Don't get on much anymore, but I thought I could gin up one of these for the post-lotto. Sorry in advance for the long read. There are a bunch of options on the table for the Blazers this draft season. There’s a pretty decent consensus among the mocks and NBA guys that there are 7 pretty good bets for the top 6 picks (well, after Davis’ lock to be #1, more like 6 bets for 5): Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (SF/PF), Thomas Robinson (SF/PF), Bradley Beal (SG), Andre Drummond (C), Harrison Barnes (SF) and Damian Lillard (PG). Many also agree that there’s a solid tier after that of guys like Jared Sullinger (PF), Kendall Marshall (PG), Dion Waiters (SG/PG), Terrence Ross (SG), Perry Jones III (PF/SF), John Henson (C) and Tyler Zeller (C), in addition to whichever Workout Warrior zooms up the board over the next month. So here’s one bozo’s analysis. First, the facts. 1. Portland has the #6 and #11 pick in the first round, and the #40 and #41 overall in the second round. Depending on how bad they are next year, they may not have a pick (1st to CHA – top 12 protected—and 2nd to DEN—top 40 protected) 2. POR will likely be ~$12M under the salary cap on July 1, after renouncing all of their free agents aside from Batum and Hickson, having Crawford decline his player option and Williams pick up his and including the cap holds for Claver ($1.045M), Freeland ($850k) and the #6 ($2.55M) and #11 picks ($1.77M). ** If Hickson is renounced, that bumps it up to almost $17M in cap space. **Thanks to Storyteller for the numbers. Check out his site at storytellerscontracts.com 3. If all those FA’s are renounced, the Blazers have the following roster going into the draft: PG: Nolan Smith SG: Wesley Matthews, Elliot Williams SF: Nicolas Batum (RFA), Luke Babbitt, Shawne Williams’ Contract PF: LaMarcus Aldridge C: Kurt “the Ageless One” Thomas and rights to Victor Claver (SF) and Joel Freeland (PF) from overseas. Assumptions and SWAGs One is that there’s an offer of Wes Matthews and the #6 pick for Joakim Noah or to CLE for Varejao and #24. This seems like good value, but it’ll hinder (by a bit) our cap space and remove the shot of getting a young, high-quality, low-priced stud at #6. Another is that both Wes and Batum are on the Training Camp roster. In that case SG/SF is a Position of Luxury since we currently have Kurt Thomas and Nolan Smith as our starting C/PG. The last is that it is a possibility to open up the #11 pick to trade to BOS for 21/22. Draft Analysis This year, if a PG is taken with the 6th pick (Lillard or Marshall), then you’re stuck either drafting BPA at an already-filled-by-Wes Matthews-and-Nic Batum SG/SF position (Ross, Rivers, Waiters, PJ3, Miller, Lamb) or reaching a lot for one of the few bigs left (unless you like taking Zeller here, which I’m not sure is the right answer). If you take a big with the 6th pick (Drummond, Henson, Robinson) then you’re running the risk that Marshall and Lillard are both gone at 11. And while Drummond/Ross or Robinson/Terrence Jones wouldn’t be the most horrible draft outcome, you’re still looking at Nolan Smith and whoever you want to spend 12-17M on as your PG and you may or may not be playing LMA out of position at C. I’m not sure that’s the right answer, either. There are at least five options, then: 1. Just take BPA of the Top 7 available at #6. If all the bigs are gone, take Lillard. If Lillard’s gone, take whoever drops of Robinson/Drummond/ Beal/MKG. Stay away from Barnes (remember, Position of Luxury). (Why Beal and not Barnes, you may ask, since we’re talking Position of Luxury? Well, it’s not the best outcome, but most smart NBA people think that Beal’s got at least one True NBA Skill in his long-range shot. Barnes could end up being Marvin Williams.) Then, take BPA at 11 (regardless of position). Unless you chose Beal at 6, there should be a glut of SG-types available at 11 and you can choose the one you like best. If you DID take Beal at 6, then you are stuck either reaching for a big at 11 or adding to the glut at SG/SF. Verdict: Not the best, but probably the “safest” and least open to criticism from national media. 2. Trade the #6 and Matthews to CHI for Noah, or to CLE for Varejao and #24. Use the #11 on the best available SG/SF (Ross, Rivers, PJ3?) This one makes more sense if CHI or CLE would do it. With LMA, you don’t necessarily have the option of waiting out his prime for a team of young’uns to catch up to his All-NBA level. Loading up with new PGs, C’s and SG’s/6th Men and waiting for 2016 to roll around probably isn’t on his to-do list. Pairing him with a high-motor garbageman (with enough skills to keep a D honest) keeps him fresher and more able to focus on the offensive end and transition. This gives you a really solid frontcourt of Batum/LMA/Noah (or Sideshow Bob) with a pure shooter at the 2—the only thing left is to find a PG. Anyone know a high-level free agent PG who wants to win now? One issue with this plan is that, unless you can persuade CHI to take one of our young bench guys or Williams’ contact back, you’re losing about $2M in cap space. That obviously hinders the team’s ability to sign a player to a max-ish deal. Verdict: Pretty sweet, if you can get your PG. 3. Trade LMA and Matthews for the highest pick(s) you can get. (Thermonuclear rebuild option) Let me start by saying that I don’t think there’s any way PA does this. However, if you’re so inclined, you can jump-start a rebuild much the same way SEA/OKC did in 2007. LMA might look good to DC or CHA (especially if Nate McMillan gets picked up there) as a no-risk use of their pick for a much-needed and good-fitting post player, while POR picks up a younger, cheaper frontcourt player like MKG (my personal favorite) or Robinson or Drummond. Then you can use 6 and 11 and whatever Wes brings you to get a PG (Lillard?) and the BPAs, take your lumps this season, get a lotto pick in 2013 (it’s protected for just that scenario) and go into the 2013-14 season with 4 or 5 starting lotto picks and bucketloads of cap space. Verdict: Interesting hypothetical, lots of "hmmm" parts, but no way it happens on PA's watch. 