Okay, it looks like the Warriors are headed for another top 5 pick, so I've started thinking about who would be there. While there's still a fair chance the team could pull off a trade before the deadline to shake things up, I don't think anything major is going to happen, so I?m picturing the Warriors going into the draft with the same basic roster. So here's how I see things: <u>Draft Needs</u> 1. Point guard: Really this is the one major team need. Speedy has a team option for next year, but with Fisher signed long term, it's unlikely Speedy will be re-signed, even if the team picks up his option. I think it's safe to say Fisher isn't a long term solution at pg, so it'd be a good time to get a pg now. 2. Small forward: I love Dunleavy, and more importantly, Mullin loves Dunleavy, but the W's are going to have to make a decision on him pretty soon. I don't think you'll see him sign a contract extension next summer a la Richardson and Murphy, but I do think Mullin really wants to keep him and will give him another year to prove himself. If he's not the answer and Pietrus doesn't look like he's picking up Montgomery's offense, Mullin will consider his sf options. 3. power forward/center: Okay, I don't see this as a realistic option at all, but since so many people are talking about Bogut and others, I thought I'd include it. I can give you three big reasons why you definitely won't see the Warriors draft a big man in '05: 1) Murphy, he's a lock at pf, 2) Biedrins, they drafted him to be the future defensive force, and 3) Foyle's contract, like it or not, Foyle's contract makes him virtually impossible to trade, and the less he plays, the more of an anchor he becomes. With those three around long term, the power positions are set. <u>If they keep the pick...</u> 1. Chris Paul: Plan A would be to get the #1 overall pick so they can draft Paul. But the Warriors have proved repeatedly that they should never plan on getting the top pick. As Kwan will attest, the W's haven't had the ping pong balls go their way in a LONG time, so it's best to assume they won't have a higher pick that what their record reflects, which would put them around #4. At that spot, I think it's unlikely that Paul will be there, but you never know. This draft doesn't have a clear #1, and actually seems fairly weak up top, so expect some shuffling in the coming months. But, even though it?s possible Paul could slip to #4, I don't see three other guys who are clearly better than him at this point. 2. Raymond Felton: If the W's finish with the fourth best record, it's conceivable that they fall to seventh in the lottery (and if you've followed the Warriors, you know that this is much more likely than them getting the #1). In this worst case scenario, Felton is certainly the best option. I actually like him a little more than Paul at this point. I love his leadership, court vision, and athleticism. At 6'1" he's still a little on the small side, but his 6'1" is a lot better than Paul's 5'11". 3. Marvin Williams: Just for a change of pace, I'm throwing in a sf. Williams is one of those guys who's stock could go way up or way down over the next six months, if he decides to declare. He's as big as Dunleavy and a better defender, but he doesn't have Dunleavy's skill set. <u>If they don't keep the pick</u> This is actually what I think is most likely to happen. If the Warriors don't like Felton and don't think they can get Paul, I see them moving the pick. And it just so happens that I can throw out a completely foundationless, though utterly possible trade scenario. Here it goes: W's send the #1, Najera, Fisher, and either Dunleavy or Pietrus to the Hornets for Baron Davis. Why the Hornets do it: Dickau has emerged as a promising young pg, but the team doesn't have a whole lot of young talent to build around. With Pietrus or Dunleavy, the W's #1, and their own #1, the Hornets could remake their entire roster in one off season. They don't have many long term contracts, so taking on Fisher and Najera's contracts won't be a big issue. Why the Warriors do it: If they can't get their future pg through the draft, acquiring Davis would be a great second option. The last three years have been a nightmare for Davis as far as injuries are concerned, but before that he didn't miss a game in three years. It's a gamble, but a calculated one. And even if Davis gets injured, Claxston will still be on the team and Dunleavy (if he isn't part of the trade) can also fill in at pg. The only other concern is his salary, he'll make 12 mil next year and he's signed through '08, when he makes 16 mil. But Fisher and Najera combine for nearly 10 mil next year and will make over 11 mil in '08, plus Fisher is signed through '10, so taking on Davis' salary isn't that big of a deal. So the W's '05/'06 roster would look something like this: pg: Davis sg: Richardson sf: Dunelavy or Pietrus pf: Murphy c: Foyle bench: Speedy, Biedrins, Carbakapa, plus a bargain bin sg/sf like Cheaney
I don't see why we couldn't get Bogut if Biedrens doesn't work out. Big men with footwork, rebounding, shotblocking and passing are so hard to find. Good analysis btw, WtWalker. I really think Mullin could be kicking himself for that stupid Foyle contract if Bogut happens to be the real deal when it comes to 7 footers with the whole big man fundamentals and physical skill set. If Bogut actually falls that far or we get the number one pick, I say we should go for it. If Biedrens/Bogut is your power forward/center tandem I think that has the potential to do more damage than no-offense foyle and ballhog Murphy.
