18-8 To Close out March? Am I Crazy? <Answer Inside>

18-8 To Close out March? Am I Crazy? **Answer Inside**

Well, I can't answer if I'm crazy, but I can play around with bold B-Ball predictions.

I'm looking at a copy of the schedule here, and honestly I believe the Warriors have a decent chance of going 18-8 in the next 26 games, to close out March with a 38-33 record.

"How!?!?" You may be asking. The Warriors are tired, discombobulated, without their premier scorer, and trying to figure out how to play defense, offense, special teams -- the whole works. How can they go on a winning streak when they're still "trying to find an identity" as Davis put it on TNT last night?

This 18-8 "streak" of good basketball could very well define their identity. You can't create an identity, you have to discover it. No amount of sitting around brain storming at the drawing board will get it done. The spirit of the team must emerge from the ashes of hard work, sweat, and perseverance. Okay, so really -- How!?!?

Well, pick up your local sports section and check out their schedule. The Warriors are facing an upcoming schedule with several teams (Minnesota, Sacramento, Washington, Houston, Utah) in the same boat they are: good but not great teams that are barely-playoff-caliber. (Cleveland also has a great record but they are totally beatable IMO)

Here are the potential wins I circle:

Minnesota
at Washington
at Indiana
at Cleveland
at Sacramento
at Houston
Utah
Orlando
at Minnesota
at Atlanta
at Charlotte
at Orlando
Minnesota
Philadelphia
at Sacramento
New Orleans
Sacramento
Washington

Here are the potential losses:

Denver
Memphis
LA Clippers
at San Antonio
LA Lakers
at Miami
at San Antonio
at Dallas

I know it's a stretch to think they'll win all of those "winnable" games, but I also know it's possible.

 

I will join your band wagon as there's nothing to lose.

 

you really overrate this team

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting superman32:</div><div class="quote_post">you really overrate this team</div>

Care to explain why?

 

Why do we overrate this team, because we think that we are better than we are. How we overrate our team, is probably just like what the first post says, 18-8 against all of those teams may be more difficult than we think.

Though in my opinion, I really don't know how to rate this team. Roster wise I think this team is pretty good. Other ways, this team isn't so great...

 

I say not unless there's a change. We always lead in games but lose it. It's not just against good teams but almost all teams. The structure and gameplan have to change. If you slow down the game, you need strong bigs that can do the dirty work. Foyle lol. In the preseason game in Hawaii I thought "oh man, Adonal looks in great shape. This could be a decent year for him." He looks like he's gained just pounds of fat since then. For a professional athlete he should be embarrassed. Murphy been playing better but it's not good enough. If he grabbed 10 & 10 and put a body on somebody, boxed out, took easier shots, didn't clog the offense by just standing there, passed the ball, stopped posting up I wouldn't be all over him but he does and I am. He needs to play a role rather than padding his ego.

If they run, they can go 18-8. If they give Ike and Beans more minutes, they can. If Fisher is taken off backup point guard they can. IMO Monty won't do a single one of those. He's too afraid to disrupt the team's structure and face the consequences of his team totally going crazy on him so it's all up to Mullin to change the roster to leave him no choice.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting upsidedownside7:</div><div class="quote_post">I say not unless there's a change. We always lead in games but lose it. It's not just against good teams but almost all teams. The structure and gameplan have to change. If you slow down the game, you need strong bigs that can do the dirty work. Foyle lol. In the preseason game in Hawaii I thought "oh man, Adonal looks in great shape. This could be a decent year for him." He looks like he's gained just pounds of fat since then. For a professional athlete he should be embarrassed. Murphy been playing better but it's not good enough. If he grabbed 10 & 10 and put a body on somebody, boxed out, took easier shots, didn't clog the offense by just standing there, passed the ball, stopped posting up I wouldn't be all over him but he does and I am. He needs to play a role rather than padding his ego.