4. Check out the value of the #11 (and see if you can pick up Boston’s 21 and 22 picks). This allows BOS to jump up to, say, get Rivers to replace Ray Allen. Some say that you don’t trade out of the lotto for late picks, and that the Blazers won’t get equal value for that. I submit the following: Year #11 Choice #21 and #22 Choice 2011: Klay Thompson or Faried and (overreach) Smith 2010: Cole Aldrich, or James Anderson/Craig Brackins 2009: Terrence Williams, or Darren Collison/Victor Claver 2008: Jerryd Bayless, or Ryan Anderson/Courtney Lee 2007: Acie Law, or Daequan Cook/Jared Dudley 2006: JJ Redick, or Rajon Rondo/Marcus Williams 2005: Fran Vasquez, or Nate Robinson/Jarrett Jack Depending on who we take at 6 (either Lillard or a big), there will be the aforementioned reach for a big at 11 or a glut of SG/SF’s. Dropping down to 21 and 22 gets you roughly the same value of player (unless you think Ross or someone else is a tier above) and you get two chances, allowing you to take one safe pick and one dice roll, or two contributors. Someone of the Wroten/Leonard/T.Jones/Harkless/Moultrie/White group is going to drop. If there were unlimited $3M cash trades this year (allowing Uncle Paul to buy up first-rounders like candy) then I wouldn’t even be putting this out there. But restricted to only one, in a deep draft like this? I don't think you can pull the KP Plan off this draft. Verdict: If we’re standing pat on trades, I like the value here. Then again, I’m a risk-taker. I'd like to grab a big here and go with something like Wroten/White or Wroten/Fournier at 21/22. 5. Trade the #6 for a lower lotto pick and a 2013-2016 first round pick Right now, the team is hamstrung a bit with its trade of the 2013 first-rounder to CHA (part of the 2011 Wallace trade). It’s top-12 protected, which sounds like a good plan. However, it also means that there isn’t a concrete scenario for when it will actually be able to be used by CHA, which means that the Stepien Rule is in effect for the team and none of its first-round picks are able to be traded. I mean, let's say for giggles that BKN would accept our two lotto picks (after we use them in the draft, of course) and our 2015 for and signed-and-traded Deron Williams. We don't know that we'll be good enough in 2012-13 to have to give up our pick, which would move us giving it up to 2014. But then we can't trade 2014 AND 2015 b/c they're back to back. And the protection goes out almost as far as you can trade picks for, so ditto for 2016, 2017 and 2018. So that's one piece of ammo we can't trade away. Unless we get a future first from someone trying to move up. Then the team can trade that anytime it wants to. (more explanation here) Verdict: This is a move if we don’t like what’s left at #6, but someone in the 8-14 range wants to jump up a Tier. If we had a GM, I’d say that this is a “chess” move, not “checkers”. Final Call Obviously, the hiring (?) of a new General Manager and Head Coach may change the team’s direction. The entire spectrum of strategies from a 2007 SEA/OKC-style rebuild to a “go for it NOW!” run at high-priced veterans and free agents are on the table. But my gut feel is that Paul Allen doesn’t have the stomach for another tear-down and rebuild. My gut feel is that staking your hopes to getting a max-level free agent (without significant trades and luck) is a strategy that the Blazers have been burned by in years past. I also feel that whomever among the Bower/Olshey/Morway candidates rumored to be in the final GM running is someone smart enough to think about chess moves rather than reactionary quick fixes. Therefore, (if CHI or CLE plays along) I think that they’d think the best move would be to trade one of the picks (and/or someone not named LMA) for an established player and taking BPA with the other pick, while hoping for a solid PG in free agency. I hope I’m wrong, though, and we either start a massive rebuild or play it straight in the draft and get lucky in the free agency period. Mediocre late lotto picks every year are the death knell for a franchise. My personal favorite players for us in this draft are MKG (if we can at all go up to get him) or Robinson at 6, Ross at 11, Wroten, Fournier, Moultrie and/or White if we can get something at 21/22, Kim English and either Kyle O'Quinn or Jae Crowder at 40/41. I don't have a good vibe about Waiters, Barnes (unless he fell to 11), PJ3, or Henson. Drummond's risky. Could be awesome, could be a bust, and I don't have a clue which. I don't have the same aversion to white US college boys that some do, but I wouldn't take Zeller or Leonard before 20. Now, back to Dari and the two kiddos. Thanks for reading.