I saw some of Bogut recently on the tube and he's got game, that's for sure, especially a nice passing game. However, he's not as big as Gasol so he's destined for a good player, not a great one. Chris Paul is awesome. Get him and I do not care who is under contract.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting philsmith75:</div><div class="quote_post">I saw some of Bogut recently on the tube and he's got game, that's for sure, especially a nice passing game. However, he's not as big as Gasol so he's destined for a good player, not a great one. Chris Paul is awesome. Get him and I do not care who is under contract.</div> Paul sounds as hyped up as Kenny Andersen when he came into the league. Is he that profound? He seems really smallish. Also Bogut is only a Sophmore isn't he? He's a true 7 footer I thought. Pau is like 7'1 now. I think he grew 1 or 2 inches.
bogut... i saw utah play sdsu the other week in person. bogut is everything the warriors need for a big man. The guy has great passing skills, ala vlade, moves the ball immediately out of the post to the open guy, Imagine working with Murph what a 1-2 combo. He is a legit 7 footer who faced triple teams the entire game yet held his own shooting 7-8 and never forcing the ball. He is strong at 245lbs and yes a soph. very young. What impressed me most was his post skills. He can go with either hand, in fact, my friends and i were arguing over whether he was a lefty or righty. truly ambidextrious, the one free throw he shot i did miss however i saw that he threw out of the post wiht either hand but outletted right handed. I will be beside myself with happiness if we draft this guy. He leads the nation in field goal per centage and rebounds. Has solid footwork for a young guy and seems aggressive and fearless. the only downside i saw was athletiscm.... he has quick feet but no hops last i saw he was projected as the number two pick... if we didnt change out roster at all we would be so much improved .... but based on j-rich and murph's growth in the past year .... and i hope to see dunleavy improve the same..... i almost feel the warriors might be best to stand pat and let the guys grow together without major changes.... sure if we could move claxton or fish and the trade exception a draft pick or so to get baron davis ....by all means.... adding bogut and if biedrins is as good as the predraft hype last year we might really having something young and special in a team
We shouldn't draft a big man because we have Foyle, Murphy and Biedrins? We're in the west, we don't have a big body who can push guys out of the paint, we're one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and Monty is crying for a player who can score in the post...I think we can afford to draft a big. Our current bigs are Murphy= horrible defensively(scalabrine knows that), Foyle is a spaz and Biedrins is still a question mark. I'd welcome Bogut with open arms and I know he's not a defensive juggernaut.
Unless we have Nash/Marion/Stoudamire + 3 point shooters + secondary ballhandlers (Joe Johnson), I can't see us playing without a center that can protect the lane and score some. It's either the point guard spot we have to build our franchise blocks on or a proven big man with low post game. Murphy could be like Mehmet Okur I guess... but I've yet to see Murphy average a 0.8 blocks a game. He averages half as many as Okur. If players are driving at our softies who aren't sending shots into the stands, they got no fear of driving right on them all day. Guys like Ben Wallace, Marcus Camby, Theo Ratliff, they all make you think twice before entering the "no fly zone" and they can get offensive rebounds. That's hard for Murphy when he's getting further and further away from the paint. And face it Foyle can't rebound in traffic. He's horrible.
