't seem to want to remain a Sonic long term) signs a qualifying offer with them. That would give the Sonics one more year of Vlad at a discounted rate and they could use him for trade bait if they were unsatisfied with his production. Rick Sund is a shrewd guy, don't put anything past him.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Iron Shiek:</div><div class="quote_post"> For the record, if Vlad does sign a qualifying offer he would be an unrestricted free agent in 2006, not restricted. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sonics go on the record as saying that they will match any offer sheet in hopes that Vlad (who doesn't seem to want to remain a Sonic long term) signs a qualifying offer with them. That would give the Sonics one more year of Vlad at a discounted rate and they could use him for trade bait if they were unsatisfied with his production. Rick Sund is a shrewd guy, don't put anything past him.</div> ^ This is what I think the most plausible situation is. With Vlade being a restricted free agent this year, it would make sense for Sund and Co. to snag him for an extra year. I doubt any team will offer Radman enough to deter the Sonics from matching the offer. That options sounds like the best for Seattle and Vlad would be in pretty much the same situation he's in this season which he has been doing well in.
I think Shiek is spot on the money with this one, no pun intended. The bottom line is whatever we pay Vlad, we'll be paying him to be a 6th man. I'm happy to give him a 5-6 season deal at around 40 million,- that's only because I think he has a lot of improvement left in him - but if Vlad's management is worth their salt, I doubt they would risk signing him to an offer sheet elsewhere in that price range. Qualifying offer seems the go I reckon, unless someone like Charlotte offers him biggish money. I would have said Cleveland earlier in the season, but with Welsch on board with Pavlovic and Jackson, I don't see the point when they'll be going after a big-name two, and probably want to re-sign Z.
I have mixed feelings with Vlad. This season he has played great games but he also has faded totally. But looking back to Olympics 2004, where he was terrible I think he needs to succeed constantly for not to fade off or fall into depression. I like his game, when he is playing good basketball but he isn't worth over 40 mill for 5 years in my eyes, just like Pwn3ed said.
...and thus we draft Sean Banks or Shawne Williams. Either way, we will now which first name our draftee will have, which is far more efficient.