30 year-old Varajao and the #24 for the #6 and Wes? Gross. This would be a weak re-tooling move. Definitely not the direction this team needs to go into.
Decent point. But right now our centers are Kurt Thomas, Kurt Thomas and an all-star PF who doesn't like playing center. Assuming that Drummond isn't there, you're not getting a better center than Varejao at 6. Moving Wes creates more cap space. I'm relatively certain that you can find at 24, 40 or 41 someone who brings us 80%+ of what Wes gives us for 1/10 the price. I'd much rather have Noah, but Sideshow Bob fits the same mold.
With that mindset I'd much rather let Batum walk and focus my attention on Brook Lopez. This isn't just a mid-first, the #6 in a top-heavy draft is a lot more valuable than that. Looking at the big picture IMO: Lopez/Barnes > Batum/Varejao PS. Great post btw
Hey Brian.......The HCP didn't even notice you haven't been around much! In spite of this....... nice post FAMS!
You think that NJN will let Lopez go for anything close to what we should pay for him? If you're going to retool (vice rebuild) you need a garbageman/defender next to LMA. He's shown for 6 years that that's not his game. He's awesome in other areas, but he's not going to handle the scoring load, defending the best post on the other team and run up and down the floor for 40 minutes on a winning team. So you can take the chance on Drummond if he's available, or (heaven forbid) Zeller or Leonard or Henson and hope that he grows up quickly. But I'll just say that it took Bynum 7 years as a project to get to the point he is now as a mostly-dominant big. Whereas if you have, say, (?)/Beal or Ross/Batum/LMA/Noah, and 15+ million in cap room, you become pretty attractive to Free Agents and teams making lopsided trades.
My biggest gripe with that is the age. This team is still 3 years away from competing with the big dogs, and that's if future roster moves pay off. Noah is intriguing but expensive. This year will be a lot about development and maybe Freeland could be that garbage man or even Tyler Zeller (#11). With the new CBA taking on large contract is risky.
Aldridge is only 26, he's an All-Star, he's on a very affordable longterm contract, and he isn't a knucklehead like Cousins. Plus they get Salmons' shitty deal off their books. I wouldn't poo poo it too much.
I'd move the 6th and change to get Thomas Robinson. Move LMA to the 5. You get an elite rebounder next to Aldridge. Move the 11th and some change to take Lamb. Sign one of Deron Williams or Dragic as your point guard. Use one or two of our second rounders to move up and take a legit center. This team would be ready to contend after these moves. PG - D. Williams SG - Lamb/E. Williams SF - Batum/Matthews/Babbit PF - Robinson/Hickson C - Aldridge/Joel/2nd rounders
There's always a chance that Robinson drops to us. It's hard to predict the draft right now because I think things will change a lot over the next month. People will rise, people will fall, and there's always someone who falls on draft night. Could be Beal, could be MKG, or it could be Robinson.
Speaking of Rondo... The Celtics recently worked out Harrison Barnes and Terrence Ross earlier this week. I think they are planning on trading up. Rondo is the only asset on that entire roster worth a lotto pick. Interesting.
If we could get Rondo for the two picks, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Maybe they're talking to Sac. Tyreke and the 5th for Rondo.