Guys, I'm not questioning whether or not Bogut is a great prospect, he is. But I am TELLING you it is absolutely foolish to draft a guy who you know is two to three years from contributing, then draft another guy at the same position the following year because you didn't see a lot of production out of him the first year. You're worried about the team being soft in the middle? You're worried about not having a shot blocking presence? You're worried about not having a post up scorer? Time for a refresher on Biedrins: <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">He's unlike any Euro I've ever seen. He's long (7-foot with a 7-1? wingspan), has great lateral quickness, is an explosive leaper with a 34? inch vertical jump (Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony each have a 33-inch verticals, by way of comparison) and ... drum roll please ... Biedrins prefers to play in the paint, where most 7-footers belong. He's a pure four whose specialty is defense, shot blocking and energy -- not real staples of the Euros who have been flooding the draft the past few years. His body is ripped, and he has a strong core that allows him to play in the post. He bench presses 185 pounds around 15 times. Only one big guy in Chicago (Jason Keep) topped that in combine testing last year. </div> If you don't trust Chad Ford's opinion, here are some quotes from training camp: <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Another intriguing player who garnered the respect and attention of his teammates and coaches during training camp is Andris Biedrins. The rookie forward continued to display his unique ability to simply be around the ball and make things happen during the scrimmage on Saturday. Despite being short on experience and facing the transition of living in a new country, Biedrins' progress is certainly on schedule. His length and quickness in the paint will prove as a major benefit throughout his career. Meanwhile, his offensive game - which featured a nice spin move for a short jumper over Clifford Robinson on Saturday - is a little unorthodox at this point, but will continue to evolve. In the interim, however, he is not afraid to battle bigger and stronger players under the glass at this early stage in his career. As previously mentioned in this space, his youth (18 years old) provides him with plenty of time for growth. </div> <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Biedrins, who will have the opportunity to develop without any large expectations this season, has impressed Dunleavy and his other teammates and coaches during the early stages of training camp. The 6'11" forward from Latvia has displayed many of the skills that made him a certain lottery pick in last June's NBA Draft, including the ability to rebound the basketball, his shot blocking prowess and a certain sneakiness around the basket on the offensive end.</div> <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">"He certainly has the potential to be a very good player," said Mullin, observing the 11th pick in the draft from his customary seat along the far baseline at the RIMAC. "However, we need to remember that he just turned 18 years old. He's got plenty of time and it will be fun to watch his development." </div> Here's the link to the Warriors training camp where I got everything except the initial Chad Ford scouting report. Now it's pretty clear from Mullin's quote that he knew Biedrins was going to be a long term project, and he's willing to wait on him to develop. What I really wanted to find though was the quotes from Mullin after the summer league games. All I remember is Mullin raving about the kid's soft hands, quick feet, and craftiness around the basket. I'm telling you guys, if you want the Warriors to draft Bogut, click on the link and read some stuff about Biedrins, it'll be enough to get you excited about him again and you'll forget about Bogut. Trust me, I've called the last four Warriors picks, they're going small this year unless they trade the pick.