If they run, they can go 18-8. If they give Ike and Beans more minutes, they can. If Fisher is taken off backup point guard they can. IMO Monty won't do a single one of those. He's too afraid to disrupt the team's structure and face the consequences of his team totally going crazy on him so it's all up to Mullin to change the roster to leave him no choice.</div>

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting upsidedownside7:</div><div class="quote_post"> Murphy been playing better but it's not good enough. If he grabbed 10 & 10 and put a body on somebody, boxed out, took easier shots, didn't clog the offense by just standing there, passed the ball, stopped posting up I wouldn't be all over him but he does and I am.</div>

I don't blame you, those are great points and Murph really does need to box out and keep moving. But he has played better.

The thing is, are the recent meltdowns by the Warriors indicative of a losing team, or of the way the "ball bounces" in the NBA? Shoot, looking at some of those quarters against the Lakers, Seattle, and -- the defending champs -- San Antonio, you'd swear the Warriors were a high-octane playoff team. Those quarters where Monta Ellis went off against LA; Biedrins getting 16 points and 8-9 rebounds; Pietrus getting 20 and 10; the 35+ point quarters; for significant stretches the WArriors beat those 3 teams, and looked good doing it. They just couldn't put it together consistently.

Yeah they need a true center. Yeah they need toughness inseide. Yeah they need to shoot better than a 4th grade basket-weaving class from the free throw line. But I have a hunch that some of these losses were just part of the way the NBA goes. I know it's optimistic, but I feel it's about time for the other teams to start having meltdowns.

If Monta Ellis can take over significant minutes at back up PG; If Murph can keep up his good play; If Dunleavy can trust Baron and Baron trust Dunleavy; If Monty can make substitutions like Mussleman; If JRich re-inserts himself seamlessly into the flow;

The Warriors will go 18-8.

That's a lot of ifs. I predict they're not "ifs," but "whens."

Warriors will be at 38-33 by April.

 

This could be said to just about every team in the league. You do know that only the truly good teams aka title contending teams are the squads that wins all of the games that their suppose to win.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Kensaku:</div><div class="quote_post">Care to explain why? </div>
I'm curious to know why too. I think anytime there's a one-liner post without explanation, it should be deleted. Why? It's a waste of time, it's lazy and it's unfair to us.

I think the Warriors' only hope for survival in the playoff race is to start doing what they do on the out of bounds plays... start moving without the ball and beat their defender by hustling. Montgomery needs to toughen up, Baron needs to settle down, players need to start listening to what the coaching staff wants them to do and stop trying to deviate from the game plan and take over the game by themselves. Team needs to trust each other and work together, not think they singelhandedly need to win ball games by risking a snowball's chance in hell type of shot.

It's stupid for a coach not to have a game plan and its stupid for us to assume that there isn't one. Players have to buy into a system of play sets because there won't be fastbreak opportunities every trip down when only one guy on our team makes fastbreaks successful, very few guys can create their own shot with the ball and very few guys can finish inside and rebound to even start the break. Warriors need to think "team" like they did last year when the ball would touch a lot of different hands. Now it's like playmakers are afraid to pass the ball to certain guys like Dunleavy or Foyle because both f-up the easiest looks of the game whether it be a midrange shot or an easy layup or catch.

They also need to improve the shot selection, cut down on threes, hit the 18 foot midrange jumper and set better screens closer inside to allow the shooter a good look at the basket. The Warriors also need to rebound better, be more active, and box out so somebody on the same team can come up with the rebound. When somebody is setting a pick or a screen, they need to know the timing to move off of it so the ball handler has enough room to maneuver. It's called floor spacing, Warriors!

They also need to knock off the one-on-one streetball crap and use isolations as setup plays for somebody else. We can draw double teams through superior ballhandling, but guys without the ball have to be more active in getting open or getting other people open at the same time. We need the ball to go from the outside-in before it goes back outside. There's just too many offensive players on this team and not enough guys playing defense and doing the dirty work to make others better. Only one guy can shoot the ball, four guys to make that shot easier, but all five have to play defense and cover for each other. Yeah we got questionable defensive talent or undeveloped talent, but we have to go to war with what we have since our bargaining chips aren't hot right now or we would have had Artest (hint: nobody wants Dunleavy and we sure as hell ain't giving up our only low-post offense prospect!).

