Technically the first round isn't over yet, but you know that we're all thinking about the second round match up. Who do you guys want? Although the Spurs are almost certain to win the series, I'm still hoping for the Nuggets for a few reason. The most obvious reason is the homecourt advantage, it's hard for opposing teams to win at the Key. The other reason is Tim Duncan. As good as our bigs have been at avoiding foul trouble this post season, that will end against San Antonio. Duncan gets much more respect from the refs than the Kings' big men do, and won't get frustrated as easily by Fortson and Evans. Collison has no chance guarding him, and I doubt James will continue his scoring run against Duncan. Also, I know that Luke is going to get eaten alive by Tony Parker. So many more reasons, but I'll wait for some responses before I continue.
Asking Sonics fans this question is like asking a horny teenager wether he wants sex or a snog It's seems pretty obvious who the Sonics would rather avoid.
We have to worry about beating the Kings first. And there is no way that the Spurs are going to lose three in a row to any team in this league, let alone the Nuggets.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting AllNet:</div><div class="quote_post">Asking Sonics fans this question is like asking a horny teenager wether he wants sex or a snog It's seems pretty obvious who the Sonics would rather avoid.</div> Obvious, but this is for discussion. Besides there are plently of reasons why the Spurs would be a better match up. The main reason would be that like the Spurs the Sonics don't run much, so there's no tempo issues. Especially since we have a young pg who wouldn't be able to control tempo. Also, I worry about the match up with Carmelo more than one with Bowen. Bowen may hold ray to 23pts rather than 33, but he isn't going to score much. But if we played the Nuggets who would guard Carmelo? Not Shard with his tendonitis, not Vlad or Reggie because they lack agility. As professional as Ray is, he might be taken out of his game in an attempt to fued with Karl. So actually there are plenty of reasons why the Spurs could be better.
Regardless of who we play, we'll need to play a whole lot better to advance. Rashard will need to play more consistent and Vlad especially will need to raise his game. We're going to need that extra weapon against the much better defense of the Spurs/Nugs. And it's a big question as to whether the Big Anabolic will continue his dash for the cash. From a pessimistic point of view if we have to lose I'd rather lose to a class act like the Spurs rather than Drama Queen George.
I think the nuggets will have a little run near the end, but the spurs will more then likly pull through.
With Bowen on Ray, Rashard should get more open looks. Neither Ginobli or Barry can guard him. I am hoping the extra time off will give the coaching staff time to find how to handle Parker better. They kept Peja and Bibby under "relative" control for at least 3 out of 5 games based on good scouting. Lewis kept Peja going to his left while Ridnour/AD and the bigs kept Bibby going to his right, and that disrupted their games. Well, at least it disrupted Bibby, who despite two good nights had his worst playoff series ever. Peja has never really HAD a good playoff series. Even in game 5, they shut down Bibby and Peja in the 4th when it really mattered. If Parker can't get it going the Spurs will sputter. I think he has to be the Sonics focus.
Welp, looks like the Spurs. Expected, really, but I wish it woulda gone another game or two. Anyway, like Doug Collins said, with Bowen on Ray Allen someone has to guard Rashard. It's crucial for us that Vlad be that guy to play off the double team that they'll throw at him. And it'd be nice if the Big Anabolic could play Timmy straight up so we're not running at Ginobli and Parker all night. As good as Collison is defensively he doesn't have the wingspan to bother Duncan down low.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Roland Hood:</div><div class="quote_post">And it'd be nice if the Big Anabolic could play Timmy straight up so we're not running at Ginobli and Parker all night.</div> The only problem with that is that James will most definitely get in foul trouble that way, he doesn't get the same calls from the refs that Duncan does. I just hope that he can be as agressive offensively as he was in the first series, maybe get Duncan in foul trouble.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Jurassic:</div><div class="quote_post">The only problem with that is that James will most definitely get in foul trouble that way, he doesn't get the same calls from the refs that Duncan does. I just hope that he can be as agressive offensively as he was in the first series, maybe get Duncan in foul trouble.</div> If Jerome can give us a GOOD 20-25 MPG id be pretty content with that. By good that means bringing all aspects he brought into the Kings series.
