2008 Blake V. 2009 Miller - Advanced Statistical Comparison

Some raw data to chew on to see how much of an upgrade Miller has been thus far over last season.

Miller actually is producing less in terms of PER (14.3) than Blake did last season (14.4), yet he is the primary ballhandler. Let's take a look at some other numbers, for the sake of comparision.

TS%
2008 BLANKY 55.7%
2009 Miller 48.8%

eFG%
2008 BLANKY 53.6%
2009 Miller 40.3%

Asst%
2008 BLANKY 25.8%
2009 Miller 31.4%

Steal%
2008 BLANKY 1.7%
2009 Miller 1.3%

PER
2008 BLANKY 14.4
2009 Miller 14.3

Usg%
2008 BLANKY 17.0
2009 Miller 21.1

Drtg
2008 BLANKY 110
2009 Miller 102
*2009 BLANKY is at 103, and he's defending PGs, so not really an upgrade.

Ortg
2008 BLANKY 118
2009 Miller 105

WS
2008 BLANKY 5.8
2009 Miller 1.0

Offensive Efficiency
2008 Blazers with BLANKY at PG - 110.7 (#2 in NBA)
2009 Blazers with Miller at PG - 103.7 (15th in NBA)

For the hell of it ...
+/-
2008 BLANKY +392
2009 Miller +63
*2009 BLANKY is leading the team at +97

If Miller has been an upgrade thus far, I'd hate to see what a downgrade would look like. At this point, the Miller signing seems to be a complete dud, at least in terms of upgrading what BLANKY did last year as the starting PG. The good news is that there is still over 80% of the season for Miller to simply get to Blake's level last season, and I do expect Miller's PER to end up higher simply due to the amount of time he spends with the ball in his hands, and the players he has to pass it to, once he consistently starts distributing.

 

Can we trade 2009 Blake for 2008 Blake?

 

How about trading 2009 Miller for 2008 Blake?

 

Stop living in 2008...

Its called having a "career year" for a reason

 

It appears Miller's career years are behind him. Hopefully he'll at least produce to Blake's level.

 

What are those same stats with this years numbers?

What are the free throw attempted numbers?

What are the I can actually throw a pass to the post numbers?

What are the I can hit people with passes where they need it numbers?

What are the I can get the team easy basket numbers?

What are the I can get Greg Oden involved early numbers?

 

I dunno. Blake had plenty of naysayers last year as well. I'd be curious to see a 2008 Blake vs. 2009 Blake comparison.

If we're going to compare apples to apples, why not compare 2008 Blake to 2008 Miller and 2009 Blake to 2009 Miller (along with the said 2008/2009 Blake comparo). Blake played very well last year but he still had a number of weaknesses.

I also believe Miller not doing as well as we had hoped is part of a Nate issue. Miller has different strengths and weaknesses than Blake but he is often expected to play a Blake role; diminishing his strengths and emphasizing his weaknesses; that is a coaching failure.

Gramps...

 

Run your own analysis. I used advanced statistics. Feel free to add your own opinions, no matter what the actual stats say.

 

Why? Miller took 2008 Blake's PG spot. The most accurate way to assess whether or not Miller is an upgrade, IMO, is to compare the statistics of them playing the same position on the same team.

The fact so far this season is this: based on advanced statistics, Andre Miller has not been an upgrade over Steve Blake. People may have differing opinions, but reading all of the "upgrade" talk fostered my decision to do an actual detailed comparison. The most telling for me is the DRAMATIC drop in offensive efficiency. This obviously says that taking the ball away from Roy and giving it to Miller has not improved the offense. Rather, it has made it worse.

 

Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Steve Blake 2008-09 28 69 2188 14.4 .557 .536 1.6 8.4 4.9 25.1 1.7 0.1 13.7 17.0 118 110 4.1 1.7 5.8
2 Andre Miller 2008-09 32 82 2976 18.6 .548 .480 4.9 9.9 7.4 30.2 2.0 0.4 14.0 21.8 115 110 6.2 2.5 8.8


http://www.basketball-reference.com...m=0&p1=millean02&y1=2009&p2=blakest01&y2=2009

 

I would like to point out something. Who was working with Blake as the SG last year? Roy averaging in the 20's. Who is playing SG next to Miller this year? Blake, averaging under 10, and Roy is at SF and obviously not comfortable there.

Part of PG production is who you are playing with. Not all on who you are.

 

Shit, stats got shifted....bottom line, In the same year, Millers numbers dominate Blakes, and this was Blakes career year

 

Great Point!

 

I'd say Miller's at a disadvantage because he's playing alongside a much worse SG.

damn, beat me to it.

 

I'm just saying Blake is struggling this year ...I wish the discussion was being made even harder by Blake playing like he was last year.

As far as the Nate part goes... I honestly don't understand how a role playing to Miller's strengths works in a lineup with Roy...and given our current roster. It's an honest question...not snarky...I really don't know. What's a good team to look at that has 2 guards that really function best with the ball in their hands that I can look at?

 

And lets not bring the stats from the playoffs last year

 

this....

 

Greg Oden's offensive production last year was better than this year. I am not sure Miller is really helping him, so far. Last year, per-36, Greg Oden scored more points and turned the ball over less. He also got his shots earlier in the possession, or at least, less of them in the last 4 seconds of the possession.

The Jury is still out, but so far, Miller has not really been the big help to Greg Oden offensively, as we hoped he would be.

I would argue however, that the insertion of Miller into the starting unit helped with taking some of the defensive pressure off Greg - simply because the 3 guards switch on the perimeter a lot better than the unit with Webster did.

 

Big difference. Blake had Roy at SG and Miller has Blake at SG.

 

You know whats funny is, we have never got to see Roy and Miller play in the same back court except in pre season. We haven't even really got to see if it can work. It's like they don't even want to try. If Nate really wanted to put this to bed, he would let them try it for a few games. If it didn't work out, the fans would see it, and realize it to be true. What's he afraid of?