Part One: Is new Portland Head Coach Terry Stotts trying to transform LaMarcus Aldridge into Dirk Nowitzki? Is Aldridge’s hip still an issue? While Aldridge’s counting numbers are only slightly down from his last two years of All Star-caliber (“LaMonster”) production, even casual fans can see that something is different with this year’s version. Whether it’s residual rust from the hip injury, not being able to work on his craft much over the summer, 8 new teammates or his role in Coach Stotts’ new offense, there’s been a lot more finesse and a lot less LaMonster in this year’s version of the All-Star power forward. Aldridge’s coming-out didn’t coincide necessarily with injuries to Greg Oden or Brandon Roy, the other (more famous?) members of Rip City’s Ex-Big Three. When Kevin Pritchard left on Draft Night 2010, he left a player who had started embracing the inside game on offense, but who had always been the secondary option. He took 36% of his shots from 10 feet and in made 64% of them. His scoring had plateaued at about 18 ppg, including 8.1ppg from outside 10 feet, 6.8ppg inside (including 11% of his shots as “tips and dunks”) and 2.9ppg on FTs in 2009-10. In 2010-11 he continued his work in the paint. Shouldering a higher percentage of the overall scoring load, Aldridge maintained the same inside/outside shot splits (64% outside 10 feet, 36% inside). However, more time in the paint meant more free throws, with slightly fewer dunks and tips. His ppg splits were 10.3 ppg outside/7.2 ppg inside/4.3 FT and coupled with a career-high 8.8 rebounds per game earned him his first All-NBA selection (3rd team). In 2011-12 he was well-positioned to be the cornerstone of a team that had retooled with enough veterans and complimentary players to make a legitimate playoff run. Unfortunately, through injuries, a short season with little time for practice, a 6th consecutive year of Coach McMillan’s slowest-in-the-league-paced offense and a collective give-up/mutiny by the team’s veterans, coaching staff and front office meant that Aldridge’s second consecutive star-caliber season (one in which he was awarded his first All-Star berth) was wasted on a team going nowhere but into the draft lottery. As the end drew near, and Kaleb Canales’ offense took shape, he stopped going into the paint as much and ended with a 68%/32% split of outside versus inside shooting (with only 7% on “dunks and tips”), his lowest percentage in the paint in 3 years. Which brings us to this year. His inside-outside splits are 18%/82% (with only 4% on dunks and tips), his lowest by far in the last 4 years and about half of his LaMonster totals. His FG% on his long-range shots has held relatively steady (45% to 44% to 42% this year), but almost exclusively taking the least-efficient shot in basketball is going to hurt your overall efficiency, your team’s efficiency and brings in a whole swath of second-order effects (fewer fouls on the opponents’ defenders, less energy expended by the defense, more time the starters can play, worse position to rebound, longer rebounds leading to opponents transition baskets, to name a few). It’s no coincidence that his offensive rebounding percentage has gone from 10.1% in 2010-11 to 8.6% last year to 4.9% this year. Why the change? One factor could be the hip surgery. Despite original protestations that the labral tear suffered in April was much less severe than the one he injured in 2005 at the University of Texas, he’s admitted both that after 7 years in the league he “has lost a step” and that, after a summer of not being able to walk, his timing isn’t back yet. Then again, it could be the new offense. Aldridge addressed his more perimeter-based game earlier this month to Ben Golliver: “With Nate [McMillan] it was more of me on the block all game, all day. People got used to seeing me in that light. The team was easier to scheme against. Now we have more movement. When asked if that makes him more of a finesse player, he replied that “I think people take my game as finesse but they don't see me banging Chuck Hayes six times to get to that spot and then shoot it. People just see my jumpshots, they don't see what I'm doing to get to my spots.” As a non-coach I don’t know how banging with Chuck Hayes to get to a jumpshooting position is better or worse for movement than banging with Chuck Hayes to get on the block, but I do know that the efficiency of the shot—and therefore the offense—is significantly better with him shooting from the block rather than outside. Dirk Nowitzki (who Coach Stotts may be profiling Aldridge as?) shoots a higher split of long jumpers, but is consistently in the 48%-to-54% range, including enough 3-point makes to boost his True Shooting Percentage to the high-50s to low-60s percent. Last year Aldridge, for the first time, had a mark above 55%, and has regressed to 47% this year. Maybe the hip is still a big deal, and it’s something Aldridge will work through. Maybe it’s the first step of Stotts turning Aldridge into Dirk Junior. But until Aldridge can extend his range to the 3 point line and starts shooting about 10% better on his long jumpers (to say nothing of rebounding), then the offense will stagnate—movement or not—and the transition defense will continue to be tested. http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/i...ers_building_blocks_lamarcus_aldridge_th.html http://www.blazersedge.com/2012/11/...-aldridge-ive-definitely-lost-one-of-my-steps http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01.html http://dimemag.com/2012/10/what-lamarcus-aldridge-must-do-to-be-the-nbas-best-power-forward/
There are a lot of factors at play, but IMHO 2 things stand out. First, LMA does not have that "lead dog" attitude. He really needs a "killer instinct" implant. Second, I am worried that the hip condition is both chronic and more serious than the team has acknowledged. I've known people who recovered from a hip replacement faster than LMA has recovered from what was billed as minor surgery.
He's a 3rd option on a contending team IMO. Stotts has let LMA play at the elbow most of the time and his FG% shows that this is not a good idea. I think it's time to keep the P&P at a minimum and start running more ISO's and P&R's.
Charts would help the reader absorb all those statistics. If the hip were the cause, it would be more evident. The 4 causes are 1) Olshey's mandate to Stotts to turn him into a Nowitzki, 2) Stotts' general system, 3) new competition on every rebound and scoring opportunity from playing alongside Hickson and Batum, and 4) the fact that McMillan's class system highlighted Roy and Aldridge to the detriment of Batum. There's the outline for your second draft.