Interesting thing that I had not yet thought about. The Sonics beat the Spurs when the Sonics were at full strength. The two losses had Ray Allen out in January which meant Bowen could focus on Rashard, and had Rashard, Vlade and Fortson out at the end of the year, which meant that there was no one to punish the Spurs for putting Bowen on Allen. Game 1 in Seattle: Allen 24pts 6rbs 2steals Lewis 27pts 5rbs Fortson 15pts 13rbs Vlade 15pts 2steals AD 14pts 4assists Luke 6assists 2steals Game 2 in Texas: Allen 29pts 4rbs 3assists 4TO Lewis 16pts 5rbs 2steals 2bs 5TO AD 14pts 4assists 3rbs Danny 14pts 6rbs Vlade 5pts 7rbs Game 3 in Texas: Lewis 9pts 6rbs Luke 6pts 4assists 2steals Vlade 13pts 3rbs AD 14pts 5assists 4rbs 2steals Nick 10pts Flip 13pts 4rbs 3assists 5TO Game 4 in Seattle: Allen 14pts 4rbs Flip 17pts 7rbs 2bs AD 11pts 3rbs 2steal 1bs Nick 11pts 8rbs Wilkens 11pts 7rbs The bench was able to make up for Bowen limiting one star in Game 2 because the other star was there. Bowen only played 14 minutes in Game 1 and both stars went off. Bowen played more than 30 in the other three games. With only one star to guard they can play Bowen on that star (since he can guard a 2 or a 3 at 6'7" with his speed) and the bench can only make up for so much. This is the playoffs, though, and I don't know if the Sonics can play at an even higher level than they have. San Antonio has showed us they can in the post season many times. I have hope for a competitive series, though. Here's to stealing one at the SBC center!!!
I'm trying to remember, I think SA had some legit (although probably all too common in the NBA) excuse for the loss in game 1, something like third game in 3 nights or some such thing. Game 2 in SA was huge, we were getting anything we wanted in the 1st half before they locked us down in the 2nd, fortunately we hung on to win that one. As you say, Games 3 and 4 were a wash because of injuries. Also, the Spurs have a little different look with the additions of Muhammed (dare I say he's a poor man's Jerome James?) and the Big Dog. Both can have a big impact on a game. So regular season records probably mean even less than usual. Man, looking at the stats you posted it'd be great to have Fortson with his head right and on the floor long enough for him to get those kind of numbers again, 15-13, 14-7. Again I think the key to any offensive success we're going to have is Vlade. I think the Spurs will find ways to take out Ray and possibly Rashard (I should say, negate) just like they did with Carmelo and live with Ridnour et al shooting open jumpers. Will our support guys be able to make them?
I was just looking at the bench/starter scoring for the season series too...pretty telling. In the two wins... Game 1 Sonics Starters 67 Bench 46 Spurs Starters 66 Bench 28 Game 2 Sonics Starters 61 Bench 41 Spurs Starters 77 Bench 19 In the two losses... Game 3 (No Ray Allen) Sonics Starters 46 Bench 38 Spurs Starters 75 Bench 28 Game 4 (No Lewis, Vlade or Fortson) Sonics Starters 40 Bench 36 Spurs Starters 61 Bench 28 The starters for the Sonics average 64.2 for 2004. The most likely bench players for the series (AD, Vlade, Danny, Nick) averaged 36.1 for 2004. In the two wins the starters met their average. The bench played better than average. In the two losses the starters fell 20 pts below their average and the bench played their average. If they both hit their averages, it looks like we can win with the bench still out playing the Spurs bench. Nazr is inconsistent and Big Dog is just a minor role player still...he can't have his legs after sitting the whole season. He hit two key shots last night, but that won't be enough against the Sonics bench. The REALLY big difference is moving Ginobli to the bench. That increases the bench scoring by 10 or more pts per game. We'll have to see how the rotational matchups play out in game 1.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting psheehy:</div><div class="quote_post">Nazr is inconsistent and Big Dog is just a minor role player still...he can't have his legs after sitting the whole season. He hit two key shots last night, but that won't be enough against the Sonics bench. The REALLY big difference is moving Ginobli to the bench. That increases the bench scoring by 10 or more pts per game. We'll have to see how the rotational matchups play out in game 1.</div> Well I think with Muhammed you look at him as another big body who they can put on a 4 or 5 so that Timmy stays out of foul trouble. A guy who can help out on the glass, which will be key in this series since most likely we'll be shooting 40% or less, so each possesion will be huge. Barkley was saying we had no chance in this series unless Ray Allen goes off every game. He said Ginobli would play Ray and Bowen would play Rashard. Bowen always plays Ray, and plays him tough like Mo Evans did in Game 5, plus he'll have the benefit of the referees respect so he can hold, grab, pinch, push etc. Anyway, I disagree with Charles, I think he underestimates our toughness. It'll be interesting to see how the matchups play out.