Then we got Troy Murphy who can't play defense or play physical inside but you know what you're getting from him offensively and on the glass. Dunleavy Jr. is probably the most overrated, wussiest, fundamentally sound, pure shooter type player on this team, but I wish all the guys with more in-game results would play with his sense of courtvision, unselfishness and knowledge of where to be without the ball and who to get the ball to. Foyle makes tons of mistakes offensively/defensively, but I guess we appreciate anybody that can defend and doesn't foul out faster than a rookie player from Latvia who gets outmuscled and jumps into people because of getting shoved off the block. If you watch Foyle's game outside of shotblocking, he does not set the best screens, he overplays way too much for a veteran center causing open lanes, he doesn't establish good defensive position some trips down the floor, and he just doesn't win the extra posessions like he used to when he had more spring in his jump and weighed 20 lbs lighter. Has he ever won a tipoff or a jump ball? That's probably as likely as him catching the ball and then dunking it uncontested without any kind of bobbling on the catch or the ball barely clearing the front iron.

Finally, Warriors need to hit a higher % of free throws. Guys in the clutch should not be mediocre free throw shooters. I'm baffled by how poor guys like JRich and Baron Davis are at this. Even Dunleavy, Murphy, Zarko can be suprisingly bad at this in the few times they do get to the foul line. It is contagious.

I don't know if Montgomery is running a system that this team can't handle or is incapable of handling, or players don't want to listen to the teacher, but maybe we need to shake this roster up or dumb things down like Eric Musselman. I don't know if we can win this game by keeping it simple consindering professionals can anticipate and react to the "simple". Screen and roll, pass and cut, just doesn't work. But we need to execute like we do on out of bounds plays... Also the best student on the team needs to stop thinking he's smarter than the teacher. Baron is only 25, he's a superstar, but he's got to learn to trust his teammates, learn to play organized ball, and know that he can't always make something out of nothing. He needs a team and his teammates need to step up. Guys like Dunleavy need to get his act together, guys like Biedrins need to grow faster, guys like Troy Murphy need to work hard every night like he's playing against Dirk Nowitzki or Tim Duncan, and Derek Fisher has to set a better example of how a guy looking to score, needs to pass first, move, get open, rather than chucking the ball on the first touch with a man in his face. Jrich has to learn his limitations. He's not going to get his shot going by dribbling through traffic. He needs to be like a Rip Hamilton/Reggie Miller player utilizing screens or power up like Corey Maggette (but not in traffic).

 

^ Now that's a guy for ya that's passionate about his team. If only the coach had that attitude.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Avery:</div><div class="quote_post">^ Now that's a guy for ya that's passionate about his team. If only the coach had that attitude.</div>

And why, exactly, are you posting here?

I mean, care to talk basketball? Or just "comment" on our comments?

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting AlleyOop:</div><div class="quote_post">And why, exactly, are you posting here?

I mean, care to talk basketball? Or just "comment" on our comments? </div>
Good comment about Avery's comment about CR2's comment, Alleyoop.

 

On a more serious note, I doubt that the warriors can go 18-8. It doesn't matter what teams they are playing. It helps to play against weaker teams, but it seems to be a trust and confidence matter, that is causing this team to lose. Starting with Minnesota, if they can win a few in a row, that will boost their confidence.

I think more than anything, the reason why the warriors did so well at the end of the season is because BD infused the team with confidence, it seemed like they seriously believed that he was the answer to their woes. But it wore off. Kind of cliche, but it's like a ten year old getting a new toy if he studied really hard. He'll probably study hard for a week and then go back to his old habits.

I agree with CR2's assement of the team. I think dunleavy can be pretty good if he ever gets his shot to go down consistently, especially the poor three point shooting, which he shot well last year. It'd open up more oppurtunities for him and the team. It seems like he is the biggest difference in why they are losing.