The thing with Biedrins is it could be a while before he is ready to play heavy minutes, and even then it's not clear that center is the best position for him. If the W's were playing him at the 3 in summer league then perhaps they realize his athletic ability is best used at the four. Bogut is such a complete basketball player, he's one of the best college big men I've seen since Duncan. Good set of post moves, great shooting percentage, absolutely great passer, very good rebounder. Defense might be the area he would need to improve, but center isn't the toughest position to guard in the league. The one drawback with him is that he and Murphy have similar games, and a similar lack of athleticism. Bogut and Dunleavy would actually seem to be a better mix of styles at the 4 & 5. I think their passing ability on the floor together would be a pleasure to watch, and the team would be very well-suited to play in the half court, offensively.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">Paul sounds as hyped up as Kenny Andersen when he came into the league. Is he that profound? He seems really smallish. Also Bogut is only a Sophmore isn't he? He's a true 7 footer I thought. Pau is like 7'1 now. I think he grew 1 or 2 inches.</div> Chris paul is the real deal, If we are in the position to get him, and we dont. It will be bad news, beleive me, mark my words down. Also Bogut, is not going to be good in the NBA, mark those down too. he will be a bust. I watch A LOT of college hoops. We need to stay away from Bogut/Taft Bogut is one of those college players that can Outplay weaker competition (sometimes) and look great. and Taft. well hes just overrated.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting GoldenstWarrior:</div><div class="quote_post">Chris paul is the real deal, If we are in the position to get him, and we dont. It will be bad news, beleive me, mark my words down. Also Bogut, is not going to be good in the NBA, mark those down too. he will be a bust. I watch A LOT of college hoops. We need to stay away from Bogut/Taft Bogut is one of those college players that can Outplay weaker competition (sometimes) and look great. and Taft. well hes just overrated.</div> I don't know, Bogut played pretty well in the Olympics, and has experience playing in international tournaments as a junior for Australia, as well. I don't buy the argument that it's only the competition. Perhaps he wouldn't be third in the nation in fg%, fourth in points, and first in rebounding, but he'd still look damn good. And he's only in his second year in college.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting goldenstatefan:</div><div class="quote_post"> Bogut is such a complete basketball player, he's one of the best college big men I've seen since Duncan. Good set of post moves, great shooting percentage, absolutely great passer, very good rebounder. Defense might be the area he would need to improve, but center isn't the toughest position to guard in the league. The one drawback with him is that he and Murphy have similar games, and a similar lack of athleticism.</div> Do you think Murphy could be groomed into an everyday center? He's a strong guy, and pretty tall. He's not a shot blocking presence and never will be, but if we have Biedrins rocking the 4 and protecting the paint, then who cares if our center can block shots? Murph's post game has been improving. It seems to me like he has potential to be an Okur type player, except better in every category.
BTW, anybody have a clue who the good second rounders are this year? I've read on various forums people mentioning guys like Granger, Diener, and Stoudamire, and the Italian prospect Gigli that Mullin was scouting may be a second-rounder. With the exceptions on their own pick and now with New Jersey's pick, this year's second round could be interesting to watch.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting GSWScruff:</div><div class="quote_post">Do you think Murphy could be groomed into an everyday center? He's a strong guy, and pretty tall. He's not a shot blocking presence and never will be, but if we have Biedrins rocking the 4 and protecting the paint, then who cares if our center can block shots? Murph's post game has been improving. It seems to me like he has potential to be an Okur type player, except better in every category. </div>I would think that being a defensive presence in the paint is a must for a centre and Murphy does not provide that. As for drafting Bogut, I don't think he will last long enough for the Warriors to pick him up. If they can get a top 3 pick then I can see it happening but I see them in the 6 and 7 range. I think Felton is a perfect pick for the Warriors. He fits in because of his incredible athleticism and his ability to drive and dish. Pair him up with JRich and maybe even Pietrus in the same lineup and they can be exciting to watch.
i have seen bogut in person..... i do not see the similarities in their games ...quite the opposite....and they would compliment each other well.....bogut is not a spot up shooter as murph is.... and bogut plays exceptionally well with his back to the basket ....murph doesnt ..... bogut also as mentioned is a tremendous passer, similar to vlade divac...... i dont buy the weaker competition thing either..... and he has been facing triple teams nearly every game. if he is there we should not hesitate with our pick to grab him,,,,, the biedrins write up s and hype are great ...but i have seen bogut ..... i have not seen biedrins ...well a few minutes..... but here we are more than half way through his rookie season and sesay has more minutes for the warriors than biedrins
I'm excited about Biedrens as much as the next guy, but his comparrisons (which obviously aren't realistic until he's proven) are to guys like Chris Bosh, Jermaine O'neil, and Kenyon Martin. All power forwards. The guy would be excellent to play at the 4 and could a possible all around defender and a guy to throw alley oops too. But pair him up with Bogut and you got an option to pass from the high post and score inside and he also blocks shots and rebounds. He's also demonstrated the ability to play at an international level and at a very young age. I dunno I've seen the guy get tripled and he's been pretty impressive. I worry about Chris Paul being the next Chris Thomas btw, but if he's the real deal and he's projected #1 overall right now it must mean the draft is that weak or he's the whole package. Still the guy is like 5'10... Also I can testify to Wtwalker being able to call the drafts really closely. Especially our own picks. He's nailed Biedrens, Dunleavy, but I don't know about 2003 with Pietrus.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting wtwalker77:</div><div class="quote_post"> I'm telling you guys, if you want the Warriors to draft Bogut, click on the link and read some stuff about Biedrins, it'll be enough to get you excited about him again and you'll forget about Bogut. Trust me, I've called the last four Warriors picks, they're going small this year unless they trade the pick.</div> I do think that Biedrins has a lot of potential but he's a work in progress. It could take him a few years to develop. Bogut is balling in college and I don't think he would be a project like Biedrins even though Biedrins has tons of upside. Bogut's got a good post game now! That's my opinion as far as that goes. If you've been correct on the W's draft for the past four years then I gotta give you credit. That's not easy especially when Pietrus and Richardson were drafted. I do think you might be right that GSW will go for a point guard first even though I don't think it's a good idea.