Look Brian you are not going to be able to fill all of the Blazers holes in one year...there are just too many...this team is talent deficient in a pretty bad way...your 2nd best player (Batum) is an RFA who is probably going to command a contract for more than he is worth....I like Matthews but he is best served as a player coming off the bench...Nolan Smith has not shown he is capable of being a b\u PG let alone ANYTHING close to a starter, and I would argue he is your 3rd string SG behind Matthews and E-Will and I would gladly draft a number of SG prospects in the draft to start over ANY of those 3 guys...Luke Babbitt has at least shown he isn''t a complete waste of a 16th pick....but at this point he appears best suited as a situational shooter off the bench not a core reserve, let alone starter.... too many holes to fill them all, something has got to give....It doesn't surprise me at all that POR is actively trying to bring Freeland and Claver over, why shouldn't they? I mean they have a TON of holes to fill...Same goes for resigning Przybilla who would be a good b\u center and serviceable (if needed) starting center... I think focusing on a center is a mistake....look, there are only a handful of centers (Howard, Bynum, maybe McGee?) out there who LA or a banger like Hickson would have trouble with and I would argue that those guys would be trouble for ANY center POR could realistically draft or sign as a FA...I don't think it is a wise move to try and fill the center spot at the expense of better talent..... I would not trade the #6 pick (let alone both picks) unless it was for an all star caliber player who was young (23-27)...very few of those guys come to mind...Rondo, Harden for example and I just don't see those teams trading them.....especially OKC...Maybe BOS might deal Rondo WITH Pierce for both picks and a player (E-Will) but by doing so you are also giving up most of your cap space....Does Rondo\Pierce\Batum\LA make a title contending team? Doubtful, but playoff team for sure maybe capable of winning a round or two....but what is Allen's goal? To have a playoff team or win a championship? If it is the latter then your going to have to bite the bullet and rebuild... You have LA at age 26, so there is time, heck how old was Pierce when BOS got Allen and KG? 28? 29? Give 2 rookies 2-3 years and if you drafted right, with LA at age 29 your actually in a better position IMO. Use both picks, don't trade them...go BPA with an eye to upside on both of them...a small chance T.Robinson drops, I would take him in a second, same for Beal (doubt he drops either)....I would look at Barnes as well...Drummond concerns me, much bigger risk than any other player IMO....I really like Perry Jones for his upside potential....same with Lamb...I doubt either is there at #11, both should be at #6 though....I would stay away from Sulilnger, I like him, but injury red flags (back\leg) and history with Oden\Roy, this franchise cannot afford another episode like that... Use the $12-$13 million in cap space to go after a PG...Dragic is a UFA...HOU may want to resign him, but they have no edge financially that I am aware of....Do they match an $8-$9\year deal when they already have Lowry at $5+ mil? and does Dragic want to come back to share time with Lowry or run the show somewhere else? I seriously doubt HOU would deal Lowry w\o Dragic signed and delivered 1st... If not Dragic there are other PG out there...George Hill would be next on my list...He is an RFA, so a little risk there....but IND is very cap conscious and has a bigger fish to sign 1st in Roy Hibbert and they do have a PG in Collison to easily replace Hill... After that you go down a notch to guys like Aaron Brooks, DJ Augustin & Jameer Nelson...all serviceable, but nothing exciting...but then again free agency for POR is more about getting quality vets to fill holes than a bonafide star player...guys like D-Will, Gordon, McGee & Hibbert are not coming here...and POR doesn't have the time with Batum's situation to mess around with those guys anyway...I think trading for a PG is a dumb idea...you trade away a good asset (a pick) and either waste some of your cap space (hindering FA signing) or have to deal another player (like Matthews) away...I dislike trading away assets and screwing up cap space to get a player that is within the range of a player I could sign as a free agent w\o having to give up any assets.... Go after Dragic, Hill in that order... Use draft picks on BPA...My order would be T.Robinson, Beal, Barnes, P.Jones at #6...P.Jones (if he miraculously slipped), Lamb, Rivers at #11...Find a way to get Kyle O'Quinn in the 2nd (or trade up) and if rumours are true and POR can acquire a late 1st for fairly cheap, maybe a kid like Wroten, Teague or T.Taylor with that pick.... bring over Freeland and Claver Resign Pryz... Use exception to waive S.Williams and gain a little cap space (I forget the name of it) Depending on bird rights decision...offer QFO to Hickson and resign him and Batum after you signed Dragic or Hill and another free agent for $3-5mil Use remaining $3-5 mil on a mid tier vet FA, maybe a another vet PG like Hinrich? PG: Dragic, Hinrich, Wroten, SG: Lamb, Matthews, E-Will SF: Batum, P.Jones, Babbitt, Claver PF: LA, Hickson, Thomas C: Pryz, Freeland, O'Quinn Hickson could start alongside LA against most teams...Freeland could play a little center (as could Thomas in a pinch), OQuinn is a sleeper who could offer some minutes there as well... Like the idea of running Batum at SG, Jones as SF and LA at PF at times... 6'9. 6'11 & 6'11...long, very athletic and can run...Lamb aslo has some great height\athleticism...