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Roland Hood:</div><div class="quote_post"> Barkley was saying we had no chance in this series unless Ray Allen goes off every game. He said Ginobli would play Ray and Bowen would play Rashard. Bowen always plays Ray, and plays him tough like Mo Evans did in Game 5, plus he'll have the benefit of the referees respect so he can hold, grab, pinch, push etc. Anyway, I disagree with Charles, I think he underestimates our toughness. It'll be interesting to see how the matchups play out.</div> Bowen is 6'7", Rashard has 3 inches on him and will take him down into the low post if they put Bowen on him. That means either TD or Nazr/Rasho have to double leaving either JJ or Evans open, and we saw what that did to the Kings. I'd put Barry on Lewis and take my chances that Barry knows Shard well enough to force him to his weaknesses. That doesn't work and Horry is a good guard for Lewis. Lewis can blow by him any day, but he will have nowhere to go with 2 seven footers clogging the lane all night. With Bowen locking up Allen who does Lewis pass to? Parker is savvy enough to keep Luke busy and the bigs will have their hands full. I see a bunch of pick and roll plays for Allen to rub Bowen off a ton of screens and draw their bigs out of the paint for Lewis to get post ups. Pop is a brilliant coach, and he adjusts constantly. That is an even bigger advantage than TD on the block, Parker running circles around everyone and Ginobli inserting unpredictability. I don't think Nate has the depth of experience to keep up with the in game countering of move after move. I imagine quick starts for the Sonics followed by long stretches of dry spells after a Pop adjustment.
Who Sonics need to guard on the Spurs: Ginobili - can be defended by Lewis and at times Daniels. Duncan - must be defended by a combination of James, Evans and Fortson. Who Spurs need to guard on the Sonics: Allen - can be defended by Ginobili because of his length; may also be defended by Parker in some stretches Lewis - can only be defended by Bowen, anybody else would be eaten alive. This is going to be a tough series if the Sonics can show that they play defense consistently.
Rashard Lewis should have a nice advantage in this series. But even tho Robert Horry is a 150 years old, he is still a capable defender. And he will be willing to step out and guard Lewis in the 3pt area. Plus Lewis isnt the type who overally creates his own shor, his open looks more benefits from great Sonics ball movement. I think the point of attack for the Sonics to win this seires has to be at the point guard position. Not nessarally that Ridnour or Daniels have to look to score. But they have to be aggressive trying to get into the lanes and make Tony Parker work on defense, cause it will benefit the Sonics on both ends of the court. On offense, it benefits the Sonics Tony Parker is the weakest link in the Spurs defense. When teams are aggressive against him, it leads to breakdowns in the Spurs defense, perect example was how aggressive Andre Miller was in game 1, once he broke down Parker off the dribble you started to see the Spurs defense fall apart a bit. I dont think you can let Parker rest on defense make him work. On the defensive end for the Sonics, when you make Parker work on D then he for some reason always becomes hesistent on the offensive end. And he doesnt look to be as aggressive getting into the paint. I know most players usally let their effectiveness on offense effect how hard they play on defense. But for Parker, I have noticed it to be a bit of the opposite, when are taking advantage of his defense, he lets it effect how hard he plays on offense. We seen it a bit a couple of years ago in the finals against the Nets against Jason Kidd, when the series first started he was great. But once Kidd started going back at him Parker began to fade, almost in away where he looked afraid. And Speedy Claxton had to pick up for him. And then we seen it a bit again last year, during the Lakers series, he was killing Gary Payton until Payton started being offensively aggressive. Now Payton was scoring much put just the more phsyical offensive pressence he was having like trying to post Parker up etc made Parker fold. And you even had to see Coach Pop use Giniboli at PG alot of minutes, because Parker began to sort of crack under the pressure of someone coming back at him. So point blank Tony Parker has got to be the guy that the Sonics have to expose if they are going to win this series. That will take aggressive play from the PG spot.
I've read/heard 2 national previews that have made reference to Brent Barry guarding Rashard. Something about his familiarity with Rashard's game I really hope they do, this is the same Brent Barry that couldn't guard someone in phone booth, and I think it's one reason Pop didn't play him as much as was initially thought when he signed. AD said in yesterday's paper that playing for Pop if you miss a defensive rotation, you sit - period.