In the spurs game last night, the fourth quarter was pretty bad. It was like Fish took a shot, then BD, then Fish, then BD, then Fish, then BD, then Fish. They got a bit selfish and stopped playing the way they played in the first three quarters. They definitely seem to get rattled easily and I think that's all confidence.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Gohn:</div><div class="quote_post">Good comment about Avery's comment about CR2's comment, Alleyoop.</div>

Yeah, you do make a good comment here about my comment about Avery's comment about CR2's comment -- I'm not trying to call him out, I just wanted to jump on the "comments about comments aren't cool" train and ride it all the way to tinsle-town baby.

Actually, though, I will say 3 things:

1)Yeah, Custodian is a passionate fan and -- damn! -- that's some good insight about the way the Warriors run out-of-bounds plays.

-- You want to know why I think they execute out of bounds plays so well? the guy with the ball in his hands can't try to go 1-on-1. He's forced to make a good pass!

Maybe the Warriors should try that middle-school drill where your team doesn't get to dribble the ball once they cross half-court -- ball fakes and passing only. What a concept.

2)I wouldn't mind seeing a little fire from Montgomery, but by the same token I'm not ready to jump on the "Monty doesn't care" wagon and ride that mo-fo anywhere. I really do believe he cares tremendously about the way his team plays -- you can't be a long term college coach without caring about the game.

I would like to see him get after his own players, though, now that he's somewhat "established" as coach.

Look at Popovich, Riley ----- look at Mike D'Antoni of the Suns -- that guy has a passion for winning and IMO he should be coach of the year. Yeah Nash has made every back-up player on that roster look like an all-star, but coach D over there deserves a ton of credit for establishing credibility and passion from his team.

3)Not every team that is supposed to lose to the elite teams loses. The Warriors could very well go 20-6.

But they won't. Because they are going to go 18-8 to close out March.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Yeah, you do make a good comment here about my comment about Avery's comment about CR2's comment -- I'm not trying to call him out, I just wanted to jump on the "comments about comments aren't cool" train and ride it all the way to tinsle-town baby.</div>
I know, I wasn't serious. Hehe.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Avery:</div><div class="quote_post">This could be said to just about every team in the league. You do know that only the truly good teams aka title contending teams are the squads that wins all of the games that their suppose to win.</div>

That's ridiculous. This team has totally underacheived in every sense. Every analyst picked them to be in playoff contention all year and they look terrible at this point. Any good basketball team can keep a double digit lead in the 4th, we can't against mediocre teams. Seriously, watch a ballgame.

 

2/04/06

Dear diary,
the Warriors beat the Wolves by thirty tonight. If ever they could use a game as a "springboard," this is it. JRich came back strong. He was hitting his free throws. the ball movement was probably the best they've had all year. And every one looked like they wanted to pass. Murphy out-played Garnett and I am suddenly hoping he stays in a GS jersey for a long time. Baron didn;t play much and I didn't even notice, the team looked in complete synergy. Pietrus is mutha-fockin Air France! That guy just lights up the gym. And the rookies? They played great! You should have seen Biedrins -- he looked strong, quick, and agile.

Oh, and Foyle was scoring in the first half real well!

Well, that's one win down, 17 to go. Here's to 38-33 by April!

 

2/06/06

Dear Diary,
the Warriors really took it to the Nuggets tonight. You should have been there -- their defense in the 3rd quarter looked like a tag team of an angry baboon troop partnered with a riled swarm of wasps -- They stifled Denver 35-15 in that quarter!

Dunleavy came off the bench and just played stellar ball, once again. Even better, on the post game he said he's excited about his new role. Perhaps he'll be more involved coming off the bench.

Air France put on a show, JRich is looking healthy -- this was a solid win.

And another step closer to going 18-8 to close out March.

That's 2 down, 16 to go -- Go Warriors!!!!

 

This Dear Diary thing is a great idea, oop.

BTW we almost got into nervous time this game, but we'll take the win. The teamwork was a lot better and the offense was more fluid. Defense was a little bit rough down the stretch. The important thing is we got the rebounds and we shot a decent % from the field and from the foul line.

Also, when Dunleavy plays well, the Warriors usually win (that is if the other core group of warriors are producing their usual numbers).