The problem with drafting Bogut is that you aren't thinking long term. Murphy is penciled in as the starting pf for the next five years, and Biedrins was drafted as a long term project as either a four or five, with the presumption that he would play whatever position Murphy didn't. Everyone knew Biedrins was a long term project, by all accounts he's progressing right on schedule, so please tell me WHY the Warriors would draft another young big man when they have much more pressing needs at pg? Yes Bogut is a terrific player, yes he's already a better post up player than Biedrins, and yes, he may even be able to contribute a year before Biedrins. But you don't draft someone just because they'll be ready a year before another one of your players, you sign a free agent to a one term deal for that reason. You draft a guy with a top 5 pick because you want him to be a cornerstone of your franchise for the next 10 years.
Yeah that's the problem, Murphy and Foyle were signed too soon for too much and too long to give us a picture of how they would fit on Monty's team this season. So it's forced us to look for short term solutions on our badly needed post game because nobody else is willing to give up theirs. Could Bogut dominate in the NBA? Hard to say because he's so young, but if he turns out like a combo between Vlade and Tim Duncan, we would be kicking ourselves later if we were to have a chance at getting him. There's just too much upside to pass up on for the center spot. I believe in Biedrens, but I don't believe in Foyle or Murphy as starters in the front court. One is just horrible and the other is not a factor on the defensive end playing power forward or center and neither have post games, although Murphy could turn into Mehmet Okur with a little training. But I see what you're saying, Wtwalker, about the long term... That would be big money just to pay for backups... I'd probably like to have a franchise point guard even more because he's the dude that has to do almost everything in order to run his team like a quarterback does for a football team and we can always run on slow transition teams by getting a little faster with more secondary ball handlers and passers.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting wtwalker77:</div><div class="quote_post">The problem with drafting Bogut is that you aren't thinking long term. Murphy is penciled in as the starting pf for the next five years, and Biedrins was drafted as a long term project as either a four or five, with the presumption that he would play whatever position Murphy didn't. </div> If Murphy is still a warrior after 2 more years I will pay you twenty bucks. If he's a warrior after his contract make it 40. Murphy is a unorthodox PF who can shoot the J, board and get to the line. I think he is a top 15 PF but he's horrible defensively and due to our lack of defensive presence and his iffy shooting % I don't see him staying a warrior. He is close to being worth his current contract but only partially fits Golden State's needs which are an inside presence who can rebound, defend and shoot a high %. In the east or a team needing a good jump shooter people will take a flyer on Murph. If we have a chance to draft Bogut and put Biedrins at the 4 then that will be a strong frontcourt. I'm not overly anxious over anyone in this draft but I am thinking long term, DD will be gone, Foyle stinks, Murphy's got issues and then there's Biedrins. Not only that but I think you can agree that whoever we draft is going to eventually want an expensice contract whether it is Paul or Bogut. We are already over the salary cap and will need to trade someone for an expiring deal. In an ideal world we could match anyone up to his bird rights regardless of the cap but our owner is Chris Cohan and we are already at the limit. You said it yourself Foyle is untradeable, JRich puts people in the seats, Dunleavy won't command anything extravagant, who does that leave out? Murphy.
